Protests cause number of foreign tourists to drop by 300,000: Thailand

[Tokay 1,454]

I'm going to just wait and get the "official" numbers from the TAT, which will be a 200% increase in tourism since the protests began.

[thailiketoo 3,772]

No. 423 thousand is just 22 million divided by 52 and does not take into consideration that the high season would be closer to 500 thousand and the low season closer to 300 thousand. Russians still fly into Utapao and not Bangkok I think. I would imagine from what I am hearing the big drop when people outside Thailand start to figure out that the people who closed the airport are the same ones causing this disturbance.

Edited November 27, 2013 by thailiketoo

[thailiketoo 3,772]

I'm going to just wait and get the "official" numbers from the TAT, which will be a 200% increase in tourism since the protests began.

Since TAT is the government why would they do that? That would be the opposite impression of what they want to create. I'll simplify. Red shirts have the government and the majority. Yellow shirts want the government but don't have the majority so they want to appoint a government with no elections like Napoleon in a polo shirt sort of.

[orchidlady 290]

It would be interesting to know how many Chinese tourists Thailand has lost since their government outlawed the "zero Baht" tours. The largest number of tourists that come from any one country are Chinese so this could be substantial. The Russians threatened to move their tourists to adjoining countries based on scams and safety issues. There has been plenty of publicity that DSI wants to clean up the jewel scams in Bangkok and Phuket. For the government to state that I think there had to be some substantial drop off in tourists.

So if we could get those numbers and subtract from the figure the government is stating-that would be due solely to political situation. That is how a proper analysis of variance is conducted. Based on the lack of transparency in the rice and other financial schemes I don't expect this information from the government. To claim this figure as solely due to the political situation is a convenient scapegoat for the government for political advantage. Now cancellations after yesterday or today (on onward) could accurately be counted as due to the political situation since the protests have taken a different direction with the sit ins and taking over the offices.

[monkeycountry 2,112]

To Monkey. Sorry I didn't notice. My posts was directed and I quoted bigbamboo. I have no desire to engage you in a logic argument. If you know the Thai numbers are wrong post the right ones. If not I don't see the purpose of a discussion with you.

I would not discuss logic if I was you either :-)

Anyway, the right numbers are 800 tourists, causing an estimated loss of 3 million baht. My source is the same as the one referred to by khun Suwat Sitthilor in the OP. Hope this helps.

Sorry afraid you lied. Suwat did not list a source for his information. Whatever you know you made up. 300,000 may be accurate it may not. There are two points. 1. Whatever it is it is bad for the economy and Thailand. 2. You are not in a position to know more about tourism in Thailand than a minister who has access to arrival and departure information at the airport. What is your reason for trying to diminish the damage to the Thai economy?

I am aware there is no source, that was the point of my post, which unfortunately you did not get. The point is these officials pull numbers out of a hat whenever it suits them, which is why khun Suwat Sitthilor did not mention a source. I can do that too, as I showed you in my post.

khun Suwat Sitthilor, who is not a minister btw, cannot possibly have used arrivals at the airport to come up with this number, as 300,000 less arrivals in about a week would mean the airport is more or less empty. He also cannot have used cancellations, as the airlines do not provide these numbers to the ministry, and even if they did, they would definitely not do it on a weekly basis. Hotel cancellations cannot be used for the same reasons. That leaves the question, what source did he use. I guess he used the same as me - none!

Further, unlike khun Suwat Sitthilor, I have no motive for producing fake numbers. khun Suwat Sitthilor may be motivated to exaggerate the numbers to upset the tourism industry, which is mostly in Bangkok and the south (democrat voters), in order to get the tourist industry to put pressure on the anti government demonstrators to get them to go home.

Last but not least, the PTP has publicly admitted they are not capable of calculating losses (rice scam), so why should we suddenly trust they are capable of calculating losses now - and really fast too? Is it not likely that even if they have the raw numbers (which they don't yet), that they are incapable of processing them, and instead just make them up, knowing that enough voters (including you) will believe whatever they say anyway without question?

Edited November 27, 2013 by monkeycountry

[monkeycountry 2,112]

I'm going to just wait and get the "official" numbers from the TAT, which will be a 200% increase in tourism since the protests began.

Since TAT is the government why would they do that? That would be the opposite impression of what they want to create. I'll simplify. Red shirts have the government and the majority. Yellow shirts want the government but don't have the majority so they want to appoint a government with no elections like Napoleon in a polo shirt sort of.

I see you do not know much about how the TAT works. Yes, the TAT is part of the government, but it also has it's own agenda. High tourist numbers generally tells the government that the TAT does a good job, which means more funding for the TAT next year. And like you, the government does not question the numbers given by the TAT. The TAT is infamous for pushing up the numbers for that exact reason, and if you ever talk to hotel managers, even at big hotel chains, you will find that not a single one of them believes anything the TAT says - including Thai hotel managers. They are providing raw numbers to more reliable private agencies and associations who then process the figures for them.

Edited November 27, 2013 by monkeycountry

[coralia 31]

No worries. Quality Chinese tourists are always an option.

Asian tourists are the first to get scared and cancel their trips whenever there is trouble.

[oogster8 220]

15 November: ATTA says protest not yet affect tourism

27 November: Protests cause number of foreign tourists to drop by 300,000: permanent secretary

Come on chaps, get your story straight.

Tourist stopeed cumming on Nov 16. Make cents to me.

[soomak 165]

How was this determined? From ticket cancellations?

It can't be due to hotel cancellations because we were told just a couple of days ago that there haven't been any.

Today is Wednesday. The protests began when? Last week? Last week they were claiming that the protests won't have any effect. 22mn tourists is approximately, wait for it, 423,000 per week. So they have seen a 75% drop in a week? Now someone is telling some porkie pies. Are the resorts or the airports a complete wasteland?

I really wonder who these statements are aimed at anyway? The international press? Do they care? The thai hoteliers? Well they know whether they are full or not? The general public? What do they care? They have had tsnumais and floods to deal with. Who cares whether Thailand has 21 or 22mn tourists?

You ask "22mn tourists is approximately, wait for it, 423,000 per week. So they have seen a 75% drop in a week?"

Well, as I see it, the tourists "lost" is by counting both arrivals and cancellations, which can spread over the next 4-6 weeks, maybe more.

If the number of tourists expected in the last 5 weeks of 2013 was 2.5 million (it's high season), than a 300,000 drop is only 12% - and this seems reasonable.

[monkeycountry 2,112]

How was this determined? From ticket cancellations?

It can't be due to hotel cancellations because we were told just a couple of days ago that there haven't been any.

Today is Wednesday. The protests began when? Last week? Last week they were claiming that the protests won't have any effect. 22mn tourists is approximately, wait for it, 423,000 per week. So they have seen a 75% drop in a week? Now someone is telling some porkie pies. Are the resorts or the airports a complete wasteland?

I really wonder who these statements are aimed at anyway? The international press? Do they care? The thai hoteliers? Well they know whether they are full or not? The general public? What do they care? They have had tsnumais and floods to deal with. Who cares whether Thailand has 21 or 22mn tourists?

You ask "22mn tourists is approximately, wait for it, 423,000 per week. So they have seen a 75% drop in a week?"

Well, as I see it, the tourists "lost" is by counting both arrivals and cancellations, which can spread over the next 4-6 weeks, maybe more.

If the number of tourists expected in the last 5 weeks of 2013 was 2.5 million (it's high season), than a 300,000 drop is only 12% - and this seems reasonable.

Please do let me know how the TAT knows the cancellation numbers? Only the hotels and airlines know these numbers, and besides perhaps THAI Airways, they are not reporting them to the TAT daily or weekly. In fact as far as I know they do not report them at all.

[Thai at Heart 17,307]

How was this determined? From ticket cancellations?

It can't be due to hotel cancellations because we were told just a couple of days ago that there haven't been any.

Today is Wednesday. The protests began when? Last week? Last week they were claiming that the protests won't have any effect. 22mn tourists is approximately, wait for it, 423,000 per week. So they have seen a 75% drop in a week? Now someone is telling some porkie pies. Are the resorts or the airports a complete wasteland?

I really wonder who these statements are aimed at anyway? The international press? Do they care? The thai hoteliers? Well they know whether they are full or not? The general public? What do they care? They have had tsnumais and floods to deal with. Who cares whether Thailand has 21 or 22mn tourists?

You ask "22mn tourists is approximately, wait for it, 423,000 per week. So they have seen a 75% drop in a week?"

Well, as I see it, the tourists "lost" is by counting both arrivals and cancellations, which can spread over the next 4-6 weeks, maybe more.

If the number of tourists expected in the last 5 weeks of 2013 was 2.5 million (it's high season), than a 300,000 drop is only 12% - and this seems reasonable.

So if they rebook in 3 weeks time this is a gain? So this could be 300k over 6 weeks. Aha. So barely a crisis.

[airconsult 451]

How was this determined? From ticket cancellations?

It can't be due to hotel cancellations because we were told just a couple of days ago that there haven't been any.

Today is Wednesday. The protests began when? Last week? Last week they were claiming that the protests won't have any effect. 22mn tourists is approximately, wait for it, 423,000 per week. So they have seen a 75% drop in a week? Now someone is telling some porkie pies. Are the resorts or the airports a complete wasteland?

I really wonder who these statements are aimed at anyway? The international press? Do they care? The thai hoteliers? Well they know whether they are full or not? The general public? What do they care? They have had tsnumais and floods to deal with. Who cares whether Thailand has 21 or 22mn tourists?

You ask "22mn tourists is approximately, wait for it, 423,000 per week. So they have seen a 75% drop in a week?"

Well, as I see it, the tourists "lost" is by counting both arrivals and cancellations, which can spread over the next 4-6 weeks, maybe more.

If the number of tourists expected in the last 5 weeks of 2013 was 2.5 million (it's high season), than a 300,000 drop is only 12% - and this seems reasonable.

Please do let me know how the TAT knows the cancellation numbers? Only the hotels and airlines know these numbers, and besides perhaps THAI Airways, they are not reporting them to the TAT daily or weekly. In fact as far as I know they do not report them at all.

APIS - advance passenger information system.

Generally used by immigration (so they know who is turning up when and if necessary have done background checks) but a sanitized version of the data - just numbers - is generally available to other bodies to allow for planning purposes.

One of the perils of living in the modern world - as soon as you book a ticket, lot's of people know you're going somewhere.

Edited November 27, 2013 by airconsult

[thailiketoo 3,772]

I'm going to just wait and get the "official" numbers from the TAT, which will be a 200% increase in tourism since the protests began.

Since TAT is the government why would they do that? That would be the opposite impression of what they want to create. I'll simplify. Red shirts have the government and the majority. Yellow shirts want the government but don't have the majority so they want to appoint a government with no elections like Napoleon in a polo shirt sort of.

I see you do not know much about how the TAT works. Yes, the TAT is part of the government, but it also has it's own agenda. High tourist numbers generally tells the government that the TAT does a good job, which means more funding for the TAT next year. And like you, the government does not question the numbers given by the TAT. The TAT is infamous for pushing up the numbers for that exact reason, and if you ever talk to hotel managers, even at big hotel chains, you will find that not a single one of them believes anything the TAT says - including Thai hotel managers. They are providing raw numbers to more reliable private agencies and associations who then process the figures for them.

Nonsense. They all get data from the airport which is substantially down.

[thailiketoo 3,772]

So if they rebook in 3 weeks time this is a gain? So this could be 300k over 6 weeks. Aha. So barely a crisis.

There is a good forum to read about the current crisis called ThaiVisa. Check it out,

Countries issuing Thailand travel warnings now rise to 28

Anti-government rallies in Thailand gain momentum

Anti-government protests spread to Thai provinces

Protesters lay siege to more Thai ministries; some officials express support

UN leader Ban Ki-moon concerned by Thailand protests

The anti government protestors dumped the economy by closing the airport and now they are trying it again.

Think of the governments that have elections and now think of the governments that don't have elections. Which side are you on? Ya I know Stalin and Mao did a wonderful job.

[Thai at Heart 17,307]

So if they rebook in 3 weeks time this is a gain? So this could be 300k over 6 weeks. Aha. So barely a crisis.

There is a good forum to read about the current crisis called ThaiVisa. Check it out,

Countries issuing Thailand travel warnings now rise to 28

Anti-government rallies in Thailand gain momentum

Anti-government protests spread to Thai provinces

Protesters lay siege to more Thai ministries; some officials express support

UN leader Ban Ki-moon concerned by Thailand protests

The anti government protestors dumped the economy by closing the airport and now they are trying it again.

Think of the governments that have elections and now think of the governments that don't have elections. Which side are you on? Ya I know Stalin and Mao did a wonderful job.

And tat have quantified that 300k have cancelled in 10 days since the protests. Give it another 10 days and phuket will be a ghost town right?