Popular Post webfact Posted May 27, 2013 Popular Post Share Posted May 27, 2013 REGIONAL PERSPECTIVEThailand withers as Myanmar risesKavi ChongkittavornThe NationBANGKOK: -- Last Thursday while Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra was meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at his residence and urging Japan to invest in the mega-project in Dawei, there were news headlines in Myanmar that Abe would be visiting Yangon the next day - offering loads of financial assistance and long-term economic development plans worth nearly US$1 billion. Both Japan and Myanmar have the Thilawa port in mind, not the proposed Dawei development plan, for the time being.Earlier in the same week in the US, President Thein Sein of Myanmar was tete-a-tete with President Barack Obama at the White House. The meeting was followed by the signing of a trade and investment framework agreement to boost their bilateral trade and economic dialogue and cooperation — something which Thailand, the Americans' oldest ally in the region, has not yet done.By the way, Yingluck has not officially visited the White House either. And should we forget, Thailand and the US are celebrating their 180-year-old relationship on Wednesday at the Foreign Ministry with a reception, photo exhibition and some cultural performances. It was a much scaled-down version of the grand celebration discussed last year.There is a strong sense of let-down in Thailand as Myanmar rises with all kinds of optimism. Now Thein Sein is known in the US as "the icon of reform", while "the icon of democracy" is the label given to opposition party leader Aung San Suu Kyi, by the US president during her visit to Washington earlier. Indeed, both Thein Sein and Suu Kyi are working together to upgrade their country's profile and have earned rapid international recognition.Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Surapong Towichakchaikul visited Washington DC and met with new US State Secretary John Kerry in early May. There was a short two-paragraph press release about their meeting, which was supposed to be a strategic dialogue. No details were given, even when Kerry said the two countries would work out plans for the next 180 years.Thailand used to be at the centre of foreign policy initiatives emanating from Japan and the US concerning this part of the world. Those days are gone. Now, the Land of Smiles is being replaced by Myanmar. During the Bush administration, Myanmar was named as one of three members in the "axis of evil". Now, 20 months after the initial reforms, the country has become the most sought after by the major powers and regional groupings, particularly the EU. Myanmar is so popular that some Western countries are loosening up their judgement on human rights and governance issues, revealing their hypocrisy to the bones.For instance, the plight of the Rohingyas is no longer in the news even though they continue to suffer and their future remains in limbo. The culprits are still out there. The most interesting aspect is how Thailand is now under close scrutiny for its treatment of the Rohingyas who have been stranded in the country for the past 10 months. Thai authorities are not very happy with the criticism waged by the West. The six-month visa extension period will soon have expired and Bangkok is facing a huge dilemma whether to expel the refugees or prolong their stay as no third country has come forward to resettle them.Diplomats and businessmen interviewed by the author in Yangon recently shared two similar assessments of Myanmar. First, Myanmar is serious about its ongoing reforms in both political and economic areas. They concluded the reforms there will move ahead and accelerate after Thein Sein's visit to the US.Second, they like to deal with officials and the private sector in Myanmar, as the people know exactly what they want. As a late-comer, Myanmar wants to maximise the existing window of opportunity. In contrast, Thailand is still stuck in a vicious cycle of colour politics and efforts to bring Thaksin Shinawatra home. The game of tussle will continue.After the end of World War II, Thailand was seen as a bulwark against its communist neighbours - until the collapse of the Berlin Wall. Since then, Thailand's strategic imperatives have receded to the point of insignificance. After the pronouncement of the US re-balancing policy in November 2011, which Thailand welcomed, Bangkok and Washington are hard at work to revive defence and security cooperation under their alliance. Yet somehow, a sense of disconnectedness still prevails between the two capitals. Other neighbouring countries have easily adjusted to the new realignment.Myanmar indicated to the US three years ago it wanted to distance itself from China and cultivate diversified relations with other major countries such as the EU, India and Japan. As part of such a diversion, Naypyidaw was willing to do whatever it took to reach a level of trust and comfort with the West — release political prisoners, cease its meddling with missiles and nuclear projects from North Korea, continue dialogue and reconciliation with minority groups, among others. Miraculously, it took exactly two years for President Thein Sein to reach the White House.From now on, Myanmar will feature in the overall US strategic blueprint for Southeast Asia. Under this security umbrella, the US will continue to engage with Myanmar and to strengthen its relations, especially security and military education, to a new level. Despite ongoing human violations in ethnic areas and other oppressive activities, Washington would be willing to lower its critical voice as it did in the past with friends in Latin America. Given the new strategic landscape in Southeast Asia, Myanmar will have wider room to breathe and to consolidate its position in the region and global arena vis-a-vis the ongoing conflict with the armed ethnic groups at home.At this juncture, Thailand has to wake up to the harsh reality that the US, despite diplomatic pleasantries, is no longer playing the waiting game it used to. With the rise of China and diplomatic commitments that come with it, Washington does not favour Bangkok's approach. The impression among US policy-makers and academics is persistently strong that Thailand is a pro-China country. So, it is difficult to have a genuine alliance with Thailand under the new security environment. Other remaining US allies in the region — Australia, Japan, South Korea and the Philippines—do not have such a problem. The Foreign Ministry often reiterates that it has never chosen any side, particularly between the US and China - but in the real diplomatic world, day-to-day actions speak louder than words. Thailand has leaned toward China for all good and practical reasons.Unless there are substantive changes in the Foreign Ministry's top echelon and some basic diplomatic tenets, the country's foreign policy related to major powers will be further undermined. Therefore, Thailand will not be a regional catalyst as it so wishes, given its unique location in continental Southeast Asia. Its long envisaged role as the hub of Asean Connect-ivity will not be realised. As it stands today and in the foreseeable future, Myanmar is a better alternative, despite its shortcomings.-- The Nation 2013-05-27 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post MaxLee Posted May 27, 2013 Popular Post Share Posted May 27, 2013 The world moves on, while Thailand is held back by its own dictatorship ruling political mafia leaders... 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post BookMan Posted May 27, 2013 Popular Post Share Posted May 27, 2013 Myanmar has a lot of opportunities. India building the 4 land highway across it. Oil and gas possibilities off the coast. Pristine untouched coastline and islands. A largish population with a huge workforce (low skilled) at the ready. Politicians wanting foreign investment and willing to build necessary diplomatic ties. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post NeverSure Posted May 27, 2013 Popular Post Share Posted May 27, 2013 Yep. I wouldn't be surprised if car and motorcycle manufacturing were pulled out of Thailand. Corruption in importing materials with bonuses going to the officials, high, high taxes on vehicles making prices ridiculous, the new minimum wage and a lot of other non-friendly business ideas would drive me away. It's really hard to start a business in Thailand, and even harder to follow the rules. Thailand is also loyal only to itself. It does indeed stand still, think it's the "hub," while other countries pass it by. I have been predicting another crash in Thailand and I still believe I'll see it. No one will loan Thailand the money for the high speed rail or the port when they can't even manage their rice exports. Thailand's credit already sucks and they have to pay a relatively high interest rate to pay for their deficits, so what will happen now that the West is deserting them? 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post kennedy Posted May 27, 2013 Popular Post Share Posted May 27, 2013 This is what happens when you try to butter your bread on both sides. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post EyesWideOpen Posted May 27, 2013 Popular Post Share Posted May 27, 2013 The price of corruption. Smart people have been predicting this for a long time. Will be curious to see if Thailand actually responds to this challenge, or just keeps repeating to itself that it is the master race of Asia, and keeps its head in the sand..... 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LuckyLew Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 So Thailand can be the HUB of countries being ignored by the White House I am sure there are reason why YS had not visited of has not been invited to the white house, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post jackr Posted May 27, 2013 Popular Post Share Posted May 27, 2013 It's good to see and a long time coming, Burma was always meant to be an Asian tiger and our genial hosts seriously need a reality check. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzMick Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 I was going to make a smarmy comment about the back-end of a horse, until I checked and found the withers are on the other end of its spine - bugger. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post ratcatcher Posted May 27, 2013 Popular Post Share Posted May 27, 2013 So Thailand can be the HUB of countries being ignored by the White House I am sure there are reason why YS had not visited of has not been invited to the white house, After the visit of President Obama and the flirting that went on between Yingluck and the President, I am sure Michelle has told Barry "Keep that "-----" out of my home". The problem is that it looks like Obama has the hots for The Lady too. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post me313 Posted May 27, 2013 Popular Post Share Posted May 27, 2013 The ultimate goal is for the US to build barracks and station troops in the SE Asian region in Burma, cheap real estate and a perfect opportunity in this area. Thailand, on the other hand, wants to downgrade it's "cheap" status and move up in the world. For the ex-pats who came h ere to retire on cheap cheap living status, time to consider moving north. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NongKhaiKid Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Myanmar has a lot of opportunities. India building the 4 land highway across it. Oil and gas possibilities off the coast. Pristine untouched coastline and islands. A largish population with a huge workforce (low skilled) at the ready. Politicians wanting foreign investment and willing to build necessary diplomatic ties. In Japan Yingluck was pitching the Burmese deep water port facility so was that for the benefit of Thailand or family interests ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Roadman Posted May 27, 2013 Popular Post Share Posted May 27, 2013 Well presented article Khun Kavi. Unfortunately the people who need to understand it the most your fellow thai's will scoff it off with we are Thai, we are immortal. While heads are in the sand, one's arse is there for all to take advantage off. Burma has done that at will over the centuries and another thai arse ....... is coming right now. Give it ten years and Mynamar if its holds to its current path will be the young tiger and the rightful hub of South east Asia and Thailand will be still pimping itself to its own corruption while the Isaan Khwai bow to the glory of the Shinawatra Amart and their like minded governance best mate Cambodia. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post HeavyDrinker Posted May 27, 2013 Popular Post Share Posted May 27, 2013 I feel that many overseas powers are getting in a lather over Myanmar more than a little prematurely, most having been carried away by the chance for a nice photo opportunity with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. Myanmar's internal struggles are just starting up. The Rohingya problem is the mere tip of the iceberg. Things could get far worse as the country democratises and the well-armed minority militias all join in the struggle for a slice of the pie. Additionally the infrastructure, especially in terms of transport and education, outside of the main population centres is abysmal although they are working on this like rabbits on this one. I could go on and on listing potential negatives, but won't. There is a genuine feeling of hope among the people one meets in Myanmar these days - hugely noticeable from just a few years ago - that things are changing for the better. Cautious optimism has replaced cynical resignation in many sectors; tourism and lower level business investment in particular. The truth for the immediate future (the next 5-10 years) is that Myanmar will 'rise' insofar as they will allow China and Japan (possibly India too) first dibs at their considerable natural and human resources which may paint a picture of economic well being...but the real challenges which will face Myanmar don't lie in that direction. While Myanmar is essentially a blank canvas with vast investor potential at some time in the future, there is still a long way to go. A very long way. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post connda Posted May 27, 2013 Popular Post Share Posted May 27, 2013 I'll believe when I no longer see hundreds of Burmese at Chiang Mai immigration and instead we see Thais flocking to Myanmar's borders to get better paying jobs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GentlemanJim Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 I bet there are some really cool, cheap pristine bits of beach to build a house on in Myanmar, even a nice Island maybe. It is a property developers dream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thai at Heart Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 This is what happens when you try to butter your bread on both sides. I cannot but agree completely with this statement. It is the persistent tinkering by the Thai's in terms of their relationship with the US/Japan/Eu and then China that leaves all sides wondering how much of an ally Thailand really is. I don't know what kind of restrictions Burma is going to have on foreign ownership of businesses or property for example, but Thailand really needs to get its house in order about to which countries it really shows friendship towards. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post ratcatcher Posted May 27, 2013 Popular Post Share Posted May 27, 2013 This is what happens when you try to butter your bread on both sides. I cannot but agree completely with this statement. It is the persistent tinkering by the Thai's in terms of their relationship with the US/Japan/Eu and then China that leaves all sides wondering how much of an ally Thailand really is. I don't know what kind of restrictions Burma is going to have on foreign ownership of businesses or property for example, but Thailand really needs to get its house in order about to which countries it really shows friendship towards. Thai governments believe that the crack between the buttock cheeks was created for comfortable fence sitting. Something which this country does quite well IMHO. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EvilDrSomkid Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Myanmar has a lot of opportunities. India building the 4 land highway across it. Oil and gas possibilities off the coast. Pristine untouched coastline and islands. A largish population with a huge workforce (low skilled) at the ready. Politicians wanting foreign investment and willing to build necessary diplomatic ties. In Japan Yingluck was pitching the Burmese deep water port facility so was that for the benefit of Thailand or family interests ? I think you know the answer to that. Shin clan ALWAYS comes first. It is quite probable that the Shin clan are heavily invested in the Dawei Deep Sea port. I am pretty sure that the US is done with the dilettantism of the current Thai government. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Utley Posted May 27, 2013 Popular Post Share Posted May 27, 2013 (edited) While I believe that the current fervent interest in Myanmar will cool, in the long term Thailand will be forced into bed with China as it has burned it's bridges everywhere else. Thailand will become China's favorite bed partner until, like a Pattaya girlfriend, she has nothing left to offer and is shown the door. Myanmar and Vietnam in the U.S./Japanese camp; Thailand, Cambodia and Laos in the Chinese camp. Which would you choose? The next time NASA offers satellite weather help, perhaps one shouldn't spit in their face! Edited May 27, 2013 by Utley 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chainarong Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 One could say the writing is on the wall for Thailand , however having said that, Burma has a long way to go to provide proper infrastructure and this will take a decade, the US still has sanctions in place, as they are not happy with their (Burma's) handling of the ethnic unrest and Burma have just implemented a two child policy for all Muslims, I don't think Thailand need worry , some of B.O.T's deals, you would have to go along way to beat, I think maybe Military positioning would be the factor in Japan thinking, as it is a immature nation and naive, you possibly will find G men under every bush in Burma shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post NeverSure Posted May 27, 2013 Popular Post Share Posted May 27, 2013 So Thailand can be the HUB of countries being ignored by the White House I am sure there are reason why YS had not visited of has not been invited to the white house, I don't know what your point is. President Obama visited Thailand last November. Is that being "ignored by the White House?" The US aircraft carrier Nimitz will visit Phuket in two days as a show of force to China over threats regarding the South China Sea. Link President Obama of The White House is the Chief Commander of all US military forces. Is that being "ignored by the White House?" "The White House" has busted butt trying to show friendship to Thailand. Thailand seems to prefer China. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzMick Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 One could say the writing is on the wall for Thailand , however having said that, Burma has a long way to go to provide proper infrastructure and this will take a decade, the US still has sanctions in place, as they are not happy with their (Burma's) handling of the ethnic unrest and Burma have just implemented a two child policy for all Muslims, I don't think Thailand need worry , some of B.O.T's deals, you would have to go along way to beat, I think maybe Military positioning would be the factor in Japan thinking, as it is a immature nation and naive, you possibly will find G men under every bush in Burma shortly. A 2 child policy for one ethnic/religious group? That will have the liberals all over singing your praises. Any idea what happens should the policy contravened? Forced abortion, infanticide - even a Sophie's Choice perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Thai at Heart Posted May 27, 2013 Popular Post Share Posted May 27, 2013 This is what happens when you try to butter your bread on both sides. I cannot but agree completely with this statement. It is the persistent tinkering by the Thai's in terms of their relationship with the US/Japan/Eu and then China that leaves all sides wondering how much of an ally Thailand really is. I don't know what kind of restrictions Burma is going to have on foreign ownership of businesses or property for example, but Thailand really needs to get its house in order about to which countries it really shows friendship towards. Thai governments believe that the crack between the buttock cheeks was created for comfortable fence sitting. Something which this country does quite well IMHO. fs.jpg Indeed they have over the years, and have claimed that it has benefitted the country etc etc. However, this isn't quite a true representation. It is presented that by playing one colonial power off against another, nothing was lost and it was all to Thailand's gain, which in reality isn't quite true. In this situation, trying to play with China, US, EU and Japan on a financial level does come with some costs economically, politically and strategically. As for it appearing that they are trying to force Japan's hand in Myanmar about building Dawei, when it appears that Japan wants a port in a different place, suggests to me, that there is a limit to how far you can push anyone for your own benefit. And anyone believing that allying closely with China on economic development, doesn't come at a cost, just has to look at Africa. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post soi41 Posted May 27, 2013 Popular Post Share Posted May 27, 2013 Getting so tired of all the haters here! You are here by choice and of your free will, you are the holder of a passport, so why not just move quietly to the new paradise ? Your new friend Thein Sein will welcome you with open arms. Ironic, that he has become the flavour of the month, after together with his co-generals having raped his country for half a century. We are all looking forward to reports of your life in paradise. Oh, I forgot, there is almost no internetcoverage and a simcard is 6000 baht! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
watcharacters Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 I feel that many overseas powers are getting in a lather over Myanmar more than a little prematurely, most having been carried away by the chance for a nice photo opportunity with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. Myanmar's internal struggles are just starting up. The Rohingya problem is the mere tip of the iceberg. Things could get far worse as the country democratises and the well-armed minority militias all join in the struggle for a slice of the pie. Additionally the infrastructure, especially in terms of transport and education, outside of the main population centres is abysmal although they are working on this like rabbits on this one. I could go on and on listing potential negatives, but won't. There is a genuine feeling of hope among the people one meets in Myanmar these days - hugely noticeable from just a few years ago - that things are changing for the better. Cautious optimism has replaced cynical resignation in many sectors; tourism and lower level business investment in particular. The truth for the immediate future (the next 5-10 years) is that Myanmar will 'rise' insofar as they will allow China and Japan (possibly India too) first dibs at their considerable natural and human resources which may paint a picture of economic well being...but the real challenges which will face Myanmar don't lie in that direction. While Myanmar is essentially a blank canvas with vast investor potential at some time in the future, there is still a long way to go. A very long way. How did you come to this conclusion? "The truth for the immediate future (the next 5-10 years) is that Myanmar will 'rise' insofar as they will allow China and Japan (possibly India too) first dibs at their considerable natural and human resources which may paint a picture of economic well being...but the real challenges which will face Myanmar don't lie in that direction." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post pattayaorganic Posted May 27, 2013 Popular Post Share Posted May 27, 2013 \ A largish population with a huge workforce (low skilled) at the ready. \ How do you know the Myanmar workforce is "low skilled"? Because you see a dearth of Myanmar labourers in Thailand? I used to run a world-class engineering firm in Singapore and my most skilled and dedicated engineers all came from Myanmar. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeavyDrinker Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 I feel that many overseas powers are getting in a lather over Myanmar more than a little prematurely, most having been carried away by the chance for a nice photo opportunity with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. Myanmar's internal struggles are just starting up. The Rohingya problem is the mere tip of the iceberg. Things could get far worse as the country democratises and the well-armed minority militias all join in the struggle for a slice of the pie. Additionally the infrastructure, especially in terms of transport and education, outside of the main population centres is abysmal although they are working on this like rabbits on this one. I could go on and on listing potential negatives, but won't. There is a genuine feeling of hope among the people one meets in Myanmar these days - hugely noticeable from just a few years ago - that things are changing for the better. Cautious optimism has replaced cynical resignation in many sectors; tourism and lower level business investment in particular. The truth for the immediate future (the next 5-10 years) is that Myanmar will 'rise' insofar as they will allow China and Japan (possibly India too) first dibs at their considerable natural and human resources which may paint a picture of economic well being...but the real challenges which will face Myanmar don't lie in that direction. While Myanmar is essentially a blank canvas with vast investor potential at some time in the future, there is still a long way to go. A very long way. How did you come to this conclusion? "The truth for the immediate future (the next 5-10 years) is that Myanmar will 'rise' insofar as they will allow China and Japan (possibly India too) first dibs at their considerable natural and human resources which may paint a picture of economic well being...but the real challenges which will face Myanmar don't lie in that direction." Which part of my conclusion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gemini81 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 The world moves on, while Thailand is held back by its own dictatorship ruling political mafia leaders...The world doesn't need it except for jasmine rice, muay thai and nice poon tang, if we're to be honest about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skipspear Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 So Thailand can be the HUB of countries being ignored by the White House I am sure there are reason why YS had not visited of has not been invited to the white house, It's not about her, it's about the old Thai boys club that always has a hand out for more money. Corruption is in-bred in Thailand, even those with little power try to use it. It's a way of life and everybody knows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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