Thailand Withers As Myanmar Rises: Opinion

[Lancelot]

"There is a strong sense of let-down in Thailand as Myanmar rises with all kinds of optimism. Now Thein Sein is known in the US as "the icon of reform", while "the icon of democracy" is the label given to opposition party leader Aung San Suu Kyi, by the US president during her visit to Washington earlier"

O lost face when the Phuket Taxi Mafia refused to let US sailors use the chartered busses for transportation into town.

So he invited the Burma Boys in for coffee and a photo op.

Slick no?

[alanferdi]

This is what happens when you try to butter your bread on both sides.

This is encouraging news of Myanmar! It is also encouraging to know that its development is steadily increasing and that those investing in that country will have direct access to the Indian ocean. I only hope it success and that it would not copy or duplicate the corruptions that have eaten into Thailand. Promising Logisitics, security, and investment haven.

[samran]

Reading this thread, I suspect many of the Burma boosters have actually never been to Myanamar.

I'm not down on the place, but it is a challenging place to do business and my prediction is that will be a tough slog for many. A bit like the gold rush days when everyone rushed to California, only a few ever struck it rich. Same goes for Myanmar.

[alanferdi]

This is what happens when you try to butter your bread on both sides.

This is encouraging news of Myanmar! It is also encouraging to know that its development is steadily increasing and that those investing in that country will have direct access to the Indian ocean. I only hope it success and that it would not copy or duplicate the corruptions that have eaten into Thailand. Promising Logisitics, security, and investment haven.

[NeverSure]

This is what happens when you try to butter your bread on both sides.

This is encouraging news of Myanmar! It is also encouraging to know that its development is steadily increasing and that those investing in that country will have direct access to the Indian ocean. I only hope it success and that it would not copy or duplicate the corruptions that have eaten into Thailand. Promising Logisitics, security, and investment haven.

In the end, they couldn't throw in with Thailand or China. They know that Thailand is anti business (just try to start and run one as a foreigner) and that with Thais it's the Thai way or no way. The Thai way is best. They know better. Thailand won't take lessons from Japan or the West. I think this slap from Japan says a lot about what they think of doing business in Thailand. Not only did they snub the PM this month, but they outright said that labor costs are too high in Thailand. Thailand isn't anyone's partner. They are the hub.

China is gaining a reputation for controlling countries it has ties with in Asia and Africa in particular, so what's left? Throw in with Japan who offers big money up front for a harbor including big debt forgiveness and who also wants to build a big industrial complex.

Japan not only has incredibly high costs including land and labor, but they have very little land for more industry. Burma is the perfect spot for them.

Now add the clear fact that Burma has massive oil reserves to tap which big oil will invest in, and that the US has made it clear it will use the harbors and do some investing, and you have a recipe for fast growth.

Thailand is left being a third world rice exporter, lost in its own world of Thainess.

Edited May 29, 2013 by NeverSure

[Thongkorn]

Reading this thread, I suspect many of the Burma boosters have actually never been to Myanamar.

I'm not down on the place, but it is a challenging place to do business and my prediction is that will be a tough slog for many. A bit like the gold rush days when everyone rushed to California, only a few ever struck it rich. Same goes for Myanmar.

Myanmar is full ion German and Western business men at the present.

[samran]

Reading this thread, I suspect many of the Burma boosters have actually never been to Myanamar.

I'm not down on the place, but it is a challenging place to do business and my prediction is that will be a tough slog for many. A bit like the gold rush days when everyone rushed to California, only a few ever struck it rich. Same goes for Myanmar.

Myanmar is full ion German and Western business men at the present.

I know, I'm one of them.

[NeverSure]

Reading this thread, I suspect many of the Burma boosters have actually never been to Myanamar.

I'm not down on the place, but it is a challenging place to do business and my prediction is that will be a tough slog for many. A bit like the gold rush days when everyone rushed to California, only a few ever struck it rich. Same goes for Myanmar.

I think that's a good description of what it's been. Very good.

With their new rules, and this signing of an agreement with Japan this week, and with Burma's desire to have big oil start extracting oil and natural gas, and Japan committing to build a huge industrial complex, and with money in hand for their deep sea port, things are going to change.

[samran]

This is what happens when you try to butter your bread on both sides.

This is encouraging news of Myanmar! It is also encouraging to know that its development is steadily increasing and that those investing in that country will have direct access to the Indian ocean. I only hope it success and that it would not copy or duplicate the corruptions that have eaten into Thailand. Promising Logisitics, security, and investment haven.

In the end, they couldn't throw in with Thailand or China. They know that Thailand is anti business (just try to start and run one as a foreigner) and that with Thais it's the Thai way or no way. The Thai way is best. They know better. Thailand won't take lessons from Japan or the West. I think this slap from Japan says a lot about what they think of doing business in Thailand. Not only did they snub the PM this month, but they outright said that labor costs are too high in Thailand. Thailand isn't anyone's partner. They are the hub.

China is gaining a reputation for controlling countries it has ties with in Asia and Africa in particular, so what's left? Throw in with Japan who offers big money up front for a harbor including big debt forgiveness and who also wants to build a big industrial complex.

Japan not only has incredibly high costs including land and labor, but they have very little land for more industry. Burma is the perfect spot for them.

Now add the clear fact that Burma has massive oil reserves to tap which big oil will invest in, and that the US has made it clear it will use the harbors and do some investing, and you have a recipe for fast growth.

Thailand is left being a third world rice exporter, lost in its own world of Thainess.

Oh, give us a break from your whining.

You don't think much of Thai's and Thailand. We get it.

[NeverSure]

This is what happens when you try to butter your bread on both sides.

This is encouraging news of Myanmar! It is also encouraging to know that its development is steadily increasing and that those investing in that country will have direct access to the Indian ocean. I only hope it success and that it would not copy or duplicate the corruptions that have eaten into Thailand. Promising Logisitics, security, and investment haven.

In the end, they couldn't throw in with Thailand or China. They know that Thailand is anti business (just try to start and run one as a foreigner) and that with Thais it's the Thai way or no way. The Thai way is best. They know better. Thailand won't take lessons from Japan or the West. I think this slap from Japan says a lot about what they think of doing business in Thailand. Not only did they snub the PM this month, but they outright said that labor costs are too high in Thailand. Thailand isn't anyone's partner. They are the hub.

China is gaining a reputation for controlling countries it has ties with in Asia and Africa in particular, so what's left? Throw in with Japan who offers big money up front for a harbor including big debt forgiveness and who also wants to build a big industrial complex.

Japan not only has incredibly high costs including land and labor, but they have very little land for more industry. Burma is the perfect spot for them.

Now add the clear fact that Burma has massive oil reserves to tap which big oil will invest in, and that the US has made it clear it will use the harbors and do some investing, and you have a recipe for fast growth.

Thailand is left being a third world rice exporter, lost in its own world of Thainess.

Oh, give us a break from your whining.

You don't think much of Thai's and Thailand. We get it.

I love most Thais, and surely Thailand. What the leaders do is incredibly frustrating. What the leaders do is ridiculed on this forum daily non-stop by a lot more people than just me. Those are also people who love Thailand.

I'm just a realist about what the leaders are doing to the country. I've been predicting a downfall of Thailand for some time now, even in the face of defenders. I've seen this coming, and I see more problems coming. Let's just be realistic that this is actually happening.

Edited May 29, 2013 by NeverSure

[amore]

That is Daiwei, which isn't really moving at all at the moment because the planned funding from the Japanese hasn't materialised. The Japanese last week went over there and gave starter funding for the development in Tilawa.

But in the paper that shan't be named, I see an article from the 12th of May, that Thailand and Burma will have a meeting to settle an SPV to manage the Daiwei port, taking over the management from Ital Thai. So it might appear that the snags about getting the thing built are getting a little bigger, and that instead of relying on Japanese funding, the Thai and Burmese governments are going to fund it. Funny that, not too much mention about how much money the Thai government might be on the hook to build this thing.

"Funny that, not too much mention about how much money the Thai government might be on the hook to build this thing."

The Thai Government are into it to the tune of 30% according to this monthly report from Maybank dated 25th March 2013

Dawei project is moving forward. The Thai and Myanmar governments will hold a stake in the SPVs of 30% each. The Thai government will involve some state enterprises, such as PTT in the project in Dawei and the Finance Ministry will consider the issues. This will relieve ITD from a heavy investment burden. Dawei will help improve the ITD future growth potential, given the massive size with US$50bn in construction work (Bt1.55tn) over the next 16 years.

After that some eight SPVs would be established to handle all the project operations in Dawei and ITD will hold stakes in all eight Special Purpose Companies (SPCs) of not less than 25 percent. After changing the position from direct developer to investors, this will lower ITD investment burden for the project.

http://kelive.maybank-ke.co.th/KimEng/servlet/PDFDownload?DBId=2&rid=20616〈=1

[ratcatcher]

This is what happens when you try to butter your bread on both sides.

This is encouraging news of Myanmar! It is also encouraging to know that its development is steadily increasing and that those investing in that country will have direct access to the Indian ocean. I only hope it success and that it would not copy or duplicate the corruptions that have eaten into Thailand. Promising Logisitics, security, and investment haven.

In the end, they couldn't throw in with Thailand or China. They know that Thailand is anti business (just try to start and run one as a foreigner) and that with Thais it's the Thai way or no way. The Thai way is best. They know better. Thailand won't take lessons from Japan or the West. I think this slap from Japan says a lot about what they think of doing business in Thailand. Not only did they snub the PM this month, but they outright said that labor costs are too high in Thailand. Thailand isn't anyone's partner. They are the hub.

China is gaining a reputation for controlling countries it has ties with in Asia and Africa in particular, so what's left? Throw in with Japan who offers big money up front for a harbor including big debt forgiveness and who also wants to build a big industrial complex.

Japan not only has incredibly high costs including land and labor, but they have very little land for more industry. Burma is the perfect spot for them.

Now add the clear fact that Burma has massive oil reserves to tap which big oil will invest in, and that the US has made it clear it will use the harbors and do some investing, and you have a recipe for fast growth.

Thailand is left being a third world rice exporter, lost in its own world of Thainess.

Oh, give us a break from your whining.

You don't think much of Thai's and Thailand. We get it.

Whining is when you grab the football and find no-one wants to play with you. Then you whine.

Thailand is about to begin a lot of whining.

What he's doing is stating a few facts and home truths. Hard to swallow for some, but facts nevertheless

I think and respect and enjoy a lot of Thais, they are lovely people.

The Thais being referred to in his post, I believe, are the ones who can't see further than the ends of their snouts. Whining and dining.

It would seem, that in American parlance, "Thailand has dropped the ball"

.

[Scott]

Thailand overall has good infrastructure and development here has been phenomenal over the years.

The trick will be to continue to work toward getting the educated work-force that can compete with Singapore for some of the service related businesses that will be slow to develop in Myanmar.

[Phronesis]

There is only one valid response to the title of this thread:

Yes.

[chiangmaikelly]

There is only one valid response to the title of this thread:

Yes.

How do you know if a country is doing well? How would one give a valid response? Facts and figures?

GDP?

Unemployment?

External debt per capita?

Foreign investment?

Currency direction?

Rate of inflation?

[amore]

"Funny that, not too much mention about how much money the Thai government might be on the hook to build this thing."

The Thai Government are into it to the tune of 30% according to this monthly report from Maybank dated 25th March 2013

>

Dawei project is moving forward. The Thai and Myanmar governments will hold a stake in the SPVs of 30% each. The Thai government will involve some state enterprises, such as PTT in the project in Dawei and the Finance Ministry will consider the issues. This will relieve ITD from a heavy investment burden. Dawei will help improve the ITD future growth potential, given the massive size with US$50bn in construction work (Bt1.55tn) over the next 16 years.

After that some eight SPVs would be established to handle all the project operations in Dawei and ITD will hold stakes in all eight Special Purpose Companies (SPCs) of not less than 25 percent. After changing the position from direct developer to investors, this will lower ITD investment burden for the project.

http://kelive.maybank-ke.co.th/KimEng/servlet/PDFDownload?DBId=2&rid=20616〈=1

You realize that's old news and not happening. Japan signed an agreement with Burma this weekend to build the harbor somewhere else, out of Thailand's reach. Japan, backed by other Western countries, might as well have hit Thailand upside the head. It's a real slap, with some anti-Thai statements thrown in.

I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop in the form of announcements by GM and Ford that they will build complexes as Ford pulls out of Australia and consolidates. That's just a hunch but I think Japan expects help with infrastructure. The US has been in the talks.

Please tell me what in my post above is "old news and not happening"? The statement is about the Thai and Burmese stakes in the Dawei Project. Is there any mention of Japanese investment? Did I mention Japanese investment? The answer to both is No.

The Thilwa Project is one of 3 large scale Industrial Zones. The others being Maday Island and Dawei. The Japanese have signed an MOU with Burma, so have Thailand. A lot can happen between the MOU and the start of a project, ask Thailand. An example would be an enviromental impact study, one of which is being undertaken by the Japanese at the moment to ascertain the feasibility of the project.

Mitsubishi Corporation, Marubeni Corporation and Sumitomo Corporation have set up a limited liability partnership to carry out a feasibility study and an environmental impact assessment for the initial sector to be developed at the Thilawa Special Economic Zone in Myanmar. The environmental impact assessment is slated for completion during the autumn of this year.

Through the limited liability partnership, the three companies will keep a keen eye on developments in Myanmar and will base their investment decision on the likely impact of the complex on the local environment and the Myanmar government’s approach to the relocation of citizens currently occupying the property.

http://www.mitsubishicorp.com/jp/en/pr/archive/2013/html/0000021228.html

Though I'm sure with the amount of money at stake the Japanese Government and Investors will be willing to look the other way when prompted.

[NeverSure]

There is only one valid response to the title of this thread:

Yes.

How do you know if a country is doing well? How would one give a valid response? Facts and figures?

GDP?

Unemployment?

External debt per capita?

Foreign investment?

Currency direction?

Rate of inflation?

Kelly, some of those numbers are irrelevant. NONE of them is about what will be 5 years from now.

[NeverSure]

You realize that's old news and not happening. Japan signed an agreement with Burma this weekend to build the harbor somewhere else, out of Thailand's reach. Japan, backed by other Western countries, might as well have hit Thailand upside the head. It's a real slap, with some anti-Thai statements thrown in.

I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop in the form of announcements by GM and Ford that they will build complexes as Ford pulls out of Australia and consolidates. That's just a hunch but I think Japan expects help with infrastructure. The US has been in the talks.

Please tell me what in my post above is "old news and not happening"? The statement is about the Thai and Burmese stakes in the Dawei Project. Is there any mention of Japanese investment? Did I mention Japanese investment? The answer to both is No.

The Thilwa Project is one of 3 large scale Industrial Zones. The others being Maday Island and Dawei. The Japanese have signed an MOU with Burma, so have Thailand. A lot can happen between the MOU and the start of a project, ask Thailand. An example would be an enviromental impact study, one of which is being undertaken by the Japanese at the moment to ascertain the feasibility of the project.

Mitsubishi Corporation, Marubeni Corporation and Sumitomo Corporation have set up a limited liability partnership to carry out a feasibility study and an environmental impact assessment for the initial sector to be developed at the Thilawa Special Economic Zone in Myanmar. The environmental impact assessment is slated for completion during the autumn of this year.

Through the limited liability partnership, the three companies will keep a keen eye on developments in Myanmar and will base their investment decision on the likely impact of the complex on the local environment and the Myanmar government’s approach to the relocation of citizens currently occupying the property.

http://www.mitsubishicorp.com/jp/en/pr/archive/2013/html/0000021228.html

"Though I'm sure with the amount of money at stake the Japanese Government and Investors will be willing to look the other way when prompted."

Please explain this to Kelly. He doesn't see the handwriting on the wall yet. He doesn't know that Thailand has been dumped unceremoniously and publicly.

[amore]

All of that funding from Japan was for Tilawa not Daiwei. Yingluck has been running around trying to get the Japanese to throw their hat in with Daiwei for funding, even only in the last few weeks. It has been mentioned for a while that Ital Thai, the developer had been struggling to get funding for Daiwei, so now in the paper that can't be mentioned, it appears that the Thai and Myanmar governments are going to step in to organise Daiwei.

The issues for Daiwei are myriad, least of which is there is not much labour down there reportedly, whereas Tilawa already has the beginning of a small industrial area.

"whereas Tilawa already has the beginning of a small industrial area."

Mmm, well I suppose you have to start somewhere. Looking at the area on Google Maps (satellite image) the present "Thilawa Industrial Area" appears to comprise 4 large sheds, an elongated building that looks like a chicken coop and further 4 buildings the size of a garden shed

"Thilawa Industrial Zone, Yangon Region, Burma" https://maps.google.com/maps?q=Tilawa+Burma&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&ei=6LKlUZCSHKLl4AOXw4HgCw&ved=0CAgQ_AUoAg

[amore]

You realize that's old news and not happening. Japan signed an agreement with Burma this weekend to build the harbor somewhere else, out of Thailand's reach. Japan, backed by other Western countries, might as well have hit Thailand upside the head. It's a real slap, with some anti-Thai statements thrown in.

I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop in the form of announcements by GM and Ford that they will build complexes as Ford pulls out of Australia and consolidates. That's just a hunch but I think Japan expects help with infrastructure. The US has been in the talks.

Please tell me what in my post above is "old news and not happening"? The statement is about the Thai and Burmese stakes in the Dawei Project. Is there any mention of Japanese investment? Did I mention Japanese investment? The answer to both is No.

The Thilwa Project is one of 3 large scale Industrial Zones. The others being Maday Island and Dawei. The Japanese have signed an MOU with Burma, so have Thailand. A lot can happen between the MOU and the start of a project, ask Thailand. An example would be an enviromental impact study, one of which is being undertaken by the Japanese at the moment to ascertain the feasibility of the project.

>Mitsubishi Corporation, Marubeni Corporation and Sumitomo Corporation have set up a limited liability partnership to carry out a feasibility study and an environmental impact assessment for the initial sector to be developed at the Thilawa Special Economic Zone in Myanmar. The environmental impact assessment is slated for completion during the autumn of this year.

Through the limited liability partnership, the three companies will keep a keen eye on developments in Myanmar and will base their investment decision on the likely impact of the complex on the local environment and the Myanmar government’s approach to the relocation of citizens currently occupying the property.

http://www.mitsubishicorp.com/jp/en/pr/archive/2013/html/0000021228.html

"Though I'm sure with the amount of money at stake the Japanese Government and Investors will be willing to look the other way when prompted."

Please explain this to Kelly. He doesn't see the handwriting on the wall yet. He doesn't know that Thailand has been dumped unceremoniously and publicly.

In case you hadn't noticed I was disagreeing with you.

[Thai at Heart]

All of that funding from Japan was for Tilawa not Daiwei. Yingluck has been running around trying to get the Japanese to throw their hat in with Daiwei for funding, even only in the last few weeks. It has been mentioned for a while that Ital Thai, the developer had been struggling to get funding for Daiwei, so now in the paper that can't be mentioned, it appears that the Thai and Myanmar governments are going to step in to organise Daiwei.

The issues for Daiwei are myriad, least of which is there is not much labour down there reportedly, whereas Tilawa already has the beginning of a small industrial area.

"whereas Tilawa already has the beginning of a small industrial area."

Mmm, well I suppose you have to start somewhere. Looking at the area on Google Maps (satellite image) the present "Thilawa Industrial Area" appears to comprise 4 large sheds, an elongated building that looks like a chicken coop and further 4 buildings the size of a garden shed

"Thilawa Industrial Zone, Yangon Region, Burma" https://maps.google.com/maps?q=Tilawa+Burma&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&ei=6LKlUZCSHKLl4AOXw4HgCw&ved=0CAgQ_AUoAg

Reading the article in the Irrawaddy the textile industry is there. What's on daiwei?

[chiangmaikelly]

There is only one valid response to the title of this thread:

Yes.

How do you know if a country is doing well? How would one give a valid response? Facts and figures?

GDP?

Unemployment?

External debt per capita?

Foreign investment?

Currency direction?

Rate of inflation?

Kelly, some of those numbers are irrelevant. NONE of them is about what will be 5 years from now.

Well of course that is true. Do you now what they will be in 5 years? Did you know the ThaI baht would go up in value so much 5 years ago? Did you know the Thai GDP would go up so much 5 years ago? Did you know Thai unemployment would go down so much 5 years ago? Did you know that Ford, GM, Mercedes, Honda, Toyota, BMW and Nissan would open new plants in Thailand 5 years ago?

Edited May 29, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[NeverSure]

There is only one valid response to the title of this thread:

Yes.

How do you know if a country is doing well? How would one give a valid response? Facts and figures?

GDP?

Unemployment?

External debt per capita?

Foreign investment?

Currency direction?

Rate of inflation?

Kelly, can you please explain to me why governments and prognosticators and the IMF and whoever puts any weight on a country's GDP at all?

The GDP doesn't belong to the government. It belongs to the private sector.

In Thailand's case, it belongs mostly to the big foreign corporations who could pull it right out.

So how would anyone care about what Thailand's GDP is when it isn't Thailand's?

Next, GDP starts with "gross." You're been a businessman. You know that a business can have a big gross and lose money. You could be grossing 100 billion dollars a year in your restaurant chain, but don't tell me about that. Tell me what your net profit is, and what percentage that is of your gross income and I'll tell you how stable you are over time. Get it? Your gross is irrelevant without additional information. It certainly is irrelevant to Thailand when that GDP is foreign investment which is unhappy with them.

Again don't tell me about today or yesterday and then tell me tomorrow has to be the same. It's never that way for any country. Just look around.

[NeverSure]

You realize that's old news and not happening. Japan signed an agreement with Burma this weekend to build the harbor somewhere else, out of Thailand's reach. Japan, backed by other Western countries, might as well have hit Thailand upside the head. It's a real slap, with some anti-Thai statements thrown in.

I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop in the form of announcements by GM and Ford that they will build complexes as Ford pulls out of Australia and consolidates. That's just a hunch but I think Japan expects help with infrastructure. The US has been in the talks.

Please tell me what in my post above is "old news and not happening"? The statement is about the Thai and Burmese stakes in the Dawei Project. Is there any mention of Japanese investment? Did I mention Japanese investment? The answer to both is No.

The Thilwa Project is one of 3 large scale Industrial Zones. The others being Maday Island and Dawei. The Japanese have signed an MOU with Burma, so have Thailand. A lot can happen between the MOU and the start of a project, ask Thailand. An example would be an enviromental impact study, one of which is being undertaken by the Japanese at the moment to ascertain the feasibility of the project.

>Mitsubishi Corporation, Marubeni Corporation and Sumitomo Corporation have set up a limited liability partnership to carry out a feasibility study and an environmental impact assessment for the initial sector to be developed at the Thilawa Special Economic Zone in Myanmar. The environmental impact assessment is slated for completion during the autumn of this year.

Through the limited liability partnership, the three companies will keep a keen eye on developments in Myanmar and will base their investment decision on the likely impact of the complex on the local environment and the Myanmar government’s approach to the relocation of citizens currently occupying the property.

http://www.mitsubishicorp.com/jp/en/pr/archive/2013/html/0000021228.html<

/span>

"Though I'm sure with the amount of money at stake the Japanese Government and Investors will be willing to look the other way when prompted."

Please explain this to Kelly. He doesn't see the handwriting on the wall yet. He doesn't know that Thailand has been dumped unceremoniously and publicly.

In case you hadn't noticed I was disagreeing with you.

You aren't disagreeing that Japanese corporations are looking at Burma. And the decision by Japan as to where that industrial development and port will be was made within the last week, well after that article was written. It was signed last weekend.

The important part is that Japan is moving on.

[chiangmaikelly]

There is only one valid response to the title of this thread:

Yes.

How do you know if a country is doing well? How would one give a valid response? Facts and figures?

GDP?

Unemployment?

External debt per capita?

Foreign investment?

Currency direction?

Rate of inflation?

Kelly, can you please explain to me why governments and prognosticators and the IMF and whoever puts any weight on a country's GDP at all?

The GDP doesn't belong to the government. It belongs to the private sector.

In Thailand's case, it belongs mostly to the big foreign corporations who could pull it right out.

So how would anyone care about what Thailand's GDP is when it isn't Thailand's?

Next, GDP starts with "gross." You're been a businessman. You know that a business can have a big gross and lose money. You could be grossing 100 billion dollars a year in your restaurant chain, but don't tell me about that. Tell me what your net profit is, and what percentage that is of your gross income and I'll tell you how stable you are over time. Get it? Your gross is irrelevant without additional information. It certainly is irrelevant to Thailand when that GDP is foreign investment which is unhappy with them.

Again don't tell me about today or yesterday and then tell me tomorrow has to be the same. It's never that way for any country. Just look around.

I teach a course in Econ 101 that will answer all your questions but they are not the subject of this thread. For the purpose of this thread I think the comparison of GDP between Thailand and Burma is relevant. Burma is 50 billion and Thailand is 350 billion USD.

[NeverSure]

How do you know if a country is doing well? How would one give a valid response? Facts and figures?

GDP?

Unemployment?

External debt per capita?

Foreign investment?

Currency direction?

Rate of inflation?

Kelly, can you please explain to me why governments and prognosticators and the IMF and whoever puts any weight on a country's GDP at all?

The GDP doesn't belong to the government. It belongs to the private sector.

In Thailand's case, it belongs mostly to the big foreign corporations who could pull it right out.

So how would anyone care about what Thailand's GDP is when it isn't Thailand's?

Next, GDP starts with "gross." You're been a businessman. You know that a business can have a big gross and lose money. You could be grossing 100 billion dollars a year in your restaurant chain, but don't tell me about that. Tell me what your net profit is, and what percentage that is of your gross income and I'll tell you how stable you are over time. Get it? Your gross is irrelevant without additional information. It certainly is irrelevant to Thailand when that GDP is foreign investment which is unhappy with them.

Again don't tell me about today or yesterday and then tell me tomorrow has to be the same. It's never that way for any country. Just look around.

I teach a course in Econ 101 that will answer all your questions but they are not the subject of this thread. For the purpose of this thread I think the comparison of GDP between Thailand and Burma is relevant. Burma is 50 billion and Thailand is 350 billion USD.

Kelly, that's yesterday. Japan and Western companies are dumping billions into Burma, and Burma has the oil and gas wealth. The major economies are moving on and Thailand is so yesterday.

Tell me what it will be 5 or 10 years from now after the major Western economies, Japan and big oil get finished pouring money into Burma.

But it's no use telling what's happening today. I don't know why. It's in the news. I'm not making this stuff up.

When I was predicting things over the last several months I would have seen your doubt. But now it's in the news. It's happening.

[waza]

How do you know if a country is doing well? How would one give a valid response? Facts and figures?

GDP?

Unemployment?

External debt per capita?

Foreign investment?

Currency direction?

Rate of inflation?

Kelly, can you please explain to me why governments and prognosticators and the IMF and whoever puts any weight on a country's GDP at all?

The GDP doesn't belong to the government. It belongs to the private sector.

In Thailand's case, it belongs mostly to the big foreign corporations who could pull it right out.

So how would anyone care about what Thailand's GDP is when it isn't Thailand's?

Next, GDP starts with "gross." You're been a businessman. You know that a business can have a big gross and lose money. You could be grossing 100 billion dollars a year in your restaurant chain, but don't tell me about that. Tell me what your net profit is, and what percentage that is of your gross income and I'll tell you how stable you are over time. Get it? Your gross is irrelevant without additional information. It certainly is irrelevant to Thailand when that GDP is foreign investment which is unhappy with them.

Again don't tell me about today or yesterday and then tell me tomorrow has to be the same. It's never that way for any country. Just look around.

I teach a course in Econ 101 that will answer all your questions but they are not the subject of this thread. For the purpose of this thread I think the comparison of GDP between Thailand and Burma is relevant. Burma is 50 billion and Thailand is 350 billion USD.

Kelly, that's yesterday. Japan and Western companies are dumping billions into Burma, and Burma has the oil and gas wealth. The major economies are moving on and Thailand is so yesterday.

Tell me what it will be 5 or 10 years from now after the major Western economies, Japan and big oil get finished pouring money into Burma.

But it's no use telling what's happening today. I don't know why. It's in the news. I'm not making this stuff up.

When I was predicting things over the last several months I would have seen your doubt. But now it's in the news. It's happening.

I predict in 5 years Thailand will be an economic basket case if Thaksin continues to get his way. Look at his economic miracle he has produced in only 2 years.............

Conditions For The Poor Get Worse In Thailand

Thailand's industrial workers are trapped in informal loans.

Thailand debt-to-GDP ratio may reach 60 per cent due to current stimulus program

Sluggish Thai growth deepens fears of wider Asian slowdown

Extension of rice-pledging scheme: bad news - Asean Business News

Populism: Bad For Thai Economy, Good For Votes

Thai economy shrank 2.2% in first quarter - Taipei Times

Sluggish Thai growth deepens fears of wider ... - Financial Times

Funding risks | Business Standard Thai slowdown will give banks a bad hangover

http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/thailand

Edited May 29, 2013 by waza

[ratcatcher]

All of that funding from Japan was for Tilawa not Daiwei. Yingluck has been running around trying to get the Japanese to throw their hat in with Daiwei for funding, even only in the last few weeks. It has been mentioned for a while that Ital Thai, the developer had been struggling to get funding for Daiwei, so now in the paper that can't be mentioned, it appears that the Thai and Myanmar governments are going to step in to organise Daiwei.

The issues for Daiwei are myriad, least of which is there is not much labour down there reportedly, whereas Tilawa already has the beginning of a small industrial area.

"whereas Tilawa already has the beginning of a small industrial area."

Mmm, well I suppose you have to start somewhere. Looking at the area on Google Maps (satellite image) the present "Thilawa Industrial Area" appears to comprise 4 large sheds, an elongated building that looks like a chicken coop and further 4 buildings the size of a garden shed

"Thilawa Industrial Zone, Yangon Region, Burma" https://maps.google.com/maps?q=Tilawa+Burma&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&ei=6LKlUZCSHKLl4AOXw4HgCw&ved=0CAgQ_AUoAg

Since your link doesn't work, take a look at the photo of MITT (Taliwa).

Yes,they will have to start somewhere and appear to already have done so. Sure, it isn't quite Laem Chabang, but it still has infrastructure that Dawei doesn't. Rail connection to Yangon, plenty of adjacent land for expansion, very convenient for access to Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean.

I think you can see more than a few sheds and chicken coops. (If you really look)

Regardless, Tilawa with Japanese money and know how, Thaksin's Dawei money maker may have lost a bit of its gloss by now.

[SeaVisionBurma]

Off topic post removed. This topic is NOT about DETROIT

[SeaVisionBurma]

All of that funding from Japan was for Tilawa not Daiwei. Yingluck has been running around trying to get the Japanese to throw their hat in with Daiwei for funding, even only in the last few weeks. It has been mentioned for a while that Ital Thai, the developer had been struggling to get funding for Daiwei, so now in the paper that can't be mentioned, it appears that the Thai and Myanmar governments are going to step in to organise Daiwei.

The issues for Daiwei are myriad, least of which is there is not much labour down there reportedly, whereas Tilawa already has the beginning of a small industrial area.

"whereas Tilawa already has the beginning of a small industrial area."

Mmm, well I suppose you have to start somewhere. Looking at the area on Google Maps (satellite image) the present "Thilawa Industrial Area" appears to comprise 4 large sheds, an elongated building that looks like a chicken coop and further 4 buildings the size of a garden shed

"Thilawa Industrial Zone, Yangon Region, Burma" https://maps.google.com/maps?q=Tilawa+Burma&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&ei=6LKlUZCSHKLl4AOXw4HgCw&ved=0CAgQ_AUoAg

Not sure what that google maps link is supposed to show, but it doesn't go anywhere.

I'm also guessing you haven't been to Thilawa. There is certainly more than 4 sheds and a chicken coop there.