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Thailand Tourist Arrivals To Hit 20 Million This Year

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Maybe my maths is a bit wobbly but that's 100,000 bucks per tourist

The original definition of a trillion was a million million millions but has since been watered down to a million millions. Based on the original trillion your calculation of 100,000 dollars is about right. However, I would believe it to be more like this:

THB2,000,000,000,000(2 trillion) total tourism revenue divided by 20,000,000 tourists equals THB100,000 per tourist. exchange rate between 28 and 30 depending whether Australian or US dollars and average per tourist is about $3333-$3571. Not unreasonable, some people stay at places like Trat and Pai and spend very little, some stay in Pattaya, Bangkok and Phuket and spend quite a bit.

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pretty challenging figure of 20 million pax arrivals, not sure what last yr. arrival count was, lets say 15 mio., then it equates to

a 25% increase over 2011. Considering the flood inundation last year, possibly the tourists who cancelled last year are making the trip - especially in Q4.

I would think 2013 will be ever more challenging for Thailand as Myanmar has opened up and many airlines are now re-instating direct

flights there. I read today's JapanTimes newspaper and it mentioned that ANA - all nippon airways has re-instated direct flights

into Myanmar after a 12 yr. hiatus.

2011 saw an increase of near 20%. 19,000,000+ in 2011 compared to 16,000,000 in 2010. There was only one month last year that saw a significant drop in Tourism and that was November. But other months saw some huge increases.

So 15M in Jan-Sept 2012 is 8% increase over 2011, that makes 13.9M in Jan-Sept 2011.

In all of 2011 19M which means 5.1M in last three months, so this year it is expected to get 5M in the last three months. So over the whole year that would be about 5.1% increase, I think. Mind you, tourist arrival figures always confuse me blink.png

The article says there has been an increase of 8% Jan thru Sep this year as compared to last year. The say they expect tourism for Thailand to hit 20 Million this year. I don't think anything said disputes your math. I did a quick search and couldn't find numbers for Jan thru Sep. but found some for Jan thru Nov which had the number at 17,105,283. So, your 15.1M is probably accurate.

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2011 saw an increase of near 20%. 19,000,000+ in 2011 compared to 16,000,000 in 2010. There was only one month last year that saw a significant drop in Tourism and that was November. But other months saw some huge increases.

So 15M in Jan-Sept 2012 is 8% increase over 2011, that makes 13.9M in Jan-Sept 2011.

In all of 2011 19M which means 5.1M in last three months, so this year it is expected to get 5M in the last three months. So over the whole year that would be about 5.1% increase, I think. Mind you, tourist arrival figures always confuse me blink.png

The article says there has been an increase of 8% Jan thru Sep this year as compared to last year. The say they expect tourism for Thailand to hit 20 Million this year. I don't think anything said disputes your math. I did a quick search and couldn't find numbers for Jan thru Sep. but found some for Jan thru Novwhich had the number at 17,105,283. So, your 15.1M is probably accurate.

5.1M in last three months of 2011 and 5M expected in last three months of 2012. I wonder why this slowdown. Is it the delayed effect of 2011 flooding, as the last three months of 2011 seems to have been normal to good? Is tourism to Thailand slowing for other reasons? I'm not into this, I have no explanation, only questions wai.gif

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Guys don't forget this news is for local gullible consumption, not for the likes of us.

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2011 saw an increase of near 20%. 19,000,000+ in 2011 compared to 16,000,000 in 2010. There was only one month last year that saw a significant drop in Tourism and that was November. But other months saw some huge increases.

So 15M in Jan-Sept 2012 is 8% increase over 2011, that makes 13.9M in Jan-Sept 2011.

In all of 2011 19M which means 5.1M in last three months, so this year it is expected to get 5M in the last three months. So over the whole year that would be about 5.1% increase, I think. Mind you, tourist arrival figures always confuse me blink.png

The article says there has been an increase of 8% Jan thru Sep this year as compared to last year. The say they expect tourism for Thailand to hit 20 Million this year. I don't think anything said disputes your math. I did a quick search and couldn't find numbers for Jan thru Sep. but found some for Jan thru Novwhich had the number at 17,105,283. So, your 15.1M is probably accurate.

5.1M in last three months of 2011 and 5M expected in last three months of 2012. I wonder why this slowdown. Is it the delayed effect of 2011 flooding, as the last three months of 2011 seems to have been normal to good? Is tourism to Thailand slowing for other reasons? I'm not into this, I have no explanation, only questions wai.gif

Why do you expect only 5 Million the last 3-months of the year? I think you are trying incredibly hard to confuse yourself or others by making up the fact anyone predicts the number of tourist arrivals will only be 20 Million this year. Reread the OP, nothing in the article comes close to saying this. They had a goal of 20 Million for the year and they are simply saying they are going to hit that goal. There is clearly no prediction at all in this article to what the final number will be except that they are very confident the goal, they previously set for the year, will be reached given the current number of tourists heading into the high season.

Edited by Nisa

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5 Million could happen but really can't see it happening in all truth due to people not having money to spend plus Christmas is around the corner ... coffee1.gif

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5 Million could happen but really can't see it happening in all truth due to people not having money to spend plus Christmas is around the corner ... coffee1.gif

Is this a serious post?

Since when have Chinese etc celebrated Christmas? And it's the West that it's struggling at the moment not the East and if you read the thread you'll know that the East is where most tourists are coming from.

They'll easily hit 25% of the overall target in the last quarter, typically the second busiest quarter for tourism.

Edited by madmitch

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5 Million could happen but really can't see it happening in all truth due to people not having money to spend plus Christmas is around the corner ... coffee1.gif

Is this a serious post?

Since when have Chinese etc celebrated Christmas? And it's the West that it's struggling at the moment not the East and if you read the thread you'll know that the East is where most tourists are coming from.

They'll easily hit 25% of the overall target in the last quarter, typically the second busiest quarter for tourism.

I was taking the piss ... laugh.pnglaugh.png but still people do like to get away for Christmas & New Year .. lets be honest now but the last few Christmas here in LOS have been awful will in Pattaya anyway and don't see anything changing there this year ..

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5 Million could happen but really can't see it happening in all truth due to people not having money to spend plus Christmas is around the corner ... coffee1.gif

Is this a serious post?

Since when have Chinese etc celebrated Christmas? And it's the West that it's struggling at the moment not the East and if you read the thread you'll know that the East is where most tourists are coming from.

They'll easily hit 25% of the overall target in the last quarter, typically the second busiest quarter for tourism.

I was taking the piss ... laugh.pnglaugh.png but still people do like to get away for Christmas & New Year .. lets be honest now but the last few Christmas here in LOS have been awful will in Pattaya anyway and don't see anything changing there this year ..

To clarify, what do you mean by awful, not many tourists or too many? From a western and personal perspective I can't see going on vacation during Christmas unless it is to see family and certainly wouldn't feel very festive spending Christmas in Pattaya but I could swear when booking online I have seen many hotels have a High & Low Season price and an X-Mas / New Year price. So, I am guessing it may be the biggest couple weeks of the year when it comes to tourism..

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5 Million could happen but really can't see it happening in all truth due to people not having money to spend plus Christmas is around the corner ... coffee1.gif

Is this a serious post?

Since when have Chinese etc celebrated Christmas? And it's the West that it's struggling at the moment not the East and if you read the thread you'll know that the East is where most tourists are coming from.

They'll easily hit 25% of the overall target in the last quarter, typically the second busiest quarter for tourism.

I was taking the piss ... laugh.pnglaugh.png but still people do like to get away for Christmas & New Year .. lets be honest now but the last few Christmas here in LOS have been awful will in Pattaya anyway and don't see anything changing there this year ..

To clarify, what do you mean by awful, not many tourists or too many? From a western and personal perspective I can't see going on vacation during Christmas unless it is to see family and certainly wouldn't feel very festive spending Christmas in Pattaya but I could swear when booking online I have seen many hotels have a High & Low Season price and an X-Mas / New Year price. So, I am guessing it may be the biggest couple weeks of the year when it comes to tourism..

No tourism at all .. bars are empty well they have been now for the last 3 years now during Christmas ..

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Mr Suwat said the ministry goal for tourism revenue was set to reach Bt2 trillion in 2015

These numbers seem to just roll off the tongues of these ministers, 15 million visitors so far this year? Someone forgot to tell the restaurant and bars, because all I hear is that it has been a quiet year! They may have had 15 million 'pass through' the airport transit lounges.

Chiangmai officials said that tourism was down something like 8% (cant recall exact figure) but it WAS down.

No doubt when Oct 2015 arrives Mr Suwat (if he is still in office) will say loud and clear, "we have had 1.5 Trillion visitors so far this year and are well on target to achieve the 2 Trillion I predicted three years ago" cheesy.gifcheesy.gifcheesy.gif

cheesy.gifcheesy.gifcheesy.gif I love it when guys like you accuse people of making things up when I read your own abusurd personal speculation sprinkled with a bit of hearsay.tongue.png

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5.1M in last three months of 2011 and 5M expected in last three months of 2012. I wonder why this slowdown. Is it the delayed effect of 2011 flooding, as the last three months of 2011 seems to have been normal to good? Is tourism to Thailand slowing for other reasons? I'm not into this, I have no explanation, only questions wai.gif

Why do you expect only 5 Million the last 3-months of the year? I think you are trying incredibly hard to confuse yourself or others by making up the fact anyone predicts the number of tourist arrivals will only be 20 Million this year. Reread the OP, nothing in the article comes close to saying this. They had a goal of 20 Million for the year and they are simply saying they are going to hit that goal. There is clearly no prediction at all in this article to what the final number will be except that they are very confident the goal, they previously set for the year, will be reached given the current number of tourists heading into the high season.

Why I only expect 5M tourist in the last three months of the year? Well simple, the Minister for Tourism said "the number of tourists will reach the targeted 20 million, as the last quarter is the high season period, and 900 charter flights will also fly to Thailand." Confident or not, but no indication the numbers will be higher. That means the last three months of this year might get less tourists than the last three months last year. Of course there is the distinct possibility the MoT will be pleasantly surprised by hordes of tourists.

BTW 900 charters with 500 passengers per plane = 450,000. Well that explains almost 10% of the 5M still expected wink.png

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5.1M in last three months of 2011 and 5M expected in last three months of 2012. I wonder why this slowdown. Is it the delayed effect of 2011 flooding, as the last three months of 2011 seems to have been normal to good? Is tourism to Thailand slowing for other reasons? I'm not into this, I have no explanation, only questions wai.gif

Why do you expect only 5 Million the last 3-months of the year? I think you are trying incredibly hard to confuse yourself or others by making up the fact anyone predicts the number of tourist arrivals will only be 20 Million this year. Reread the OP, nothing in the article comes close to saying this. They had a goal of 20 Million for the year and they are simply saying they are going to hit that goal. There is clearly no prediction at all in this article to what the final number will be except that they are very confident the goal, they previously set for the year, will be reached given the current number of tourists heading into the high season.

Why I only expect 5M tourist in the last three months of the year? Well simple, the Minister for Tourism said "the number of tourists will reach the targeted 20 million, as the last quarter is the high season period, and 900 charter flights will also fly to Thailand." Confident or not, but no indication the numbers will be higher. That means the last three months of this year might get less tourists than the last three months last year. Of course there is the distinct possibility the MoT will be pleasantly surprised by hordes of tourists.

BTW 900 charters with 500 passengers per plane = 450,000. Well that explains almost 10% of the 5M still expected wink.png

Again, you are going out of your way to confuse and distort a very simply thing that has already been explained. Actual, Expected and Goals are all different things. In regards to this article ... NOBODY said tourism would not exceed 20 Million this year. NOBODY said or even hinted or suggest the number of tourist this year would only be 20 Million. In fact, NOBODY predicted what the the total number will be except to toot their horn to say they will meet their goal.

If you want to know what they expect the total number to be then I suggest you look at a different article or look it up as I am sure the number is out there. Earlier this month they were expecting the number of total tourists for the year to reach 21.5 Million which would be an increase of 13% year over year and an extra 1.5 Million (above your 5 Million) to add to your calculations for the last months of the year. http://www.etravelblackboardasia.com/article/86808/thai-forecast-extra-intl-travellers

Edited by Nisa

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I wonder what planes they are using now...!?

Another 5 million tourists (for the rest of the high season) on the "remaining" 900 flights is roughly equivalent to 5500 people per flight??

Or are they coming in suitcases now too?

To be fair he did say charter flights rather than scheduled flights or buses, taxis, walk in, etc.

Really..??

So you can pick out where the word(s) 'charter flight' are mentioned in the original article can you??

What I see is:

"He said the number of tourists will reach the targeted 20 million, as the last quarter is the high season period, and 900 charter flights will also fly to Thailand."

Or are you reading something I am not...?

Yeah, I think he's reading the article

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I would love to see===all cross border workers NOT classed as tourists.

all visa runs (forced to exit-entry) NOT classed as tourists

all transit and similar NOT classed as tourists

business-work NOT classed as tourists

an. other

ONLY holidays / vacation, we could then have seperate stats, and true figures to work on. I may be wrong with part of this post but hope most posters will get my drift. let posters argue about what figures are given because no one will ever know.

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