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Scotland to become independent in March 2016 if referendum passes


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From my perception, the clear majority of Scots would rather stay in the Union. The trouble is that if they all think that, they may not bother turning up to vote.

The Secessionists are quite passionate, so they will definitely turn out.

Could be interesting.

inclined to agree

Same scenario when they have votes in the states on gun control.

No it isn't, they're all bought off by or scared of the Gun Lobby.

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From my perception, the clear majority of Scots would rather stay in the Union. The trouble is that if they all think that, they may not bother turning up to vote.

The Secessionists are quite passionate, so they will definitely turn out.

Could be interesting.

That will probably be the same with the UK referendum on the EU.

I think that's the reverse, I suspect the majority will be the passionate ones.

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There is a precedent; but not in the way you mean. When what is now the Republic of Ireland became independent and left the UK, the UK continued to exist.

I think Ireland gained independence before the EU came into being, not really a precedent. The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland ceased to exist.

Prior to Irish independence it was the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland; afterwards it became the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

As Great Britain is a geographical term, not a political one, and includes Scotland there may have to be a slight name change again, but the political entity of the UK will still exist.

That's an assumption. As you say, there is no precedent. The "Great Britain" part of the name was formed by the Acts of Union in 1707. Will the remainder of the UK be called something like the United Kingdom of England and Northern Ireland?

As I said, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland did not cease to exist, it became the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

True, the EU did not exist at that time, but the League of Nations did.

After Irish independence the UK remained a member of the League of Nations and the Irish Free State (later the Republic of Ireland) had to apply for membership, which was granted.

That is a precedent.

The Act of Union, 1707, formed the political entity of the Kingdom of Great Britain.

The Act of Union, 1800, added Ireland to the Union to form the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland.

Great Britain and Ireland are the geographical names for the two largest islands of the British archipelago.

All of which is somewhat moot.

No one from the EU has made the slightest suggestion that if Scotland leaves the UK that the membership of the remainder of the UK, whatever it's called, is in any doubt.

It is the new country, an independent Scotland, which will have to apply for membership.

Well, if The Irish Free State is the precedent ... they encountered no great problems joining The League of Nations and they kept the Pound Sterling ...

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True, Ireland did not encounter any problems joining the League of Nations; but it was not automatic; they had to apply.

Just as an independent Scotland will have to apply to join the EU.

Ireland after independence did not keep Sterling.

Although the Irish pound was, by choice of the Irish government, tied to Sterling until Ireland joined the European Monetary System in 1978 and the UK opted out.

The Irish pound was abolished when Ireland joined the Euro.

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Can we English people have a referendum to find out if we want Scotland in the United Kingdom?

can we have one about being in the disastrous EU? there is NO chance that the Scots will vote to leave the union.

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It is really down to one thing, Salmond's SNP is a single issue party, and when the Scots realize that independence is an ill thought out proposition they will turn on Salmond and the SNP.

The fact is, who is going to make the rest of the UK share out it assets, and by what formula? as they say possession is 9/10ths of the law.

Splitting up the NHS, pensions and welfare, fire service, police, inland revenue, customs and excise, the army, the navy, the air force, the list is endless and the administrative costs are going to be astronomical.

Then you think of national companies, are they going to split or continue to trade in both countries, with Scotland out of the EU it will make managing these companies a lot more difficult, charities will be even worse off as many get government assistance.

One thing for sure is if the Scots do vote yes they will be the biggest losers.

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It is really down to one thing, Salmond's SNP is a single issue party, and when the Scots realize that independence is an ill thought out proposition they will turn on Salmond and the SNP.

For their sakes I only hope the Scots realise this before the referendum, not find out after independence and have to come to the remainder of the UK begging to rejoin the union!

One thing for sure is if the Scots do vote yes they will be the biggest losers.

Indeed; the UK as a whole is greater than the sum of it's parts. England, Wales and Northern Ireland will lose something if Scotland leaves the union; but nowhere near as much as Scotland will.

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Another factor, I am assuming much of Eire legislation has to shadow the UK, not the other way around so the Scots will also have consider what is happening south of the boarder and act accordingly particularly if they want an open boarder, not exactly the Independence they want.

For an open boarder they would have to apply to join but I see it being in the rest of the UK's interest that they are allowed to do so anyway and be part of the UK & Eire free travel arrangement.

Another issue is if Scotland was outside the EU those using specialized hi tech equipment, would not be able to expect a service engineer to turn up in few hours with a fully equipped service van from south of the boarder, as there will be such issues as "Customs Duty" and possibly even work permits to sort out.

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Another factor, I am assuming much of Eire legislation has to shadow the UK, not the other way around

Why would you assume that? They are a sovereign country with their own currency.

Obviously a few of the sensible laws exist in both countries, but as far as I know there is absolutely no legal obligation on Ireland to make any law because the UK has one.

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... there is absolutely no legal obligation on Ireland to make any law because the UK has one.

There may be no obligation, but there is the ever-present threat of the Common Travel Area being abolished. If the Irish Republic legalised heroin, one would promptly find a significant customs presence along the border. Similarly, too discordant a policy on the presence of foreigners would result in the Republic being excluded from the Common Travel Area.

Similarly, if an independent Scotland chose to use or shadow the British pound, it could not have an independent fiscal policy. Actually, the argument that Britain's fiscal policy should not be tied to that of France and Germany also applies within the UK - I'm surprised Scotland wouldn't benefit from having its own fiscal policy. Possibly the effective counter-arguments are the fear of unsafe pairs of hands and the costs of foreign exchange.

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So what happens to all of us Scots who hold British Passports if Scotland votes for independence? What happens to our Children's nationality rights for those born here in Thailand? I for one think the Union is the way ahead. Too many Scots have watched too many movies and are still bearing either a 700 year old or a 300 year old grudge. Whatever happened in the past, it is what it is now and Scotland does very well out of the Union. Where should the English grudges start, Italy, Denmark, Norway, Germany, France? It's all water under the bridge. Independence....Big mistake.

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... there is absolutely no legal obligation on Ireland to make any law because the UK has one.

There may be no obligation, but there is the ever-present threat of the Common Travel Area being abolished. If the Irish Republic legalised heroin, one would promptly find a significant customs presence along the border. Similarly, too discordant a policy on the presence of foreigners would result in the Republic being excluded from the Common Travel Area.

Similarly, if an independent Scotland chose to use or shadow the British pound, it could not have an independent fiscal policy. Actually, the argument that Britain's fiscal policy should not be tied to that of France and Germany also applies within the UK - I'm surprised Scotland wouldn't benefit from having its own fiscal policy. Possibly the effective counter-arguments are the fear of unsafe pairs of hands and the costs of foreign exchange.

But you said "I am assuming much of Eire legislation has to shadow the UK".

I think you're wrong. But now it seems that you do, too. What they do for convenience has nothing to do with legal obligation.

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By the way, Kate Moss at the Brit Awards appealed to the Scots to "Stay with us".

I bet that's driven a few hundred thousand into the arms of the secessionists.

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So what happens to all of us Scots who hold British Passports if Scotland votes for independence? What happens to our Children's nationality rights for those born here in Thailand? I for one think the Union is the way ahead. Too many Scots have watched too many movies and are still bearing either a 700 year old or a 300 year old grudge. Whatever happened in the past, it is what it is now and Scotland does very well out of the Union. Where should the English grudges start, Italy, Denmark, Norway, Germany, France? It's all water under the bridge. Independence....Big mistake.

Even more modern history shows that only a few years grudges can be buried and forgot, take Germany for instance...

As for the Passport issue Scotland will have to issue their own, but first they will need to decide who is Scottish, their will be a lot more duel nationals.

As my grandfather was Scottish I do hope I will be able to apply for Scottish Nationality...whistling.gif

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