Temporary sigh of relief for PM Yingluck: Analysis

[webfact]

NATION ANALYSIS
Temporary sigh of relief for PM
Somroutai Sapsomboon
Jintana Panyaarvudh
The Nation



Yingluck may have to choose between dissolving the House or resigning

BANGKOK: -- The Pheu Thai-led government has cleared a political hurdle, with embattled Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra surviving a no-confidence vote in Parliament. But the relief will be short-lived.

Yingluck now has more cards to play: she can now call a House dissolution or resign to break the political impasse. The attempt mounted before the no-confidence vote to pave the way for a non-democratic system appears to be fading.

However, anti-government protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban has made it clear that the protest's ultimate goal is the downfall of the "Thaksin regime" and its replacement with a "people's council".

He has insisted that a House dissolution or a resignation would not be sufficient.

Suthep yesterday explained that some laws need to be amended to change the country into a true democracy under a constitutional monarchy.

Some key figures have urged the government and the opposition to step back and hold talks quietly for the sake of the country. If the two sides agree unanimously that it is necessary to reform the country, they should take heed of these figures.

If talks are actually held, a possible proposal could be the formation of a national unity government. This government, which could be either elected or non-elected, would perform the duty of administering the country while a committee is set up to work out reforms for the country. If the option of a non-elected government was to be pursued, laws would need to be changed to make this possible, however.

"This could be a real reset to zero for the country," a political observer said.

Another option would be for Yingluck to call for a general election, with the anti-government group forming an alternative party.

A source from the anti-government protest, who asked not to be named, said this option was welcomed by some of the protesters as it is within the law.

"Currently, around 30 per cent of voters are non-partisan, favouring neither the Pheu Thai Party nor the Democrat Party. A new party could be an alternative to catch these votes," the source said.

However, judging from Yingluck's national address yesterday, she will likely stay and fight her opponents. Early in the morning, she told reporters that a House dissolution would not be her choice. She also responded for the first time to Suthep's proposed "People's Council", saying it was not possible under the law.

So, the political impasse remains.


-- The Nation 2013-11-29

[bigbamboo]

If she did resign who would PT bring in to replace her? Would there be a leadership election as Mr T apparently has no influence on the party now or would they choose from the wide ranging shortlist of front runners.......Waoyappa Shinawat, Pingpongthai Shinawat or Pantstongtae Shinawat?

Just what Thai politics needs.... some new blood.

[backtonormal]

"However, anti-government protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban has made it clear that the protest's ultimate goal is the downfall of the "Thaksin regime" and its replacement with a "people's council"

Now we are getting near the truth. Why are certain people so scared of Thaksin. Maybe its the position they believe he will hold in the future. If that happens its end game for Suthep and his mates

[Lite Beer]

A post involving The Royal Family has been removed as per forum rules.

[jdinasia]

"However, anti-government protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban has made it clear that the protest's ultimate goal is the downfall of the "Thaksin regime" and its replacement with a "people's council"

Now we are getting near the truth. Why are certain people so scared of Thaksin. Maybe its the position they believe he will hold in the future. If that happens its end game for Suthep and his mates

I doubt those are his worries. Thaksin is now barred from politics for life having been sentenced to a prison term in excess of 1 year. There is no direct position for him in government again ... unless of course, the government goes back on its word and slams the amnesty through in a little over 160 days. Which may be why YL is holding on for dear life.

Thaksin ran when he could have just as easily stayed and fought. He may have ended up in jail or maybe not, but he ran. Had he stayed he could have continued to fight in the framework of a constitutional monarchy, he could have continued to fight the charges against him ... but of course he would have faced all those other charges. The one that got him was the easiest to prove, the rest are still waiting on his return.

BTW --- the pretext of the article is silly. There was never a chance that the censure debate was going to go against Yingluck. The censure debate was just about getting info about her failures out there and buying time in which she could not dissolve parliament to let that info spread out across the country. It also gave time for the street politics to gain momentum.

There is some truth in the article though .... unless there is a reset to 0 and some form of unity government all we will see is more of the same for the foreseeable future.

[slapout]

The present gpvernment is (for lack of a better word) contanimated with the shin family, its mindset and those they have elivated to a support status within their organization.

When Taksin made his intial run for the untimate position/power, it was about self enrichment, Thai people be damned. There has been a coup government, a democrat coalition (another several steps down/back for the democrats) and both were following a government under various names, but never the less, made up of Thaksin lackeys/family. We are on the 4th version and each one seems to bring turmoil, increased corruption, no improvenment to those most in need, and the runaway enrichment of those associated/aligned with this family.

Medical science has not figured out how to accurately determine what brings the worst out in humans nor a fix, but society has determined the ways to deal/punish those responsible and those who assisted them.

[chainarong]

P.M. Yingluck has survived nothing , it's the people not the parliament that want change, nothing the PM can do will change this fact ,on the opposite side of the fence the protesters must have the support of at least sixty five per-cent of the Thai population for change otherwise they have just wasted their time, so in perspective walking the tight rope on both sides is a big worry.

[ggold]

The censure vote was never going to oust the government, because they have a majority. But that doesn't give her respite as suggested in the OP she is still fighting a losing battle to stay in power.

She has repeatedly said no dissolution or resignation, and is not going to call a snap election anytime soon.

The Nation is rubbish, the other paper is a better read, IMO

[TVGerry]

"If talks are actually held, a possible proposal could be the formation of a national unity government. This government, which could be either elected or non-elected, would perform the duty of administering the country while a committee is set up to work out reforms for the country. If the option of a non-elected government was to be pursued, laws would need to be changed to make this possible, however."

I like this idea really. But the big boss in Dubai would never agree to it.

[Bagwan]

"However, anti-government protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban has made it clear that the protest's ultimate goal is the downfall of the "Thaksin regime" and its replacement with a "people's council"

Now we are getting near the truth. Why are certain people so scared of Thaksin. Maybe its the position they believe he will hold in the future. If that happens its end game for Suthep and his mates

It may well be end game for Thailand too many believe.

Let bygones be bygones won't work. Tak Bai and the murder of alleged drug pushers should not be swept under the carpet. The party is over and the piper must be paid - not in kind but in unkind.

[Wombat6]

i think a change of Government is required. maybe we will see some outstanding issues resolved..ie... The Red Bull heir should face justice as should the Monk living in Laos who had his private jet and facing sex charges and perhaps money laundering charges and the guy who issued a new passport to Thaksin and Yingluck who didn't declare her 2.5 M baht watch in her assets statement as required, the removal of the Rice pledging scheme which in my opinion is way for the PTP to buy votes from Rice farmers at the taxpayers expense etc. etc.

[Jasun]

"government, which could either be elected or non-elected"

That is the scary part.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Jasun]

"government, which could either be elected or non-elected"

That is the scary part.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Basil B]

Yingluck may have to choose between dissolving the House or resigning

I think she is too late, things have gone to far Thailand is only hours away from yet another major event in it's history...

What will happen, or what will be the outcome, I do not know what but one thing I am sure of "Something will Crack" and that "Stupid Girl" is to blame.

[rct99q]

i think a change of Government is required. maybe we will see some outstanding issues resolved..ie... The Red Bull heir should face justice as should the Monk living in Laos who had his private jet and facing sex charges and perhaps money laundering charges and the guy who issued a new passport to Thaksin and Yingluck who didn't declare her 2.5 M baht watch in her assets statement as required, the removal of the Rice pledging scheme which in my opinion is way for the PTP to buy votes from Rice farmers at the taxpayers expense etc. etc.

Change to what? Nearly every Thai politician is driven by one thing....greed. No matter what title they hold or party they belong to. There are approximately 27,000,000 voters in Thailand and less then 2 percent are actively protesting. The rest don't give a rats ass. The PTP will always garner the most votes based on its support from the voters in the North and North East.

Do not be confused by the term Democrat Party, they are as rife with corruption as the PTP. At least the PTP ripps off from the rich and poor and returns a little to the poor. The Dem's rip off the poor and return a little to the Wealthy to keep them happy and stuff the poor!

The rest of your post about the red bull guy and what not are just sensational headlines brought up by westerners.....the people and political parties here don't really care.

Remember Columbine in the U.S. All the newspapers and tv and politicians all stamping their feet saying this was wrong blah, blah, blah...that was 1999 and now 2013 and what...more shootings blah, blah, blah.

[siampolee]

Yingluck might be well advised as would her brother, their family members and the rest of their brown nosing acolytes to remember that old Russian proverb

'' Dwell on the past and you'll lose an eye.

Forget the past and you'll lose both eyes

Edited November 29, 2013 by siampolee

[Baerboxer]

She won't resign or dissolve the house. She will cling on - because that's what her brother instructs.

He needs to be back, free of all convictions and charges, with his hands on the 2.2 trillion and control of the senate to remove checks and balances. Then he can go for his real game plan. Imagine sometime in the future, a changed society, with a Shinwattra in every key position, a one party state, with highly controlled media and no opposition or criticism allowed. Bit like North Korea but with a "tourist" industry. Is it any wonder China is now praising Madame PM/DM ?

Can anyone think of a dictator that actually really benefited the people? Or even gave a toss about them ?

Maybe many protesters and those supporting the protests are aware of the real goal this person is really pursuing. If so, the chances of a negotiated settlement are pretty slim.

What's really sad is the poor people of Thailand who are being exploited by a gang of crooks, told lies and ripped off, whilst thinking things will change for the better.

Nothing changes.

[riceyummm]

"People’s Army to Overthrow Thaksin Regime"

Politics aside, ya gotta love the acronym.