MAJIC Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 (edited) Leaked SNP papers - what they didn't want you to know... The leaked Swinney files – The truth about taxes, spending and oil in a separate Scotland The Swinney files part 2 Sourced from Better Together. Better check out your links,they are not working! Edited May 31, 2014 by MAJIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StreetCowboy Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 Leaked SNP papers - what they didn't want you to know... The leaked Swinney files – The truth about taxes, spending and oil in a separate Scotland The Swinney files part 2 Sourced from Better Together. Better check out your links,they are not working! They work fine for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJIC Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 Leaked SNP papers - what they didn't want you to know... The leaked Swinney files – The truth about taxes, spending and oil in a separate Scotland The Swinney files part 2 Sourced from Better Together. Better check out your links,they are not working! They work fine for me Nope! still the same,can get to the "better together page"but will not open anything 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fat Controller Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 Links work OK here in Scotland and a lot of the data tallies with the ICAS website http://icas.org.uk/ScottishIndependence/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
7by7 Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 Working ok for me. Maybe the problems at your end, Majic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
7by7 Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 SNP disarray over claims UK 'dividend' worth £1,400 to every Scot In a car-crash radio interview preceding the press conference, John Swinney, the Scottish Finance Minister, was repeatedly challenged to say how much it cost to create the infrastructure of a separate Scotland but could not.Barely two hours later, Mr Salmond announced at the press conference the figure was £250 million.However, this cost did not feature in his document and contradicted a leaked report by Mr Swinney, which said the cost of a new Scottish tax agency alone would be between £575 million and £625 million. Doubtless the pro independence lobby here will come back to state that the SNP are not necessarily going to be the future government of an independent Scotland.But they are the current Scottish governing party so should know the figures! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nontabury Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 Thought I'd throw this in the mix...admittedly in the window of a YES campaign office in Moray. 1401547338153.jpg OK smokie I will try and answer the points that are raised in the poster. 1/ distance is not 600 miles,as any schoolboy will tell you, it's 400 miles, and that's by road. The time between Edinburgh and London takes about one hour by plane. When the Union was first foamed in 1707 the traveling time by the fastest mode of transport was ?, Yes the Scottish M.P's will only constitute a small number of those in Westminster, however it will still be a greater proportion of seats than those allocated to Scotland should it ever be accepted into the E.U, and of course Scotland will only be accepted on terms stipulated by the EU. 2/Instead you can always be governed by the unelected Eurocrats. 3/ And you will benefit from the English subsidies as set out by the Barnett Formula,and as a bonus you can deny access to the Scottish universities to English people unless they pay extra for the privilege. Plus many many more perks. 4/ They will place a nuclear armament facility on the British Isles, against the wishes of many Scottish people, the same as against the wishes of most other inhabitants of the British isles. 5/ You will join a country whose health and education system MAY be privatized. At least that's what our propaganda machine would like you to believe. 6/ Scotland will SUPPLY the Westminster parliament with lying, dishonest politicians who will lead the UK into illegal foreign wars, resulting in the death of hundreds of thousands of innocent people. 7/ When our banks make a balls up of it, along with the London banks, we can expect the whole of the British people to bail us out. 8/ Scotland can supply the Westminster government with a truly incompetent Chancellor of the Exchequer, who will endeavor to bring down the whole of the British economy. 9/ Those people who can take care of themselves will be encouraged to do so. Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post rajyindee Posted May 31, 2014 Popular Post Share Posted May 31, 2014 Thought I'd throw this in the mix...admittedly in the window of a YES campaign office in Moray. 1401547338153.jpg OK smokie I will try and answer the points that are raised in the poster ... 8/ Scotland can supply the Westminster government with a truly incompetent Chancellor of the Exchequer, who will endeavor to bring down the whole of the British economy. And when he's finished doing that, he'll head up the Better Together campaign. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StreetCowboy Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 Leaked SNP papers - what they didn't want you to know... The leaked Swinney files – The truth about taxes, spending and oil in a separate Scotland The Swinney files part 2 Sourced from Better Together. Better check out your links,they are not working! They work fine for me Nope! still the same,can get to the "better together page"but will not open anything You've probably blocked it. Are you prone to a bit of Horatio Nelsoning? I see no figures... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pigeonjake Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 ive worked in scotland many many times and got a lot of good friends there, but if you do get what you want, and if that what the country want go for it, when you on holiday whos embassy are you going to go to if in trouble, salmons got his own ideas, hes going to do wonders and s££t cucumbers,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJIC Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 Working ok for me. Maybe the problems at your end, Majic? It's OK can download to Adobe Reader Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJIC Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 (edited) ive worked in scotland many many times and got a lot of good friends there, but if you do get what you want, and if that what the country want go for it, when you on holiday whos embassy are you going to go to if in trouble, salmons got his own ideas, hes going to do wonders and s££t cucumbers,,, Maybe my sarcastic words are going to come true.I once heard a Scot mouthing off about how the British Embassy don't do anything for Ex Pats and are a load of *&%&s (x 10 times) I suggested if he is not happy,then go and complain to the Scottish Embassy,in between the swearing and sputtering,he almost had a coronary,but in his favour he did mananage to point out to me,that we were a United Kingdom,and didn't give me a severe kicking,which I was grateful for! Consequently I'm not expecting him to give a No vote! Edited May 31, 2014 by MAJIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post jpinx Posted June 1, 2014 Popular Post Share Posted June 1, 2014 It's a moot point since UK is, and has been for some time, looking for a way out of the EU. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27653359#sa-ns_mchannel=rss&ns_source=PublicRSS20-sa That's a misreading of the facts. A referendum in Scotland would almost certainly produce a pro-European result. The country was disgusted last week that UKIP received enough votes to return a member to the European Parliament from the Scottish electorate. From memory, UKIP polled a mere 9% of the vote in Scotland. I would suggest to you that Scotland is avowedly pro-EU. Maybe the politicians say so - yes - but the reality will come out in a vote with a decent turnout. Westminster has always been more than a little ambivalent about being in the EU. They see themselves as major financial contributors without much control of the avalanche of beaurocracy that they have started -- fishing, immigration and agriculture policies spring to mind. Maybe this perceived Scottish pro-EU stance is worrying Westminster more than they care to admit, since it will further dilute their influence. The confusion and obfuscation surrounding the campaigns for this referendum are staggering. The long lead time runs the risk of voter fatigue/indifference (most of my family are totally fed-up with it). It would be a shame to get a result on a low turnout and then discover that the "silent majority" are disenfranchised. Before anyone lambasts me with "That's their fault for not voting!", it would be worth looking around the world at places where a vocal and active minority can carry the day at the polls but the result only causes social pain and unrest for years after............. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StreetCowboy Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 It's a moot point since UK is, and has been for some time, looking for a way out of the EU. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27653359#sa-ns_mchannel=rss&ns_source=PublicRSS20-sa That's a misreading of the facts. A referendum in Scotland would almost certainly produce a pro-European result. The country was disgusted last week that UKIP received enough votes to return a member to the European Parliament from the Scottish electorate. From memory, UKIP polled a mere 9% of the vote in Scotland. I would suggest to you that Scotland is avowedly pro-EU. Maybe the politicians say so - yes - but the reality will come out in a vote with a decent turnout. Westminster has always been more than a little ambivalent about being in the EU. They see themselves as major financial contributors without much control of the avalanche of beaurocracy that they have started -- fishing, immigration and agriculture policies spring to mind. Maybe this perceived Scottish pro-EU stance is worrying Westminster more than they care to admit, since it will further dilute their influence. The confusion and obfuscation surrounding the campaigns for this referendum are staggering. The long lead time runs the risk of voter fatigue/indifference (most of my family are totally fed-up with it). It would be a shame to get a result on a low turnout and then discover that the "silent majority" are disenfranchised. Before anyone lambasts me with "That's their fault for not voting!", it would be worth looking around the world at places where a vocal and active minority can carry the day at the polls but the result only causes social pain and unrest for years after............. Maybe someone like Putin will come to our rescue in the future... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pattszero Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 It's a moot point since UK is, and has been for some time, looking for a way out of the EU. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27653359#sa-ns_mchannel=rss&ns_source=PublicRSS20-sa That's a misreading of the facts. A referendum in Scotland would almost certainly produce a pro-European result. The country was disgusted last week that UKIP received enough votes to return a member to the European Parliament from the Scottish electorate. From memory, UKIP polled a mere 9% of the vote in Scotland. I would suggest to you that Scotland is avowedly pro-EU. Maybe the politicians say so - yes - but the reality will come out in a vote with a decent turnout. Westminster has always been more than a little ambivalent about being in the EU. They see themselves as major financial contributors without much control of the avalanche of beaurocracy that they have started -- fishing, immigration and agriculture policies spring to mind. Maybe this perceived Scottish pro-EU stance is worrying Westminster more than they care to admit, since it will further dilute their influence. The confusion and obfuscation surrounding the campaigns for this referendum are staggering. The long lead time runs the risk of voter fatigue/indifference (most of my family are totally fed-up with it). It would be a shame to get a result on a low turnout and then discover that the "silent majority" are disenfranchised. Before anyone lambasts me with "That's their fault for not voting!", it would be worth looking around the world at places where a vocal and active minority can carry the day at the polls but the result only causes social pain and unrest for years after............. There's no doubt that the small Scottish electorate has a disproportionate influence on Westminster. I predict a 78% turnout, 54-46% in favour of no, it won't be any closer than that. The majority of Scots born will narrowly vote yes, but will be defeated by English and immigrant votes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
puck2 Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 If the refendum passes for independence ..... what about Schotland joins the EU England could be State Nr. 51 of the US (reunion under different circumstances). Location, no problem. Look at Hawai. It's too difficult to survive alone. BTW, Mr. Cameron just warned Mrs. Merkel to leave the EU if she would vote for Mr. Juncker as European Commission President. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 Many off-topic, inflammatory posts and replies have been deleted. Posters continue to respond to other posters rather than to the topic. This is going to start earning warnings and suspensions. Since many of the posts deleted were replies to deleted posts, please try to limit the amount of quoting that you do. It is a shame to have posts deleted which are perfectly acceptable simply because they quote a post which violates a rule. Due to the number of off-topic posts which needed to be deleted it was not possible to simply remove the offending quotes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokie36 Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 (edited) Thought I'd throw this in the mix...admittedly in the window of a YES campaign office in Moray. 1401547338153.jpg OK smokie I will try and answer the points that are raised in the poster. 1/ distance is not 600 miles,as any schoolboy will tell you, it's 400 miles, and that's by road. The time between Edinburgh and London takes about one hour by plane. When the Union was first foamed in 1707 the traveling time by the fastest mode of transport was ?, Yes the Scottish M.P's will only constitute a small number of those in Westminster, however it will still be a greater proportion of seats than those allocated to Scotland should it ever be accepted into the E.U, and of course Scotland will only be accepted on terms stipulated by the EU. 2/Instead you can always be governed by the unelected Eurocrats. 3/ And you will benefit from the English subsidies as set out by the Barnett Formula,and as a bonus you can deny access to the Scottish universities to English people unless they pay extra for the privilege. Plus many many more perks. 4/ They will place a nuclear armament facility on the British Isles, against the wishes of many Scottish people, the same as against the wishes of most other inhabitants of the British isles. 5/ You will join a country whose health and education system MAY be privatized. At least that's what our propaganda machine would like you to believe. 6/ Scotland will SUPPLY the Westminster parliament with lying, dishonest politicians who will lead the UK into illegal foreign wars, resulting in the death of hundreds of thousands of innocent people. 7/ When our banks make a balls up of it, along with the London banks, we can expect the whole of the British people to bail us out. 8/ Scotland can supply the Westminster government with a truly incompetent Chancellor of the Exchequer, who will endeavor to bring down the whole of the British economy. 9/ Those people who can take care of themselves will be encouraged to do so. Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand You're a Tory aren't you Nontabury? In actual fact you can make a spin any way on these issues...but I found it quite amusing as an obviously biased piece. Edited June 1, 2014 by smokie36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nontabury Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 Thought I'd throw this in the mix...admittedly in the window of a YES campaign office in Moray. 1401547338153.jpg OK smokie I will try and answer the points that are raised in the poster.1/ distance is not 600 miles,as any schoolboy will tell you, it's 400 miles, and that's by road. The time between Edinburgh and London takes about one hour by plane. When the Union was first foamed in 1707 the traveling time by the fastest mode of transport was ?, Yes the Scottish M.P's will only constitute a small number of those in Westminster, however it will still be a greater proportion of seats than those allocated to Scotland should it ever be accepted into the E.U, and of course Scotland will only be accepted on terms stipulated by the EU. 2/Instead you can always be governed by the unelected Eurocrats. 3/ And you will benefit from the English subsidies as set out by the Barnett Formula,and as a bonus you can deny access to the Scottish universities to English people unless they pay extra for the privilege. Plus many many more perks. 4/ They will place a nuclear armament facility on the British Isles, against the wishes of many Scottish people, the same as against the wishes of most other inhabitants of the British isles. 5/ You will join a country whose health and education system MAY be privatized. At least that's what our propaganda machine would like you to believe. 6/ Scotland will SUPPLY the Westminster parliament with lying, dishonest politicians who will lead the UK into illegal foreign wars, resulting in the death of hundreds of thousands of innocent people. 7/ When our banks make a balls up of it, along with the London banks, we can expect the whole of the British people to bail us out. 8/ Scotland can supply the Westminster government with a truly incompetent Chancellor of the Exchequer, who will endeavor to bring down the whole of the British economy. 9/ Those people who can take care of themselves will be encouraged to do so. Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand You're a Tory aren't you Nontabury? In actual fact you can make a spin any way on these issues...but I found it quite amusing as an obviously biased piece. Wrong again smokie, I've never voted Tory in my life. Brought up in a staunchly Labour supporting family, as we're everybody in the area, the only exception in my family were those who were members of the Communist party, this at a time in history when to be a Communist was frowned upon. McCarthyism it was called. Now I am what is referred to as a floating supporter, I have no loyalty to any political party, preferring to move my allegiance to the issues of the day. In other words I prefer to listen to both sides of the argument and then make my own mind up. Much better than to be a Lemming. Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nontabury Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 Smokie, forgot to mention that I have been a supporter of Scottish separation for over 50yrs, in fact more years, than at least one Yes supporter on this thread has lived. However I will admit my reasons for supporting the Yes vote are different to the majority of Scottish "Yes"supporters. Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
7by7 Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 Thought I'd throw this in the mix...admittedly in the window of a YES campaign office in Moray. 1401547338153.jpg OK smokie I will try and answer the points that are raised in the poster. 1/ distance is not 600 miles,as any schoolboy will tell you, it's 400 miles, and that's by road. The time between Edinburgh and London takes about one hour by plane. When the Union was first foamed in 1707 the traveling time by the fastest mode of transport was ?, Yes the Scottish M.P's will only constitute a small number of those in Westminster, however it will still be a greater proportion of seats than those allocated to Scotland should it ever be accepted into the E.U, and of course Scotland will only be accepted on terms stipulated by the EU. 2/Instead you can always be governed by the unelected Eurocrats. 3/ And you will benefit from the English subsidies as set out by the Barnett Formula,and as a bonus you can deny access to the Scottish universities to English people unless they pay extra for the privilege. Plus many many more perks. 4/ They will place a nuclear armament facility on the British Isles, against the wishes of many Scottish people, the same as against the wishes of most other inhabitants of the British isles. 5/ You will join a country whose health and education system MAY be privatized. At least that's what our propaganda machine would like you to believe. 6/ Scotland will SUPPLY the Westminster parliament with lying, dishonest politicians who will lead the UK into illegal foreign wars, resulting in the death of hundreds of thousands of innocent people. 7/ When our banks make a balls up of it, along with the London banks, we can expect the whole of the British people to bail us out. 8/ Scotland can supply the Westminster government with a truly incompetent Chancellor of the Exchequer, who will endeavor to bring down the whole of the British economy. 9/ Those people who can take care of themselves will be encouraged to do so. Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand You're a Tory aren't you Nontabury? In actual fact you can make a spin any way on these issues...but I found it quite amusing as an obviously biased piece. No more nor less biased than the pamphlet you originally posted. It contained arguments for Scottish independence, nontabury countered those arguments with his own. Both are valid and it is up to individuals to decide which have the most merit. That's democracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
7by7 Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 <snip> I predict a 78% turnout, 54-46% in favour of no, it won't be any closer than that. The majority of Scots born will narrowly vote yes, but will be defeated by English and immigrant votes. The 2011 census figures show that 84% of the population of Scotland are ethnically White Scottish. 7.9% White Other British; which, of course, is not just English but Northern Irish and Welsh as well. Of the remainder, whilst they may not be White Scottish, many are second, third, or more generation; for example there has been a significant ethnic Polish population in Scotland since the war. 16% of the population are 15 or under and so unable to vote. (source) So, it would take a woefully low turnout from the ethnic White Scottish population combined with a very high turnout from the others, and the vast majority of that turnout voting No, for the non ethnic Scottish to significantly effect the result. I hope that the turnout will be high so that the result is not in doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpinx Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 If the refendum passes for independence ..... what about Schotland joins the EU England could be State Nr. 51 of the US (reunion under different circumstances). Location, no problem. Look at Hawai. It's too difficult to survive alone. BTW, Mr. Cameron just warned Mrs. Merkel to leave the EU if she would vote for Mr. Juncker as European Commission President. I think you mean that Mr Cameron told Mrs Merkel that UK might leave... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27653359#sa-ns_mchannel=rss&ns_source=PublicRSS20-sa There very little risk of Germany leaving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpinx Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 <snip> I predict a 78% turnout, 54-46% in favour of no, it won't be any closer than that. The majority of Scots born will narrowly vote yes, but will be defeated by English and immigrant votes. The 2011 census figures show that 84% of the population of Scotland are ethnically White Scottish. 7.9% White Other British; which, of course, is not just English but Northern Irish and Welsh as well. Of the remainder, whilst they may not be White Scottish, many are second, third, or more generation; for example there has been a significant ethnic Polish population in Scotland since the war. 16% of the population are 15 or under and so unable to vote. (source) So, it would take a woefully low turnout from the ethnic White Scottish population combined with a very high turnout from the others, and the vast majority of that turnout voting No, for the non ethnic Scottish to significantly effect the result. I hope that the turnout will be high so that the result is not in doubt. Thanks for those links I confess to being surprised that the "ethnic Scots" are so much in the majority. It certainly doesn't always feel like that in the streets of Glasgow or Aberdeen, but I suppose there are a lot of people there as non-resident, non-voting -- maybe just working a contract term. Also interesting is the religious divide, where christianity and "non-religious" s the overwheming majority - again, not borne out by the "noise" and impact of the minorities, especially in the cities where they live in specific areas. This kind-of supports my comment about vociferous minorities swaying the destiny of the majority. I suppose the message is - as always - get out and vote so that the "majority" is no longer silent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pattszero Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 <snip> I predict a 78% turnout, 54-46% in favour of no, it won't be any closer than that. The majority of Scots born will narrowly vote yes, but will be defeated by English and immigrant votes. The 2011 census figures show that 84% of the population of Scotland are ethnically White Scottish. 7.9% White Other British; which, of course, is not just English but Northern Irish and Welsh as well. Of the remainder, whilst they may not be White Scottish, many are second, third, or more generation; for example there has been a significant ethnic Polish population in Scotland since the war. 16% of the population are 15 or under and so unable to vote. (source) So, it would take a woefully low turnout from the ethnic White Scottish population combined with a very high turnout from the others, and the vast majority of that turnout voting No, for the non ethnic Scottish to significantly effect the result. I hope that the turnout will be high so that the result is not in doubt. Thanks for going to the trouble of proving my point. Sixteen percent of the population are not Scots-born. There won't be a low-turnout, I'm predicting 78% - I wouldn't be amazed if it's over 80%. The 16% of the electorate that are not Scots born will have a telling effect on the result. Recent polls have it that the English and immigrant community are heavily weighted against independence. @JPinx - the Northern Irish catholic contingent in Scotland are not prone to voting in British elections. A few I know have said they will vote in this one - every Northern Irish protestant I know with a right to vote will vote, and will vote no. Why? they are carrying their Northern Irish political agenda across the water. I have also been amazed at the amount of Poles and people from recently freed Iron Curtain countries that have said they will vote no due to economic reasons. It seems they think that freedom is a one way street - good for them, but Scots don't deserve it. I'm also a bit amazed at the attitude of the African community - they again are only interested in their own pockets, any notion of self-determination is alien to them. There's a difference between reaching for internet links and actually talking to people face to face you know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
7by7 Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 (edited) So, it would take a woefully low turnout from the ethnic White Scottish population combined with a very high turnout from the others, and the vast majority of that turnout voting No, for the non ethnic Scottish to significantly effect the result. Poor wording on my part; sorry. I should, of course, have said:- So, it would take a woefully low turnout from the ethnic White Scottish population with their vote more or less evenly split combined with a very high turnout from the others, and the vast majority of that turnout voting the same, for the non ethnic White Scottish to significantly effect the result. Thanks for going to the trouble of proving my point. Sixteen percent of the population are not Scots-born. No, 16% of the population are not White Scottish; doesn't mean that they not Scots born. An example, the descendants of Andrew Watson (1856-1921); the first black footballer to be capped for Scotland. Plus, of course, many who consider themselves ethnically White Scottish are descended from immigrants; Sean Connery for example whose paternal great grand parents were Irish. How many generations, Pattszero, does someone's family need to have lived in Scotland before you consider them Scottish? Sean Connery certainly considers himself Scottish, and I suspect that the descendants of Andrew Watson do, too. You say, Pattszero, that "I have also been amazed at the amount of Poles and people from recently freed Iron Curtain countries that have said they will vote no due to economic reasons. It seems they think that freedom is a one way street - good for them, but Scots don't deserve it. I'm also a bit amazed at the attitude of the African community - they again are only interested in their own pockets, any notion of self-determination is alien to them." Have you not read any of the Yes campaigns arguments? Much of those argues how much better off Scotland would be economically were it independent! Same on the other side; much of the No campaign's argument is how much Scotland would lose economically if it left the Union. Economics is the major plank of both campaigns. Edited June 1, 2014 by 7by7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpinx Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 (edited) <snip> I predict a 78% turnout, 54-46% in favour of no, it won't be any closer than that. The majority of Scots born will narrowly vote yes, but will be defeated by English and immigrant votes. The 2011 census figures show that 84% of the population of Scotland are ethnically White Scottish. 7.9% White Other British; which, of course, is not just English but Northern Irish and Welsh as well. Of the remainder, whilst they may not be White Scottish, many are second, third, or more generation; for example there has been a significant ethnic Polish population in Scotland since the war. 16% of the population are 15 or under and so unable to vote. (source) So, it would take a woefully low turnout from the ethnic White Scottish population combined with a very high turnout from the others, and the vast majority of that turnout voting No, for the non ethnic Scottish to significantly effect the result. I hope that the turnout will be high so that the result is not in doubt. Thanks for going to the trouble of proving my point. Sixteen percent of the population are not Scots-born. There won't be a low-turnout, I'm predicting 78% - I wouldn't be amazed if it's over 80%. The 16% of the electorate that are not Scots born will have a telling effect on the result. Recent polls have it that the English and immigrant community are heavily weighted against independence. @JPinx - the Northern Irish catholic contingent in Scotland are not prone to voting in British elections. A few I know have said they will vote in this one - every Northern Irish protestant I know with a right to vote will vote, and will vote no. Why? they are carrying their Northern Irish political agenda across the water. I have also been amazed at the amount of Poles and people from recently freed Iron Curtain countries that have said they will vote no due to economic reasons. It seems they think that freedom is a one way street - good for them, but Scots don't deserve it. I'm also a bit amazed at the attitude of the African community - they again are only interested in their own pockets, any notion of self-determination is alien to them. There's a difference between reaching for internet links and actually talking to people face to face you know. -------------------------------------------------- edited to show prior posts separately ------------------------------------------------- You do realise that most of the "northern irish contigent" are not catholic, but protestant ? That aside -- the basic mathematics of your prediction is that 75%-80% of the 5.25million eligible voters (thats 5.25 million less 16% too young to vote making an electorate of about 4.4million) will cast a vote, making 3.5million votes cast. The assumption is that 16% "non-Scots" will vote no (if they bother to vote) I'll assume for the sake of this discussion that the same rate of turnout will apply to non-Scots, though perceived wisdom appears otherwise, giving about 0.7million NO votes -- leaving about 3 million. In order for the "Better Together" side to get a majority of about 2.2million votes, they only have to convince about 1.5million voting Scots to vote against independence. If the non-Scots are such lazy voters as is implied, that will raise the requirement of the rejectors to convert well over 2 million "real" Scots -- almost half the electorate..... Good luck with that !! Edited June 1, 2014 by jpinx 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a99az Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 Do change the heading from "to become" to "will vote to become" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpinx Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 Do change the heading from "to become" to "will vote to become" ------------------------------------------------ why? It is totally correct as posted -- .... if referendum passes." Scotland to become independent in March 2016 if referendum passes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpinx Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 So, it would take a woefully low turnout from the ethnic White Scottish population combined with a very high turnout from the others, and the vast majority of that turnout voting No, for the non ethnic Scottish to significantly effect the result. Poor wording on my part; sorry. I should, of course, have said:- So, it would take a woefully low turnout from the ethnic White Scottish population with their vote more or less evenly split combined with a very high turnout from the others, and the vast majority of that turnout voting the same, for the non ethnic White Scottish to significantly effect the result. Plus, of course, many who consider themselves ethnically White Scottish are descended from immigrants; Sean Connery for example whose paternal great grand parents were Irish. Another example, the descendants of Andrew Watson (1856-1921); the first black footballer to be capped for Scotland. How many generations, Pattszero, does someone's family need to have lived in Scotland before you consider them Scottish? Sean Connery certainly considers himself Scottish, and I suspect that the descendants of Andrew Watson do, too. You say, Pattszero, that "I have also been amazed at the amount of Poles and people from recently freed Iron Curtain countries that have said they will vote no due to economic reasons. It seems they think that freedom is a one way street - good for them, but Scots don't deserve it. I'm also a bit amazed at the attitude of the African community - they again are only interested in their own pockets, any notion of self-determination is alien to them." Have you not read any of the Yes campaigns arguments? Much of those argues how much better off Scotland would be economically were it independent! Same on the other side; much of the No campaign's argument is how much Scotland would lose economically if it left the Union. Economics is the major plank of both campaigns. Please let's not go down the road of "What makes a man(or woman) a Scot?" The referendum agreement has decided who will vote -- can we keep the discussion to those people alone please? fwiw -"scot" is a derivation of a roman/latin word. Any Romans going to vote? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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