Thailand Withers As Myanmar Rises: Opinion

[chiangmaikelly]

Yes, I couldn't touch McDonalds stock prices. Buffetts favorite Coca Cola. But, you got to have serious money to plat that game. Of course I'm assuming you will not give me the 50 Billion. If you want to give me 50 Billion I will invest in Mc Donald's But if I have to play on my level Myramar

Just read in the Bangkok Post that foreigners were net sellers of bonds this week. That probably helps to explain the baht. That money is going somewhere.

I wrote, "Tell the truth. I'll give you a million dollars of bonds who do you want Burma or MacDonalds?"

[Publicus]

The credit rating agencies did such a great job during the U.S. subprime swindle and, for the past generation, the western Europeans' debt and financing schemes predicated on the many pyramid schemes of other people's money.

I focus on Thailand because after some extended period of years here, I know a little something about Thais and Thailand. I don't know Burma - haven't ever been there. From where I sit, however, Burma looks pretty attractive, especially after foundations are laid for investment, finance, political stability, social cohesion. There are a hundred possible ways to resolve the ethnic minority problems Burma continues to have. A few smart Western corporate types and diplomats can deal with these and other issues. The Burmese should know it would only benefit them.

I'd hope that developmentally, the Burmese can start from a better point during this decade than Thailand did during the 1990s. I should think it would make them more trustworthy and transparent than Thais are.

In financial terms, the Burmese sitting on all those natural resource reserves are wealthier than Thailand is or ever has been - ever will be.

So let's see if the Burmese are smarter than the Thais are, i.e., whether they willingly will learn from the West.

Thailand during the first decade of the 21st century lost its focus, its unity, its sense of purpose and vision. The Burmese are starting fresh, have much to overcome, but done properly can achieve much more than Thailand ever can.

[ray23]

Yes, I couldn't touch McDonalds stock prices. Buffetts favorite Coca Cola. But, you got to have serious money to plat that game. Of course I'm assuming you will not give me the 50 Billion. If you want to give me 50 Billion I will invest in Mc Donald's But if I have to play on my level Myramar

Just read in the Bangkok Post that foreigners were net sellers of bonds this week. That probably helps to explain the baht. That money is going somewhere.

I wrote, "Tell the truth. I'll give you a million dollars of bonds who do you want Burma or MacDonalds?"

Ya I know. But, your not going to do that. So I'm sticking with Myramar. I'm really not doing a intellectual exercise I'm trying find ways into that market. You guys are to sharp for me to do that with. I appreciate the information I have gotten thus far.

[NeverSure]

Yes, I couldn't touch McDonalds stock prices. Buffetts favorite Coca Cola. But, you got to have serious money to plat that game. Of course I'm assuming you will not give me the 50 Billion. If you want to give me 50 Billion I will invest in Mc Donald's But if I have to play on my level Myramar

Just read in the Bangkok Post that foreigners were net sellers of bonds this week. That probably helps to explain the baht. That money is going somewhere.

I wrote, "Tell the truth. I'll give you a million dollars of bonds who do you want Burma or MacDonalds?"

I'm off topic for showing how Ford and other manufacturers will pull out of markets such as Australia and Canada when costs get too high, to show that they would in Thailand, but you're on topic talking about McDonald's.

Money is flowing out of Thailand. This is going to panic Thailand because they need to sell bonds to finance the ever increasing debt. Because their credit rating sucks, they have to pay a high rate of interest. Lowering rates makes it impossible to sell bonds, and not lowering them holds the value of the baht up hurting exports.

Also the SET and the construction business rely on foreign money.

You don't get it, you won't get it, and you'll have to be beotch slapped by the end result and even then you may not get it.

PS. What do you think of the PE ratios of the SET?

[chiangmaikelly]

Yes, I couldn't touch McDonalds stock prices. Buffetts favorite Coca Cola. But, you got to have serious money to plat that game. Of course I'm assuming you will not give me the 50 Billion. If you want to give me 50 Billion I will invest in Mc Donald's But if I have to play on my level Myramar

Just read in the Bangkok Post that foreigners were net sellers of bonds this week. That probably helps to explain the baht. That money is going somewhere.

I wrote, "Tell the truth. I'll give you a million dollars of bonds who do you want Burma or MacDonalds?"

I'm off topic for showing how Ford and other manufacturers will pull out of markets such as Australia and Canada when costs get too high, to show that they would in Thailand, but you're on topic talking about McDonald's.

Money is flowing out of Thailand. This is going to panic Thailand because they need to sell bonds to finance the ever increasing debt. Because their credit rating sucks, they have to pay a high rate of interest. Lowering rates makes it impossible to sell bonds, and not lowering them holds the value of the baht up hurting exports.

Also the SET and the construction business rely on foreign money.

You don't get it, you won't get it, and you'll have to be beotch slapped by the end result and even then you may not get it.

PS. What do you think of the PE ratios of the SET?

1. Not off topic at all. A burger company has a larger volume of sales in 5 years than the country of Burma and would make a better investment.

2. Thailand has a constant credit rating and the USA and UK both gone down, it is the direction that is important in predicting the future.

3. Money flowing out of Thailand? How much has the baht gone down this week? The Thai baht has risen as much as 6% against the dollar since the beginning of the year and many economists predict further gains.

4, The SET and construction business do not rely of foreign money. Who tells you this stuff?

5. Ford pulling out of Australia and Canada has nothing to do with Thailand. Ford is building in Thailand. I live close to the factory.

Edited June 1, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[NeverSure]

Yes, I couldn't touch McDonalds stock prices. Buffetts favorite Coca Cola. But, you got to have serious money to plat that game. Of course I'm assuming you will not give me the 50 Billion. If you want to give me 50 Billion I will invest in Mc Donald's But if I have to play on my level Myramar

Just read in the Bangkok Post that foreigners were net sellers of bonds this week. That probably helps to explain the baht. That money is going somewhere.

I wrote, "Tell the truth. I'll give you a million dollars of bonds who do you want Burma or MacDonalds?"

I'll take either one over Thailand's SET.

Link

Thailand's trade and services sentiment unfavourable in all sectors

By Digital Media

BANGKOK, June 1 – Thailand’s trade and

services confidence index declined from 55.0 to 52.8 in April compared

to the preceding month, a senior official said today.

"Chawan Svasti-xuto, acting director of the Small- and Medium-Enterprises Promotion Office, said the sentiment indices were lowered from 51.8 to 50.0 in the wholesale sector, from 54.3 to 51.0 in the retail sector and from 57.0 to 56.1 in the service sector.

Confidence indices on economic and business decreased from 71.7 to 62.3 and from 65.2 to 58.8 respectively.

He predicted a worse situation in the next three months when the index may drop from 51.1 to 41.2 in every business sector while the wholesale, retail and service sectors will dip down from 51.8 to 48.3, from 51.5 to 40.1 and from 50.3 to 39.8 respectively.

Confidence indices for the national economy will slide down from 55.5 to 34.8 and for private business from 51.6 to 27.5." (emphasis mine)

From 62.3 to 27.5 in three months.

Get your money out of the SET and out of real estate. Get your money out of Thailand and into your home country.

Edited June 1, 2013 by NeverSure

[NeverSure]

Yes, I couldn't touch McDonalds stock prices. Buffetts favorite Coca Cola. But, you got to have serious money to plat that game. Of course I'm assuming you will not give me the 50 Billion. If you want to give me 50 Billion I will invest in Mc Donald's But if I have to play on my level Myramar

Just read in the Bangkok Post that foreigners were net sellers of bonds this week. That probably helps to explain the baht. That money is going somewhere.

I wrote, "Tell the truth. I'll give you a million dollars of bonds who do you want Burma or MacDonalds?"

I'm off topic for showing how Ford and other manufacturers will pull out of markets such as Australia and Canada when costs get too high, to show that they would in Thailand, but you're on topic talking about McDonald's.

Money is flowing out of Thailand. This is going to panic Thailand because they need to sell bonds to finance the ever increasing debt. Because their credit rating sucks, they have to pay a high rate of interest. Lowering rates makes it impossible to sell bonds, and not lowering them holds the value of the baht up hurting exports.

Also the SET and the construction business rely on foreign money.

You don't get it, you won't get it, and you'll have to be beotch slapped by the end result and even then you may not get it.

PS. What do you think of the PE ratios of the SET?

1. Not off topic at all. A burger company has a larger volume of sales in 5 years than the country of Burma and would make a better investment.

2. Thailand has a constant credit rating and the USA and UK both gone down, it is the direction that is important in predicting the future.

3. Money flowing out of Thailand? How much has the baht gone down this week? The Thai baht has risen as much as 6% against the dollar since the beginning of the year and many economists predict further gains.

4, The SET and construction business do not rely of foreign money. Who tells you this stuff?

5. Ford pulling out of Australia and Canada has nothing to do with Thailand. Ford is building in Thailand. I live close to the factory.

McDonald's doesn't have as much room to grow, and no it isn't relevant to Burma or Thailand or the auto industry.

Thailand has a constant credit rating (so far) of shitty. BBB- No where near Western countries who can sell bonds at about zero interest rates, while Thailand has to pay high interest rates to satisfy investors about taking the risk. Yes, much of this money comes from abroad.

You don't understand what has driven up the value of the baht. Western countries can drive their currencies down to make exports competitive, and Thailand can't because it has to pay high interest rates to sell its bonds. But you don't understand that. Money flowing into Thailand IS WHAT drives up the baht. Every time someone wants to bring money into Thailand, he first has to buy baht with a different currency. This creates demand for baht. If people quit bringing money into Thailand to by the SET or to buy Thai debt, or to invest in business, the baht will crash.

And, you don't think foreign investors buy the SET or invest in construction. Brilliant.

Major auto manufacturers pulling out of Australia and Canada is totally relevant. It shows that they go to places where it is cheap to manufacture, and abandon places where it isn't. Thailand not only isn't cheap especially with the new minimum wage making its wages multiples of what it costs in other SE Asian countries, but Thailand is corrupt and rips the manufacturers off. Thailand also taxes the chit out of new cars as if they were imported, and taxes exports.

Ford is pulling out of Australia and for now is going to make up that difference by increasing production by 200,000 units in the US where it's cheaper. Manufacturers will go to where it's cheapest. Germany, S Korea and Japan are expensive and manufacture like crazy in the US of all places. Link

The West and Japan have (read this week's news even on this forum) just bitch slapped Thailand with words and actions and moved on to Burma.

[PoodMaiDai]

Myanmar has a lot of opportunities. India building the 4 land highway across it. Oil and gas possibilities off the coast. Pristine untouched coastline and islands. A largish population with a huge workforce (low skilled) at the ready. Politicians wanting foreign investment and willing to build necessary diplomatic ties.

Myanmar is going to steal the thunder from Thailand, no doubt about it. So long as they learn from Thailand's mistakes and not repeat them, they will easily move Thailand into the shadows.

[mrtoad]

Thailand is reaping what it has sown. Time for them to get out of the dark ages, otherwise they are going to be the Sickman of ASEAN.

[NeverSure]

Thailand is reaping what it has sown. Time for them to get out of the dark ages, otherwise they are going to be the Sickman of ASEAN.

Right. I don't see Thailand as really be part of ASEAN. Thailand is too protectionist and too set in its ways. Such an agreement means opening borders to trade. I don't see it, which means Thailand gets left if the dust. Thailand is the Hub and can't see how to form a partnership which requires giving and taking.

[mrtoad]

It's a little bit like Detroit

[NeverSure]

I put a lot of time and effort into and analogy between Thailand and Detroit, showing how letting costs including wages and government costs get too high, and thinking they would always be the Hub, and strictly regulating business drove them from 300,000 auto manufacturing jobs to 30,000 jobs in two decades. Of course there is a lot of auto manufacturing in other states now, but the analogy holds.

I put a lot of time into posting links, and showing what could happen to Thailand, given the same attitudes and policies, but it got deleted I think.

Thailand could take a lesson from thinking they are the chosen one and trying to suck too much blood from the host.

Edited June 1, 2013 by NeverSure

[mrtoad]

Agree, I don't understand why the comparison regarding Detroit has disappeared. It was a good comparison. Maybe we can use Briatain as an example next time

[ratcatcher]

Thailand is reaping what it has sown. Time for them to get out of the dark ages, otherwise they are going to be the Sickman of ASEAN.

Right. I don't see Thailand as really be part of ASEAN. Thailand is too protectionist and too set in its ways. Such an agreement means opening borders to trade. I don't see it, which means Thailand gets left if the dust. Thailand is the Hub and can't see how to form a partnership which requires giving and taking.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-31/top-finnish-fund-deserts-thailand-for-vietnam-seeking-growth.html

edit to add

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/WEF-to-lift-Myanmars-profile-30207118.html

Edited June 1, 2013 by ratcatcher

[chiangmaikelly]

A million Burmese have been shipped off to jungle gulags, or rural slave camps, and forced to perform manual labor in the last ten years. There is no free speech, and dissent is not tolerated by the government. In 2007, mass demonstrations were led by crowds of Buddhist monks, but they were put down by security forces who killed, beat and detained hundreds.[16] There were persistent rumors that thousands of monks and others were rounded up and summarily executed and their bodies
dumped in the jungle.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Than_Shwe

I realize this is not in keeping with Thai negative theme but I do think that this thread is a comparison between Burma and Thailand.

Edited June 1, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[chiangmaikelly]

I put a lot of time and effort into and analogy between Thailand and Detroit, showing how letting costs including wages and government costs get too high, and thinking they would always be the Hub, and strictly regulating business drove them from 300,000 auto manufacturing jobs to 30,000 jobs in two decades. Of course there is a lot of auto manufacturing in other states now, but the analogy holds.

I put a lot of time into posting links, and showing what could happen to Thailand, given the same attitudes and policies, but it got deleted I think.

Thailand could take a lesson from thinking they are the chosen one and trying to suck too much blood from the host.

I grew up in Detroit and now live in Rayong and my father was the president of the Society of Automotive Engineers. I think the subject is off topic for this thread though and I would point out that Detroit is a city and Thailand is a country.

[ray23]

The P/E ratios are out sight on the SET now. If you hold good dividend stock no problem with the SET at all. But to buy in now, things are just to high compared to their value. A few hours ago I looked at the baht 30.46 just about where it was in January. That is where it sky rocketed.

I don't see Thailand failing. But to say that foreign money doesn't influence the market here. Is just not realistic. The biggest problem that the BOT was facing was the incoming money, driving the baht higher and higher. To a point where Thai business's lost the their competitive edge.

It was great for imports and terrible for exports

.

The SET fail and that depreciated. I've seen the effect of the money coming And the money going out for years now. They are connected. and flow together.

If prices go down, we may see the SET find new legs again. This was the one thing that was talked about a lot by Thai's. The money coming in had the ear marks of shorts and Thailand had no absolute that it would stay. It goes down and becomes attractive that very same money may come back. Time will tell

There are plenty of Thais that enough money to keep things on the move. But, this isn't about the Nation, it's about money.

Thailand was the hot spot, there will be another and i think it will be Myramar. When hedge funds pull money it doesn't just go into thin air. It goes where they believe they can profit the best.

Can it all reverse of course it can, that's the stock market. I've already said if the SET were to fall low enough I would buy in again. I happen to like Thailand. But, I will look for the best return on my money at a level I can afford. That cuts out McDonald Coca Cola Ect.

Investors come in all shapes and sizes. I can't do what a hedge fund or Soros does. But I can get play at my level and make money I already did and now that I have the farm profitable. I have the time to do the research as I need to.

My experience last time around is it takes a lot of work to pick a company you want to invest in. I don't often post on T.V anymore. I am amazed at the traffic it gets compared to the Udon forum.

Anyway right now my sights are on Myramar. As long a I stay in my limits I won't get hurt.

In my case it;s not if Thailand is better then Myramar, it's where I can make money on my budget 20K baht a month ain't much. But. given a few years some profits and dividends it adds up very quick .

The three things I think could ruin Thailand are Politics and the violence that can be associated with it. A coup, uncle Thaks was the first P./M to finish out a term, maybe we will get second one to finish a term I don't know, would be nice. The third things mis allocation of funds. IE the rice scheme that pays more for the rice then it cam be sold for. That is the easiest one to name. But, it's just the tip of the Ice Berg. To me that's the dangers here.

I donlt know what the dangers are in Myramar yet. But, I will take the time to find out, befoer I invest anythign

[SeaVisionBurma]

Just a small addition - the correct spelling is "Myanmar"

[SeaVisionBurma]

A million Burmese have been shipped off to jungle gulags, or rural slave camps, and forced to perform manual labor in the last ten years. There is no free speech, and dissent is not tolerated by the government. In 2007, mass demonstrations were led by crowds of Buddhist monks, but they were put down by security forces who killed, beat and detained hundreds.[16] There were persistent rumors that thousands of monks and others were rounded up and summarily executed and their bodies

dumped in the jungle.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Than_Shwe

I realize this is not in keeping with Thai negative theme but I do think that this thread is a comparison between Burma and Thailand.

A lot of changes have taken place since the above information was added to Than Shwe's wikipedia page.

Myanmar is not perfect, but it has come a long way since then.

I would contend that this info is well out of date and you are drawing a long bow posting this.

[Thai at Heart]

The P/E ratios are out sight on the SET now. If you hold good dividend stock no problem with the SET at all. But to buy in now, things are just to high compared to their value. A few hours ago I looked at the baht 30.46 just about where it was in January. That is where it sky rocketed.

I don't see Thailand failing. But to say that foreign money doesn't influence the market here. Is just not realistic. The biggest problem that the BOT was facing was the incoming money, driving the baht higher and higher. To a point where Thai business's lost the their competitive edge.

It was great for imports and terrible for exports

.

The SET fail and that depreciated. I've seen the effect of the money coming And the money going out for years now. They are connected. and flow together.

If prices go down, we may see the SET find new legs again. This was the one thing that was talked about a lot by Thai's. The money coming in had the ear marks of shorts and Thailand had no absolute that it would stay. It goes down and becomes attractive that very same money may come back. Time will tell

There are plenty of Thais that enough money to keep things on the move. But, this isn't about the Nation, it's about money.

Thailand was the hot spot, there will be another and i think it will be Myramar. When hedge funds pull money it doesn't just go into thin air. It goes where they believe they can profit the best.

Can it all reverse of course it can, that's the stock market. I've already said if the SET were to fall low enough I would buy in again. I happen to like Thailand. But, I will look for the best return on my money at a level I can afford. That cuts out McDonald Coca Cola Ect.

Investors come in all shapes and sizes. I can't do what a hedge fund or Soros does. But I can get play at my level and make money I already did and now that I have the farm profitable. I have the time to do the research as I need to.

My experience last time around is it takes a lot of work to pick a company you want to invest in. I don't often post on T.V anymore. I am amazed at the traffic it gets compared to the Udon forum.

Anyway right now my sights are on Myramar. As long a I stay in my limits I won't get hurt.

In my case it;s not if Thailand is better then Myramar, it's where I can make money on my budget 20K baht a month ain't much. But. given a few years some profits and dividends it adds up very quick .

The three things I think could ruin Thailand are Politics and the violence that can be associated with it. A coup, uncle Thaks was the first P./M to finish out a term, maybe we will get second one to finish a term I don't know, would be nice. The third things mis allocation of funds. IE the rice scheme that pays more for the rice then it cam be sold for. That is the easiest one to name. But, it's just the tip of the Ice Berg. To me that's the dangers here.

I donlt know what the dangers are in Myramar yet. But, I will take the time to find out, befoer I invest anythign

Well it's not rocket science. Thailand has ridden all the way back from the 97 mess, and growth from here is going to be harder to find.

Burma is virgin territory coming from a very low base. Realistically, the only way is up for them. It's a risky shot, but Thailand will fight to get it's 4 to 6% growth, whereas, just selling widgets in Burma probably grows the economy significantly.

I think Thailand needs to liberalise to encourage more FDI, but that's not likely to happen.

[chiangmaikelly]

A million Burmese have been shipped off to jungle gulags, or rural slave camps, and forced to perform manual labor in the last ten years. There is no free speech, and dissent is not tolerated by the government. In 2007, mass demonstrations were led by crowds of Buddhist monks, but they were put down by security forces who killed, beat and detained hundreds.[16] There were persistent rumors that thousands of monks and others were rounded up and summarily executed and their bodies

dumped in the jungle.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Than_Shwe

I realize this is not in keeping with Thai negative theme but I do think that this thread is a comparison between Burma and Thailand.

A lot of changes have taken place since the above information was added to Than Shwe's wikipedia page.

Myanmar is not perfect, but it has come a long way since then.

I would contend that this info is well out of date and you are drawing a long bow posting this.

I was in Thailand when the Monks protest took place in 2007. The United States Department of the Treasury announced sanctions against 14 senior officials of Myanmar. Is 5 years ago current enough? European Union, and Canada imposed a number of sanctions on the Junta, including a freeze on bank accounts and restrictions on imports of gems and timber. What.is the feeling about 5 years ago; is it relevant or is 5 years too old to write about? 5 years seems like the blink of an eye to me but maybe I'm wrong. What do you think?

Edited June 1, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[SeaVisionBurma]

I stand by my post. Read the OP again.

This thread has been taken well off topic already into posts about Detroit, China, McDonalds, and so on.

Further off topic posts will be removed. Stay on the topic in the OP. Several members have turned this into a discussion about Thailand only.

I should add I was also in Yangon when the monks started their protests in September of 2007. I was lucky enough (call it foresight, whatever) to leave in the morning just before the military cracked down.

The country has changed, and I believe it to be for the better. Bringing Than Shwe's wikipedia page into this discussion is not in line with the OP.

[bigbamboo]

Just a small addition - the correct spelling is "Myanmar"

We have a Myanmarese cat.

She gets confused now too.

[ray23]

Just a small addition - the correct spelling is "Myanmar"

We have a Myanmarese cat.

She gets confused now too.

Per the Bangkok Post there is one we missed a Finnish fund pulled it's money out of Thailand to go into Vietnam.

I think I'm still on topic since we are talking about changes in Thailand as a part of this.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/352936/big-finnish-fund-shifts-from-thailand-to-vietnam.

This speaks of Myanmar joining with other countries in anti corruption pack. In mi IMHO that really isn't going to mean much. When you look at these things you have to look at both sides of the coin.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/wef-online/352960/collective-action-can-help-stamp-out-corruption

Edited June 2, 2013 by ray23