Thailand Withers As Myanmar Rises: Opinion

[chiangmaikelly]

In 2010, industry contributes 45.6 percent to the Thailands GDP and employs 19.7 percent of the total workforce.

One of its most important industries is the automobile, which grew by 64 percent in 2010.

Services contributes 44 percent to Thailand's GDP and employs 37.9 percent of the total workforce in 2010.

Tourism in Thailand contributes a larger share of GDP than any other country in Asia. Thailand's capital city, Bangkok attracted large number of visitors every year. In 2011, Bangkok is named by influential US travel magazine Travel + Leisure as the world's best city. According to Thailand's Department of Tourism, the country welcomed 10.35 million visitors, and collected a total of US$19.76 billion in international tourism receipts.

http://www.economywatch.com/world_economy/thailand/industry-sector-industries.html

Burma? 1. Burma (Myanmar) is the largest producer of methamphetamines in the world.

2. The Union of Myanmar's rulers depend on sales of precious stones such as sapphires, pearls and jade to fund their regime. Rubies are the biggest earner; 90% of the world's rubies come from the country.

3. Fewer than 750,000 tourists enter the country annually.

4. GDP is about 1/10th of Thailands.

Edited May 29, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[NeverSure]

To Kelly: what does the current level of car ownership in Myanmar have to do with willingness for companies automotive or other to invest in Burma?

What does Thailand position as the 10th largest car manufacturer have to do with Myanmar's attractiveness as an investment destination? Particularly as I pointed out in my post, import duties make them prohibitively expensive to Burmese people. Logically, thus is you want to sell cars to Burmese people some companies will logically choose to open plants there, especially if there is a chance to ship from Burma's coastline.

To the Chinese alone this would be extremely attractive to export to the west.

1. Henry Ford figured it out first. Pay your workers enough to buy a car. He was the first one to do this. Thailand is also doing this. 2. Making a car is much more than a Ford auto plant in Thailand. It is the hundreds of smaller plants that supply Ford the materials to assemble a vehicle. Ford does not import screws and bolts from Michigan to Thailand; it buys them in Thailand made by Thai workers in small Thai factories. 3. Ford's history in Thailand dates back to 1913. The tanks in the Franco/Thai war were even powered by Ford motors; and Ford began construction in Thailand in 1961.

It takes much more than one auto plant to build a car and Burma is many years away from the ability to start an auto industry because the Burmese are many years away from being a large market for new cars like Thailand or China is.

To repeat and answer your question; Thailand's position in the world auto manufacturing market is partly because there is a large domestic market for vehicles.

After Thailand won the Vietnam war it launched it on a path to industrialization that it will take Burma 40 years to catch up to if they are very lucky and can find a country or war to fund their effort.

If the West and Japan decide to desert Thailand for any of various reasons, and invest in Burma, Burma will boom. Thailand actually just rose from the ashes since 1997, and now it's on shaky ground again.

The allies went into Japan and Germany and invested and helped after WWII when they were devastated, and ten years later German, and 15 years later Japanese small cars were taking the West by storm.

Kelly, you may underestimate the value of natural resources. Thailand has had rice. Burma has vast oil and natural gas reserves. Can you see the difference between a 3rd world country with rice, and one with oil?

"Why Western Oil Companies Love Myanmar's Moe Myint" Link Part of the reason the West and Japan want into Burma is for strategic reasons, and part is its natural resources. They sure aren't going to let China beat them to it if it can be avoided.

Think of backward Middle East countries which are wealthy only because of oil. This is wealth. Burma really is wealthy while Thailand is broke. Burma just needs some bigger dogs to step up and develop what they have, and the West is going to do it. It's obvious they are going to do it.

Now, figure that Western governments and Japan are in a hurry to cut China out, and add to that the clear fact that oil companies want to tap those vast reserves, and you have a recipe for an economic explosion.

All it takes is money, defense and technology and it's rolling in.

Wake up!!

Edited May 29, 2013 by NeverSure

[chiangmaikelly]

To Kelly: what does the current level of car ownership in Myanmar have to do with willingness for companies automotive or other to invest in Burma?

What does Thailand position as the 10th largest car manufacturer have to do with Myanmar's attractiveness as an investment destination? Particularly as I pointed out in my post, import duties make them prohibitively expensive to Burmese people. Logically, thus is you want to sell cars to Burmese people some companies will logically choose to open plants there, especially if there is a chance to ship from Burma's coastline.

To the Chinese alone this would be extremely attractive to export to the west.

1. Henry Ford figured it out first. Pay your workers enough to buy a car. He was the first one to do this. Thailand is also doing this. 2. Making a car is much more than a Ford auto plant in Thailand. It is the hundreds of smaller plants that supply Ford the materials to assemble a vehicle. Ford does not import screws and bolts from Michigan to Thailand; it buys them in Thailand made by Thai workers in small Thai factories. 3. Ford's history in Thailand dates back to 1913. The tanks in the Franco/Thai war were even powered by Ford motors; and Ford began construction in Thailand in 1961.

It takes much more than one auto plant to build a car and Burma is many years away from the ability to start an auto industry because the Burmese are many years away from being a large market for new cars like Thailand or China is.

To repeat and answer your question; Thailand's position in the world auto manufacturing market is partly because there is a large domestic market for vehicles.

After Thailand won the Vietnam war it launched it on a path to industrialization that it will take Burma 40 years to catch up to if they are very lucky and can find a country or war to fund their effort.

If the West and Japan decide to desert Thailand for any of various reasons, and invest in Burma, Burma will boom. Thailand actually just rose from the ashes since 1997, and now it's on shaky ground again.

The allies went into Japan and Germany and invested and helped after WWII when they were devastated, and ten years later German, and 15 years later Japanese small cars were taking the West by storm.

Kelly, you may underestimate the value of natural resources. Thailand has had rice. Burma has vast oil and natural gas reserves. Can you see the difference between a 3rd world country with rice, and one with oil?

"Why Western Oil Companies Love Myanmar's Moe Myint" Link Part of the reason the West and Japan want into Burma is for strategic reasons, and part is its natural resources. They sure aren't going to let China beat them to it if it can be avoided.

Think of backward Middle East countries which are wealthy only because of oil. This is wealth. Burma really is wealthy while Thailand is broke. Burma just needs some bigger dogs to step up and develop what they have, and the West is going to do it. It's obvious they are going to do it.

Now, figure that Western governments and Japan are in a hurry to cut China out, and add to that the clear fact that oil companies want to tap those vast reserves, and you have a recipe for an economic explosion.

All it takes is money, defense and technology and it's rolling in.

Wake up!!

Ya blue sky for Burma. All you propose is if. Tourism 750,000 to 10 million. GDP 350 billion US Dollars to 50 billion US Dollars. A little reality please.

[NeverSure]

In 2010, industry contributes 45.6 percent to the Thailands GDP and employs 19.7 percent of the total workforce.

One of its most important industries is the automobile, which grew by 64 percent in 2010.

Services contributes 44 percent to Thailand's GDP and employs 37.9 percent of the total workforce in 2010.

Tourism in Thailand contributes a larger share of GDP than any other country in Asia. Thailand's capital city, Bangkok attracted large number of visitors every year. In 2011, Bangkok is named by influential US travel magazine Travel + Leisure as the world's best city. According to Thailand's Department of Tourism, the country welcomed 10.35 million visitors, and collected a total of US$19.76 billion in international tourism receipts.

http://www.economywatch.com/world_economy/thailand/industry-sector-industries.html

Burma? 1. Burma (Myanmar) is the largest producer of methamphetamines in the world.

2. The Union of Myanmar's rulers depend on sales of precious stones such as sapphires, pearls and jade to fund their regime. Rubies are the biggest earner; 90% of the world's rubies come from the country.

3. Fewer than 750,000 tourists enter the country annually.

4. GDP is about 1/10th of Thailands.

Kelly, as I just posted, Burma has vast oil wealth and Thailand has some dodgy rice.

Virtually everything you posted is about "other people's money" whether it be manufacturing by and for others, or tourist money, or anything significant.

Burma has vast oil wealth of its own. It doesn't need Ford or Toyota or a rice harvest or tourists. Burma is Saudi Arabia. Thailand is, well, Thailand.

But Burma's natural resources will pull in the investment and Burma will be the Saudi Arabia of SE Asia while Thailand hopes the "other people" hang around and spend money. Burma is rising and Thailand is self-destructing.

Kelly, think natural resources. Oil and gas. Vast forests. Minerals. This is something a lot of people fail to consider when they evaluate a country's future.

Always consider someone's assets before you pronounce his net worth. It doesn't matter if he has no income if he has a billion dollars worth of oil. He can then get the income when he's ready. If you had 10 million dollars worth of good stock that paid no dividends, You'd have no income but be wealthy.

Burma is incredibly wealthy. Thailand has dodgy rice. Everything else good in Thailand belongs to someone else, or is supported by someone else. Everything, and Thailand mismanages it to the max.

Edited May 29, 2013 by NeverSure

[NeverSure]

1. Henry Ford figured it out first. Pay your workers enough to buy a car. He was the first one to do this. Thailand is also doing this. 2. Making a car is much more than a Ford auto plant in Thailand. It is the hundreds of smaller plants that supply Ford the materials to assemble a vehicle. Ford does not import screws and bolts from Michigan to Thailand; it buys them in Thailand made by Thai workers in small Thai factories. 3. Ford's history in Thailand dates back to 1913. The tanks in the Franco/Thai war were even powered by Ford motors; and Ford began construction in Thailand in 1961.

It takes much more than one auto plant to build a car and Burma is many years away from the ability to start an auto industry because the Burmese are many years away from being a large market for new cars like Thailand or China is.

To repeat and answer your question; Thailand's position in the world auto manufacturing market is partly because there is a large domestic market for vehicles.

After Thailand won the Vietnam war it launched it on a path to industrialization that it will take Burma 40 years to catch up to if they are very lucky and can find a country or war to fund their effort.

If the West and Japan decide to desert Thailand for any of various reasons, and invest in Burma, Burma will boom. Thailand actually just rose from the ashes since 1997, and now it's on shaky ground again.

The allies went into Japan and Germany and invested and helped after WWII when they were devastated, and ten years later German, and 15 years later Japanese small cars were taking the West by storm.

Kelly, you may underestimate the value of natural resources. Thailand has had rice. Burma has vast oil and natural gas reserves. Can you see the difference between a 3rd world country with rice, and one with oil?

"Why Western Oil Companies Love Myanmar's Moe Myint" Link Part of the reason the West and Japan want into Burma is for strategic reasons, and part is its natural resources. They sure aren't going to let China beat them to it if it can be avoided.

Think of backward Middle East countries which are wealthy only because of oil. This is wealth. Burma really is wealthy while Thailand is broke. Burma just needs some bigger dogs to step up and develop what they have, and the West is going to do it. It's obvious they are going to do it.

Now, figure that Western governments and Japan are in a hurry to cut China out, and add to that the clear fact that oil companies want to tap those vast reserves, and you have a recipe for an economic explosion.

All it takes is money, defense and technology and it's rolling in.

Wake up!!

Ya blue sky for Burma. All you propose is if. Tourism 750,000 to 10 million. GDP 350 billion US Dollars to 50 billion US Dollars. A little reality please.

No Kelly. Burma HAS the vast oil and gas reserves and IS wealthy. Thailand has "tourism" and red lights. Burma IS wealthy beyond imagination. Thailand wishes.

[chiangmaikelly]

1. Henry Ford figured it out first. Pay your workers enough to buy a car. He was the first one to do this. Thailand is also doing this. 2. Making a car is much more than a Ford auto plant in Thailand. It is the hundreds of smaller plants that supply Ford the materials to assemble a vehicle. Ford does not import screws and bolts from Michigan to Thailand; it buys them in Thailand made by Thai workers in small Thai factories. 3. Ford's history in Thailand dates back to 1913. The tanks in the Franco/Thai war were even powered by Ford motors; and Ford began construction in Thailand in 1961.

It takes much more than one auto plant to build a car and Burma is many years away from the ability to start an auto industry because the Burmese are many years away from being a large market for new cars like Thailand or China is.

To repeat and answer your question; Thailand's position in the world auto manufacturing market is partly because there is a large domestic market for vehicles.

After Thailand won the Vietnam war it launched it on a path to industrialization that it will take Burma 40 years to catch up to if they are very lucky and can find a country or war to fund their effort.

If the West and Japan decide to desert Thailand for any of various reasons, and invest in Burma, Burma will boom. Thailand actually just rose from the ashes since 1997, and now it's on shaky ground again.

The allies went into Japan and Germany and invested and helped after WWII when they were devastated, and ten years later German, and 15 years later Japanese small cars were taking the West by storm.

Kelly, you may underestimate the value of natural resources. Thailand has had rice. Burma has vast oil and natural gas reserves. Can you see the difference between a 3rd world country with rice, and one with oil?

"Why Western Oil Companies Love Myanmar's Moe Myint" Link Part of the reason the West and Japan want into Burma is for strategic reasons, and part is its natural resources. They sure aren't going to let China beat them to it if it can be avoided.

Think of backward Middle East countries which are wealthy only because of oil. This is wealth. Burma really is wealthy while Thailand is broke. Burma just needs some bigger dogs to step up and develop what they have, and the West is going to do it. It's obvious they are going to do it.

Now, figure that Western governments and Japan are in a hurry to cut China out, and add to that the clear fact that oil companies want to tap those vast reserves, and you have a recipe for an economic explosion.

All it takes is money, defense and technology and it's rolling in.

Wake up!!

Ya blue sky for Burma. All you propose is if. Tourism 750,000 to 10 million. GDP 350 billion US Dollars to 50 billion US Dollars. A little reality please.

No Kelly. Burma HAS the vast oil and gas reserves and IS wealthy. Thailand has "tourism" and red lights. Burma IS wealthy beyond imagination. Thailand wishes.

Burma has always had vast oil and gas reserves. Nothing new. Burma is a very poor country. Burma is wealthy in your imagination. Ask anyone who has been to Burma. I'm not making up the tourist and GDP numbers.

[NeverSure]

1. Henry Ford figured it out first. Pay your workers enough to buy a car. He was the first one to do this. Thailand is also doing this. 2. Making a car is much more than a Ford auto plant in Thailand. It is the hundreds of smaller plants that supply Ford the materials to assemble a vehicle. Ford does not import screws and bolts from Michigan to Thailand; it buys them in Thailand made by Thai workers in small Thai factories. 3. Ford's history in Thailand dates back to 1913. The tanks in the Franco/Thai war were even powered by Ford motors; and Ford began construction in Thailand in 1961.

It takes much more than one auto plant to build a car and Burma is many years away from the ability to start an auto industry because the Burmese are many years away from being a large market for new cars like Thailand or China is.

To repeat and answer your question; Thailand's position in the world auto manufacturing market is partly because there is a large domestic market for vehicles.

After Thailand won the Vietnam war it launched it on a path to industrialization that it will take Burma 40 years to catch up to if they are very lucky and can find a country or war to fund their effort.

If the West and Japan decide to desert Thailand for any of various reasons, and invest in Burma, Burma will boom. Thailand actually just rose from the ashes since 1997, and now it's on shaky ground again.

The allies went into Japan and Germany and invested and helped after WWII when they were devastated, and ten years later German, and 15 years later Japanese small cars were taking the West by storm.

Kelly, you may underestimate the value of natural resources. Thailand has had rice. Burma has vast oil and natural gas reserves. Can you see the difference between a 3rd world country with rice, and one with oil?

"Why Western Oil Companies Love Myanmar's Moe Myint" Link Part of the reason the West and Japan want into Burma is for strategic reasons, and part is its natural resources. They sure aren't going to let China beat them to it if it can be avoided.

Think of backward Middle East countries which are wealthy only because of oil. This is wealth. Burma really is wealthy while Thailand is broke. Burma just needs some bigger dogs to step up and develop what they have, and the West is going to do it. It's obvious they are going to do it.

Now, figure that Western governments and Japan are in a hurry to cut China out, and add to that the clear fact that oil companies want to tap those vast reserves, and you have a recipe for an economic explosion.

All it takes is money, defense and technology and it's rolling in.

Wake up!!

Ya blue sky for Burma. All you propose is if. Tourism 750,000 to 10 million. GDP 350 billion US Dollars to 50 billion US Dollars. A little reality please.

No Kelly. Burma HAS the vast oil and gas reserves and IS wealthy. Thailand has "tourism" and red lights. Burma IS wealthy beyond imagination. Thailand wishes.

Burma has always had vast oil and gas reserves. Nothing new. Burma is a very poor country. Burma is wealthy in your imagination. Ask anyone who has been to Burma. I'm not making up the tourist and GDP numbers.

Kelly, only one more time. If you owned all of the natural resources that Burma owns, you'd be the wealthiest man in the world. Whether or when you chose to develop them would be up to you, but you'd still own them.

Burma has had a major political shift and is inviting the West in to develop it's resources. It's going to get a huge new deep sea seaport and its oil is going to get developed. It has massive shoreline on the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea across from India. It's going to get the seaport because it's needed to ship oil, and because the West wants another strategic location.

Thailand's GDP is mostly money from others. It isn't Thailand's money. Thailand has rice. Burma is Saudi Arabia in the making. The money will flow in there and you won't recognize Burma in ten years. You may not recognize Thailand either if it turns into a bunch of ghost cities.

Thailand is the hub of mismanagement and the Thai way is always right. Burma is the hub of inviting the West in to show them how to do it while investing the money.

That's it Kelly. I'm finished. Stay under the Thai ether, but I hope you don't have a lot of money invested in Thailand. Don't look back and tell me how Thailand has done, look forward and tell me its future. It can't even manage 3rd world rice production.

The title of the thread is: "Burma rises while Thailand withers." They have it right. Not will rise, but rises now.

Edited May 29, 2013 by NeverSure

[Thai at Heart]

To Thai at Heart; I didn't think we were supposed to use the Bangkok Post but I agree Thailand does have a labor shortage. That means there are more jobs than people working or no unemployment. That is because Thailand is at full employment and the economy is smoking as the currency and condo market and anything else you care to quote except for the rice thing which is being beat to death in another thread.

That was copied from a blog. But anyway. I have never said that Thailand isn't doing well economically. The issue is when and how quickly Burma will develop. So, thanks for diverting the issue. I don't agree that Thailand is fading, it is just that Burma is very very much on the cusp of a very very big boom in economic activity. If the reported oil and gas reserves are exploited, that alone will very quickly bring a huge boost in prosperity to Burma. Add in their significant population and available workforce, geographic access to the Indian ocean, proposed ports, pipelines and train developments, and I see know reason why Burma shouldn't be pretty quickly be looking at 10%+ gdp growth very quickly. Long way to go to catch up with Thailand, but that isn't the point.

What strategic industries is Thailand going to enter next to give it the next economic push, and how many investors will come here, and how many will prefer to go to Burma and neighbouring countries? If Thailand doesn't see the development of Myanmar as a strategic threat to its future economic development, that really would be to bury one's head in the sand. Sitting atop the pile right now,. feeling smug really doesn't help at all.

[ratcatcher]

1. Henry Ford figured it out first. Pay your workers enough to buy a car. He was the first one to do this. Thailand is also doing this. 2. Making a car is much more than a Ford auto plant in Thailand. It is the hundreds of smaller plants that supply Ford the materials to assemble a vehicle. Ford does not import screws and bolts from Michigan to Thailand; it buys them in Thailand made by Thai workers in small Thai factories. 3. Ford's history in Thailand dates back to 1913. The tanks in the Franco/Thai war were even powered by Ford motors; and Ford began construction in Thailand in 1961.

It takes much more than one auto plant to build a car and Burma is many years away from the ability to start an auto industry because the Burmese are many years away from being a large market for new cars like Thailand or China is.

To repeat and answer your question; Thailand's position in the world auto manufacturing market is partly because there is a large domestic market for vehicles.

After Thailand won the Vietnam war it launched it on a path to industrialization that it will take Burma 40 years to catch up to if they are very lucky and can find a country or war to fund their effort.

If the West and Japan decide to desert Thailand for any of various reasons, and invest in Burma, Burma will boom. Thailand actually just rose from the ashes since 1997, and now it's on shaky ground again.

The allies went into Japan and Germany and invested and helped after WWII when they were devastated, and ten years later German, and 15 years later Japanese small cars were taking the West by storm.

Kelly, you may underestimate the value of natural resources. Thailand has had rice. Burma has vast oil and natural gas reserves. Can you see the difference between a 3rd world country with rice, and one with oil?

"Why Western Oil Companies Love Myanmar's Moe Myint" Link Part of the reason the West and Japan want into Burma is for strategic reasons, and part is its natural resources. They sure aren't going to let China beat them to it if it can be avoided.

Think of backward Middle East countries which are wealthy only because of oil. This is wealth. Burma really is wealthy while Thailand is broke. Burma just needs some bigger dogs to step up and develop what they have, and the West is going to do it. It's obvious they are going to do it.

Now, figure that Western governments and Japan are in a hurry to cut China out, and add to that the clear fact that oil companies want to tap those vast reserves, and you have a recipe for an economic explosion.

All it takes is money, defense and technology and it's rolling in.

Wake up!!

Ya blue sky for Burma. All you propose is if. Tourism 750,000 to 10 million. GDP 350 billion US Dollars to 50 billion US Dollars. A little reality please.

No Kelly. Burma HAS the vast oil and gas reserves and IS wealthy. Thailand has "tourism" and red lights. Burma IS wealthy beyond imagination. Thailand wishes.

Burma has always had vast oil and gas reserves. Nothing new. Burma is a very poor country. Burma is wealthy in your imagination. Ask anyone who has been to Burma. I'm not making up the tourist and GDP numbers.

Arabia, Norway & Nigeria for example were poor before the arrival of the British and American oil companies.

Prior to 1923 Arabia was a poor country with warring desert tribes. The oil industry turned it into one of the richest countries in the world.

This same mechanism will work for Burma. Thailand doesn't have the oil and gas wealth that Burma has.

NeverSure is right about the rise and fall of neighbors. Give Burma 10 years and check back.

[scorecard]

Well here's another angle - The Thai government seems to believe that Burma will need a lot of help / advice from Thailand to be able to develop.

In reality:

- Burma has many smart and well educated people and Burmese universities are still churning out good engineers and more, and 90% (or more) of them speak good to very advanced English, many speak a Chinese language, etc.

- Why would countries like the US, UK, many countries from Europe, Japan, China and many more NOT DIRECTLY approach / negotiate - sign agreements with / work with Burma ?

- Going through Thai business people / the Thai government is just not needed in most cases and many investing countries would be strongly & deliberately avoiding working through Thais and the Thai govt.

[EyesWideOpen]

As we learned earlier this year during a brief Burmese pipeline shutdown, Burma has Thailand by the nuts regarding natural gas. So if Burma wanted to hasten the demise of Thailand, they need only to shut off the pipeline to Thailand. Thus proving that in fact oil and gas is better than rotting rice.....

Regarding Thai business advice, I seem to recall in earlier news that Burma was seeking advice from Singapore, in the hopes of avoiding the bizarre corruption that plagues and cripples Thailand.

Edited May 29, 2013 by EyesWideOpen

[Naam]

As we learned earlier this year during a brief Burmese pipeline shutdown, Burma has Thailand by the nuts regarding natural gas. So if Burma wanted to hasten the demise of Thailand, they need only to shut off the pipeline to Thailand. Thus proving that in fact oil and gas is better than rotting rice.....

right you are! the Burmese have only the demise of Thailand in mind. then they can keep their oil and gas and live happily ever after

[chiangmaikelly]

Well here's another angle - The Thai government seems to believe that Burma will need a lot of help / advice from Thailand to be able to develop.

In reality:

- Burma has many smart and well educated people and Burmese universities are still churning out good engineers and more, and 90% (or more) of them speak good to very advanced English, many speak a Chinese language, etc.

- Why would countries like the US, UK, many countries from Europe, Japan, China and many more NOT DIRECTLY approach / negotiate - sign agreements with / work with Burma ?

- Going through Thai business people / the Thai government is just not needed in most cases and many investing countries would be strongly & deliberately avoiding working through Thais and the Thai govt.

Despite the genuine optimism generated by 18 months of rapid political reform, the generals retain control. The latest budget, hailed as a breakthrough, still allocates three times as much funding to the military as to education.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/higher-education-network/blog/2013/feb/13/international-partnerships

Edited May 29, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[Thai at Heart]

Well here's another angle - The Thai government seems to believe that Burma will need a lot of help / advice from Thailand to be able to develop.

In reality:

- Burma has many smart and well educated people and Burmese universities are still churning out good engineers and more, and 90% (or more) of them speak good to very advanced English, many speak a Chinese language, etc.

- Why would countries like the US, UK, many countries from Europe, Japan, China and many more NOT DIRECTLY approach / negotiate - sign agreements with / work with Burma ?

- Going through Thai business people / the Thai government is just not needed in most cases and many investing countries would be strongly & deliberately avoiding working through Thais and the Thai govt.

This is what I see with the whole discussion about Daiwei. Ital Thai are planning to build it and Yingluck is desperately running around trying to get the Japanese to fund it. But, only a couple of days ago

http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/35549

RANGOON — Japan will lend Burma US$504 million and will cancel $1.74 billion of Burmese debt as part of a series of weekend deals that included a pledge to push development of a proposed port and commercial zone at Thilawa, a half-hour drive from downtown Rangoon, Burma’s commercial capital.

Making the first visit by a Japanese prime minister since 1977, Shinzo Abe arrived on Friday and spent three days in Burma. He led a 40-strong business delegation that included heads of some of Japan’s biggest companies—another signal that Asia’s second-biggest economy wants a lead role in Burma’s fast-opening economy.

So yes, this clearly shows that Thailand trying to get into the middle of discussions and broker deals which benefit Thai business being conducted in Myanmar seems to have hit a problem. The Japanese at least would like to deal directly.

http://daweiprojectwatch.blogspot.com/

We dare not invest there because of the costs. We would have to pay Thai salary rates," he said.

"The project won't benefit Myanmar much, but mainly Thailand."

So it seems that with so many major countries courting Burma, maybe they don't need Thailand quite as much as Thailand thinks.

[EyesWideOpen]

As we learned earlier this year during a brief Burmese pipeline shutdown, Burma has Thailand by the nuts regarding natural gas. So if Burma wanted to hasten the demise of Thailand, they need only to shut off the pipeline to Thailand. Thus proving that in fact oil and gas is better than rotting rice.....

right you are! the Burmese have only the demise of Thailand in mind. then they can keep their oil and gas and live happily ever after

Given the long history of war between Burma and Thailand, one side hastening the demise of the other would not be a unreasonable conclusion. But I spoke tongue in cheek. Regarding Burma's oil and gas, I am going to make a wild guess and say that China would happily buy all of it. So your fear of Burma being stuck with the oil and gas they could not sell to Thailand is not warranted... :-)

[chiangmaikelly]

As we learned earlier this year during a brief Burmese pipeline shutdown, Burma has Thailand by the nuts regarding natural gas. So if Burma wanted to hasten the demise of Thailand, they need only to shut off the pipeline to Thailand. Thus proving that in fact oil and gas is better than rotting rice.....

right you are! the Burmese have only the demise of Thailand in mind. then they can keep their oil and gas and live happily ever after

Given the long history of war between Burma and Thailand, one side hastening the demise of the other would not be a unreasonable conclusion. But I spoke tongue in cheek. Regarding Burma's oil and gas, I am going to make a wild guess and say that China would happily buy all of it. So your fear of Burma being stuck with the oil and gas they could not sell to Thailand is not warranted... :-)

The Dawei project, if it goes ahead, will link a huge SEZ on Burma’s coast with Thailand’s capital Bangkok.

http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/35549

[Thai at Heart]

As we learned earlier this year during a brief Burmese pipeline shutdown, Burma has Thailand by the nuts regarding natural gas. So if Burma wanted to hasten the demise of Thailand, they need only to shut off the pipeline to Thailand. Thus proving that in fact oil and gas is better than rotting rice.....

right you are! the Burmese have only the demise of Thailand in mind. then they can keep their oil and gas and live happily ever after

Given the long history of war between Burma and Thailand, one side hastening the demise of the other would not be a unreasonable conclusion. But I spoke tongue in cheek. Regarding Burma's oil and gas, I am going to make a wild guess and say that China would happily buy all of it. So your fear of Burma being stuck with the oil and gas they could not sell to Thailand is not warranted... :-)

The Dawei project, if it goes ahead, will link a huge SEZ on Burma’s coast with Thailand’s capital Bangkok.

http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/35549

Reading about the planned funding from Japan, it looks as though it has hit a bit of a HUGE snag.

[NeverSure]

Given the long history of war between Burma and Thailand, one side hastening the demise of the other would not be a unreasonable conclusion. But I spoke tongue in cheek. Regarding Burma's oil and gas, I am going to make a wild guess and say that China would happily buy all of it. So your fear of Burma being stuck with the oil and gas they could not sell to Thailand is not warranted... :-)

The Dawei project, if it goes ahead, will link a huge SEZ on Burma’s coast with Thailand’s capital Bangkok.

http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/35549

Reading about the planned funding from Japan, it looks as though it has hit a bit of a HUGE snag.

Links are always appreciated. The deal was just signed on the 25th, and hit the news a couple of days ago. What do you see that I can't find that isn't at least a year old?

[Thai at Heart]

Sorry, replies all went a bit wonky.

You mean the problems with the Daiwei funding, or the recent visit by Abe to Burma.

http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/35549

http://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/tnks/Nni20130515D14HH970.htm

By providing direct access to the Indian Ocean, Dawei would be a logistical boon for trade with India, Europe and the Middle East, which must now take a circuitous route through the Strait of Malacca. But the necessary infrastructure alone will cost some Y1 trillion ($10 billion). Funding is a major hurdle to moving the project forward.

Yingluck talked up Dawei during Abe's visit in January. Since March, government representatives from Japan have been participating in talks between Thailand and Myanmar on development cooperation.

A partnership between Japan and Thailand on Dawei would set a good example for investment in the ASEAN region, Yingluck said. She hopes Japanese companies will invest in power generation, telecommunications and other infrastructure for the zone.

Yingluck is talking, but it might appear the Japanese aren't listening about Daiwei.

RANGOON — Japan will lend Burma US$504 million and will cancel $1.74 billion of Burmese debt as part of a series of weekend deals that included a pledge to push development of a proposed port and commercial zone at Thilawa, a half-hour drive from downtown Rangoon, Burma’s commercial capital.

Monday, May 27, 2013

What I can see that isn't a year old, is that the Japanese aren't really behind the whole Daiwei thing, yet. Maybe that changes, but when you have a meeting on the 15th, and then on the 27th your counterpart in the meeting gets on a plane and announces funding for another project, that would seem to be quite an obvious statement.

Let's see.

Edited May 29, 2013 by Thai at Heart

[ratcatcher]

As we learned earlier this year during a brief Burmese pipeline shutdown, Burma has Thailand by the nuts regarding natural gas. So if Burma wanted to hasten the demise of Thailand, they need only to shut off the pipeline to Thailand. Thus proving that in fact oil and gas is better than rotting rice.....

right you are! the Burmese have only the demise of Thailand in mind. then they can keep their oil and gas and live happily ever after

Given the long history of war between Burma and Thailand, one side hastening the demise of the other would not be a unreasonable conclusion. But I spoke tongue in cheek. Regarding Burma's oil and gas, I am going to make a wild guess and say that China would happily buy all of it. So your fear of Burma being stuck with the oil and gas they could not sell to Thailand is not warranted... :-)

The Dawei project, if it goes ahead, will link a huge SEZ on Burma’s coast with Thailand’s capital Bangkok.

http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/35549

As you know, the Dawei project on the Dawei river and the MITT project at Tilawa on the Yangon river are two completely different projects.

The Tilawa project just downriver from the Myanmar capital is the one the Japanese are interested in as per http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/35549.

The Dawei project on the other hand is hundreds of kms down the Andaman coast and is favored by the Thais due to its proximity to the border, albeit through steep mountains.

edit to add:

“The Abe visit to Myanmar and Japan’s intensifying interest in developing Thilawa as opposed to Dawei should prompt the Thai government to rethink its strategy,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a Thai political analyst from Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University.

Edited May 29, 2013 by ratcatcher

[Thai at Heart]

Dawei hits another hurdle

02 Mar 2013

Dawei, the proposed megaport in Myanmar, has hit another snag, Thailand’s national NNT news agency has reported.

This time Japan disagrees with Thailand on some key aspects of the project, and has become reluctant to commit funding while there are still ongoing problems.

The Japanese government wants to separate the industrial port from the container port, like in the case of the Thai ports of Map Ta Phut and Laem Chabang - a proposal the Thai government does not want to accept – according to Thailand’s Transport Minister Chadchart Sittipunt.

http://www.portstrategy.com/news101/world/asia/dawei-hits-another-hurdle

[NeverSure]

Given the long history of war between Burma and Thailand, one side hastening the demise of the other would not be a unreasonable conclusion. But I spoke tongue in cheek. Regarding Burma's oil and gas, I am going to make a wild guess and say that China would happily buy all of it. So your fear of Burma being stuck with the oil and gas they could not sell to Thailand is not warranted... :-)

The Dawei project, if it goes ahead, will link a huge SEZ on Burma’s coast with Thailand’s capital Bangkok.

http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/35549

As you know, the Dawei project on the Dawei river and the MITT project at Tilawa on the Yangon river are two completely different projects.

The Tilawa project just downriver from the Myanmar capital is the one the Japanese are interested in as per http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/35549.

TILAWA MITT.jpg

The Dawei project on the other hand is hundreds of kms down the Andaman coast and is favored by the Thais due to its proximity to the border, albeit through steep mountains.

dawei 1.jpg

Yes, and a SEZ is a Special Economic Zone, not port. Japan is going to build huge industrial parks as stated in the article.

I wonder what Japan plans to do with that, considering that they've already said that labor is too expensive in Thailand?

[NeverSure]

Dawei hits another hurdle

02 Mar 2013

Dawei, the proposed megaport in Myanmar, has hit another snag, Thailand’s national NNT news agency has reported.

This time Japan disagrees with Thailand on some key aspects of the project, and has become reluctant to commit funding while there are still ongoing problems.

The Japanese government wants to separate the industrial port from the container port, like in the case of the Thai ports of Map Ta Phut and Laem Chabang - a proposal the Thai government does not want to accept – according to Thailand’s Transport Minister Chadchart Sittipunt.

http://www.portstrategy.com/news101/world/asia/dawei-hits-another-hurdle

That's almost 3 months old. The deal was inked this week.

That's the deal with Thailand hitting a snag, which we already know is a non-starter. Thailand lost.

Edited May 29, 2013 by NeverSure

[chiangmaikelly]

In the midst of all the Thai bashing I think some are missing the point. What is good for Burma is good for Thailand. One lone restaurant on a road will not make much money. 10 restaurants in a shopping mall will all do well. Same with Thailand and Burma. Burma will provide Thailand with workers for the next 10 years and the workers will send money home to better educate and fund their families. I doubt the generals will give up control of the country but even if they do it will take 50 years to get Burma to where Thailand is now. Rice is only 10% of the Thai GDP. More farmers are moving to industry every year. Thailand will be buying rice abroad soon enough. Cooperation is the idea. That's why Thailand joined ASEAN. Has anyone mentioned what incentive the generals have for giving the power to the people? The con is working so far but most people are not as gullible as posters on Thai Visa. You all do know that it is still illegal to drive motorbikes in the capital of Burma, right?

[NeverSure]

And from another thread by webfact: Link

"Thai Finance Ministry: New Financial Rule To Control Capital Inflow, Outflow."

Investors get sick of this stuff. They don't know what to expect next.

[Thai at Heart]

Dawei hits another hurdle

02 Mar 2013

Dawei, the proposed megaport in Myanmar, has hit another snag, Thailand’s national NNT news agency has reported.

This time Japan disagrees with Thailand on some key aspects of the project, and has become reluctant to commit funding while there are still ongoing problems.

The Japanese government wants to separate the industrial port from the container port, like in the case of the Thai ports of Map Ta Phut and Laem Chabang - a proposal the Thai government does not want to accept – according to Thailand’s Transport Minister Chadchart Sittipunt.

http://www.portstrategy.com/news101/world/asia/dawei-hits-another-hurdle

That's almost 3 months old. The deal was inked this week.

That's the deal with Thailand hitting a snag, which we already know is a non-starter. Thailand lost.

That is Daiwei, which isn't really moving at all at the moment because the planned funding from the Japanese hasn't materialised. The Japanese last week went over there and gave starter funding for the development in Tilawa.

But in the paper that shan't be named, I see an article from the 12th of May, that Thailand and Burma will have a meeting to settle an SPV to manage the Daiwei port, taking over the management from Ital Thai. So it might appear that the snags about getting the thing built are getting a little bigger, and that instead of relying on Japanese funding, the Thai and Burmese governments are going to fund it. Funny that, not too much mention about how much money the Thai government might be on the hook to build this thing.

[ratcatcher]

Given the long history of war between Burma and Thailand, one side hastening the demise of the other would not be a unreasonable conclusion. But I spoke tongue in cheek. Regarding Burma's oil and gas, I am going to make a wild guess and say that China would happily buy all of it. So your fear of Burma being stuck with the oil and gas they could not sell to Thailand is not warranted... :-)

The Dawei project, if it goes ahead, will link a huge SEZ on Burma’s coast with Thailand’s capital Bangkok.

http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/35549

As you know, the Dawei project on the Dawei river and the MITT project at Tilawa on the Yangon river are two completely different projects.

The Tilawa project just downriver from the Myanmar capital is the one the Japanese are interested in as per http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/35549.

TILAWA MITT.jpg

The Dawei project on the other hand is hundreds of kms down the Andaman coast and is favored by the Thais due to its proximity to the border, albeit through steep mountains.

dawei 1.jpg

Yes, and a SEZ is a Special Economic Zone, not port. Japan is going to build huge industrial parks as stated in the article.

I wonder what Japan plans to do with that, considering that they've already said that labor is too expensive in Thailand?

This possible change of focus is,unfortunately, a major blow to Thailand's aspirations re the Dawei project.

The One look at the Google Earth image and you can see just how much available land there is behind the already existing small port at Tilawa..

The SEZ planned is, as was mentioned, a short drive from Yangon and much more accessible by rail and air. So, strategically it is far better than Dawei.

There will be much discussion in the clubs of Bangkok if the project gets shelved.

[NeverSure]

Dawei hits another hurdle

02 Mar 2013

Dawei, the proposed megaport in Myanmar, has hit another snag, Thailand’s national NNT news agency has reported.

This time Japan disagrees with Thailand on some key aspects of the project, and has become reluctant to commit funding while there are still ongoing problems.

The Japanese government wants to separate the industrial port from the container port, like in the case of the Thai ports of Map Ta Phut and Laem Chabang - a proposal the Thai government does not want to accept – according to Thailand’s Transport Minister Chadchart Sittipunt.

http://www.portstrategy.com/news101/world/asia/dawei-hits-another-hurdle

That's almost 3 months old. The deal was inked this week.

That's the deal with Thailand hitting a snag, which we already know is a non-starter. Thailand lost.

That is Daiwei, which isn't really moving at all at the moment because the planned funding from the Japanese hasn't materialised. The Japanese last week went over there and gave starter funding for the development in Tilawa.

But in the paper that shan't be named, I see an article from the 12th of May, that Thailand and Burma will have a meeting to settle an SPV to manage the Daiwei port, taking over the management from Ital Thai. So it might appear that the snags about getting the thing built are getting a little bigger, and that instead of relying on Japanese funding, the Thai and Burmese governments are going to fund it. Funny that, not too much mention about how much money the Thai government might be on the hook to build this thing.

I don't understand. The Prime Minister of Japan along with a delegation of the leaders of 40 of Japan's corporations were in Burma this last weekend and inked the deal for the seaport. That's the loan for and the loan forgiveness. Big money, right now.

[Thai at Heart]

All of that funding from Japan was for Tilawa not Daiwei. Yingluck has been running around trying to get the Japanese to throw their hat in with Daiwei for funding, even only in the last few weeks. It has been mentioned for a while that Ital Thai, the developer had been struggling to get funding for Daiwei, so now in the paper that can't be mentioned, it appears that the Thai and Myanmar governments are going to step in to organise Daiwei.

The issues for Daiwei are myriad, least of which is there is not much labour down there reportedly, whereas Tilawa already has the beginning of a small industrial area.

[NeverSure]

Yingluck was just in Japan trying to sell her port and got rebuffed.

Burma is holding all of the cards over Thailand.