Don Mueang by-election expected to be very tight

[webfact]

DON MUANG BY-ELECTION
Poll expected to be very tight
Praphan Jundalertudomdee
The Nation


Democrat candidate Tankhun Jitt-itsara, centre, spends time with Don Muang residents as part of his election campaign. Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva has accompanied him on several occasions.

Democrat candidate's dedication to locals may earn him more votes

BANGKOK: -- The Don Muang by-election is expected to be a neck-and-neck race between the Pheu Thai and Democrat Party candidates.

In fact, it is expected to be so tight that observers have not been able to predict the outcome, with many even saying that the opinion polls are incorrect.

On Sunday, however, we will learn whether it is the government or the opposition that will get another seat in Parliament.

The ruling-Pheu Thai Party is fielding former teen heartthrob Yuranunt Pamornmontri, while the Democrats have nominated actor Tankhun Jitt-itsara.

Tankhun previously lost to the now red-carded Pheu Thai MP Karun Hosakul by 8,000 votes in 2011. During the Bangkok gubernatorial election this year, Pheu Thai candidate Pol General Pongsapat Pongcharoen won 40,073 votes in the Don Muang constituency compared to Governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra's 28,092 votes.

Over the past few years, the ruling party has repeatedly won in this obviously pro-red district. So it is obvious that most observers would place their bets on Yuranunt.

But then again, Don Muang district today is different and Yuranunt has certain weakness that cannot be overlooked.

First of all, he has no political base in the district even though his house registration papers now say he hails from the area. In comparison, Tankhun has worked diligently on garnering local support, especially during the 2011 flood crisis.

Also, the fact that municipal councillors are under the Democrat banner makes one doubt the prediction of a Pheu Thai victory.

Many pollsters are also shifting their focus on Tankhun emerging as a winner, prompting Pheu Thai to boost the number of its door-to-door campaign teams from nine to 27.

Clearly, Pheu Thai has reason to be afraid, especially since its opinion polls, which have come out with accurate predictions time after time, seem to have lost their magic.

Another indicator might be the candidates' presence in cyberspace. Tankhun regularly tweets messages and photographs and has 40,000 followers.

Plus, his Facebook page is regularly updated to woo young voters who are addicted to social media.

Yuranunt, on the other hand, has not sent out a single tweet, which means he is at least one step behind the competition.

Hence, it is perhaps safe to believe that the Don Muang by-election might end up being a repeat of the Bangkok governor's election.


-- The Nation 2013-06-12

[jcb2001]

My concern is: Will Pheu Thai attempt to sway the election by buying votes like they do in Isaan? I hope the residents of Don Muang will resist the temptation to be bought and let real democracy rule the land.

[iancnx]

Hopefully the DM voter will have been exposed to enough truths to be able to decide against Yaranunt. Unlike many parts of rural Thailand they have a better choice of media to choose from, newspapers on every corner, and a chance to converse with their neighbours and work mates from all sides of the political divide. I should be very surprised if the Dems don't go close.

[hellodolly]

"Hence, it is perhaps safe to believe that the Don Muang by-election
might end up being a repeat of the Bangkok governor's election."

That would be great the Bangkok governor's election was a rout.

With results like that there is a slim outside chance the PTP might get the message they are not wanted and change their tactics towards policies designed to help Thailand not line their pockets with money.

[rubl]

If it goes like in the Bangkok governor election it is more likely that some rather not vote than vote Democrat party. That doesn't help the Pheu Thai party candidate either.

[Robby nz]

Should the Dems win then PT would have to seriously look at their chances in a national election.

There seems little doubt that the so called 'social media' via the internet plays an increasing part in peoples awareness of what goes on in the country.

Even in the last 2 years since the last election people have had increasing access to the internet all over the country, making it more difficult to hide things that a Government may not want known.

Statements and actions that in the past may not have got any publicity are getting round the country and the world very quickly.

A great example of this was the reds actions in Lampang which never got a mention in the newspapers but were on facebook as they were happening.

Now as we see the 'minister of Vice' or whatever his title is, was forced to make a statement.

[winstonc]

remember all governments suffer a protest vote,like the uk,mid-term,,,,,,just a piont of view form a non voting farang,,,

[GentlemanJim]

remember all governments suffer a protest vote,like the uk,mid-term,,,,,,just a piont of view form a non voting farang,,,

I think they have already had their token 'protest vote', there could be a pattern setting up now

[rubl]

Just started to rain again. Lots last night as well. Let's hope the 15/16 will be dry otherwise we get all kind of funny comments on the effect of rain on elections in a flood prone area

EDIT: correct weekend

Edited June 12, 2013 by rubl

[bigbamboo]

Will Tankhun's dedication to the locals outweigh Yuranunt's (spelling?) dedication to the BB....?

[whybother]

Just started to rain again. Lots last night as well. Let's hope the 22/23 will be dry otherwise we get all kind of funny comments on the effect of rain on elections in a flood prone area :-)

Not sure why rain the week after the election would have any effect.

[rubl]

Just started to rain again. Lots last night as well. Let's hope the 22/23 will be dry otherwise we get all kind of funny comments on the effect of rain on elections in a flood prone area :-)

Not sure why rain the week after the election would have any effect.

Weekend corrected, Election Commission agreed to postponement

PS my internet connection has been doing flipflops every 5 minutes since it started to rain. Mind you, I'm out in the sticks, khet Dusit near Sukhothai Rd. in Bangkok that is

Edited June 12, 2013 by rubl

[waza]

Seem the prediction of a PTP landslide win have been premature.

[waza]

"Hence, it is perhaps safe to believe that the Don Muang by-election

might end up being a repeat of the Bangkok governor's election."

That would be great the Bangkok governor's election was a rout.

With results like that there is a slim outside chance the PTP might get the message they are not wanted and change their tactics towards policies designed to help Thailand not line their pockets with money.

Thaksin is more likely to shoot the messenger rather accept any blame for his leadership or policies

[SOTIRIOS]

...when you run the country...and everything else...with all the peoples money at your disposal.....how could you lose....

...but......make it close...to not raise any suspicions...and announce it beforehand...

[bigbamboo]

Looks like it will be very close with PT winning by just a few million baht.

[rubl]

I expect a nice new topic in five / six hours time. No rain this Saturday, maybe a nice sunny Sunday. The weather forecast doesn't mention any flooding. Let's hope the electorate will let their voice be heard.

Edited June 15, 2013 by rubl

[Robby nz]

It must be pretty important to PT, more important indeed than what will happen to the rice mountain.

I see that Yingluck was lending her support to their candidate instead of chairing the Rice Policy Committee she made herself chairperson of.

[iancnx]

Is there a live blog on the Internet giving progress? I know in Thai of course. Would get my missus to monitor it..... Or any channel covering on GMM or Truevisions?

[Robby nz]

Mrs says that after voting has closed it looks like the Dem man has won.

Nothing certain as yet, we wait to see.

[Robby nz]

Latest from the Mrs who is watching apparently live.

Very close only about 5or 600 difference at this point

[Robby nz]

Preliminary results from polling booths coming in now and all very close, most within a thousand either way.

Totals at present No8 26261, No9 24491

[rubl]

Preliminary results from polling booths coming in now and all very close, most within a thousand either way.

Totals at present No8 26261, No9 24491

If I remember correctly #8 is the Democrat party candidate and #9 the Pheu Thai party candidate?

BTW like with the BKK governor elections I expect a larger number of invalid votes. From red-shirts who don't like the PT candidate but don't want to vote Dem's either.

Edited June 16, 2013 by rubl

[Robby nz]

Latest update from the Mrs

No 8 30218

No 9 28280

[Robby nz]

With 4 polling places yet to be included totals now

No 8 31,823

No 9 29,735.

That is a total of 61,585 out of an estimated total voters of 70,000 assuming a 70% voter turnout of 100,000 eligible voters.

[GentlemanJim]

Robby, thanks for the updates

[Robby nz]

Mrs says results with all polling places counted

No 8 32,751

No 9 30,904.

This may not be final as there will no doubt be some arguing going on before a winner is declared.

However with around 63,000 votes cast and given that the Dem candidate was 8,000 votes behind last election that is a swing of around 10,000 votes, quite a percentage swing.

[Roadman]

Mrs says results with all polling places counted

No 8 32,751

No 9 30,904.

This may not be final as there will no doubt be some arguing going on before a winner is declared.

However with around 63,000 votes cast and given that the Dem candidate was 8,000 votes behind last election that is a swing of around 10,000 votes, quite a percentage swing.

Will look to having the good news of that confirmed in the morning.

[rubl]

Not sure what to think about the figures 32,751 versus 30,904. In March for the BKK governor elections it was 28092 / 40,073, for 2011 general elections Dems = PT - 8000. 63,747 votes for the two parties, any info on other votes? It may be that the Dems got a few more votes and the PT got much less. Probably some voters refrained from voting or invalidated their vote.

As this Sunday has been a rather nice day, not too hot, rain started past 3PM, I imagine that Pheu Thai was at a disadvantage as surely their working class / blue collar supporters value a nice Sunday as day off to the point of not going to vote. The Democrat voters are different, of course.

[rubl]

theNation breakingNews has:

Democrat candidate beats Pheu Thai rival in Don Muang by-election
June 16, 2013 6:22 pm
Democrat Party candidate Taenkhun Jitisara won the Don Muang by-election, beating his Pheu Thai rival Yuranan Phamornmontree, according to unofficial results.
After the vote tally was done by 100 per cent, Taenkhun received 32,751 votes while Yuranan got 30,357 votes.

It was Democrat's first victor in Don Muang over a decade. The constituency has been won by the Pheu Thai for several consecutive elections.
The Nation
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingnews/Democrat-candidate-beats-Pheu-Thai-rival-in-Don-Mu-30208455.html