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Red shirts in Chiang Mai in favour of new capital in case of coup


webfact

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As a reminder, most of Thailand's hydro power flows down out of the north and north east. Lose Issan and other PTP strongholds, and Bangkok and the central industrial estates dependent upon that electricity go dark. The region is also the major source of fresh water that replenishes the watersheds upon which much of the population in the central and Bangkok regions depend. Consider the implications of impeded access to cheap food, even if it was only for a few months. As much as some people wish to discount the PTP loyalist regions, they are needed for the survival and prosperity of Thailand.

The whole idea of creating 2 countries is idiotic proposed out of rehetoric and not common sense, it makes far more sense for the country to be united, and certainly it would likely be the North/Northeast that would be the 'loser' (it is not a zero sum game, both would lose, but N/NE would lose a lot more) if there was a major breakup of the country and they had to replicate all infrastructure. It is indeed likely true that the biggest impact would be access to a good workforce needed for the prosperity of the central zone (more Thais work in factories/services than in the fields now) - however power, food, water are all likely to see north/northeast coming out worse, and central coming out ahead of where we are now assuming we didn't have to carry them anymore - the N/NE would also suffer in terms of benefits from tourism, service, finance etc - while it is possible they would be better governed (seems highly unlikely given the quality of Thai regional politicians) and so grow quickly, it is worth bearing in mind we are talking about the less educated, less experienced, less financially secure populace. Rather - we would see what we see now - a huge number of them, often the more ambitious and hardworking, wanting to live in the Central area as they do now. That would leave behind the type of workforce we see in upcountry villages now - poor, unskilled, uneducated, without resources. Not the ideal start for building a country.

With regards to geriatrickid's comments...I'd add a little about power, water, food.

POWER

Regarding power, looking at 2012 data, we can see hydro is an important part of the supply curve but it is far from substantial.

http://www.eppo.go.th/info/5electricity_stat.htm

That's ignoring who would cover the costs of paying for the infrastructure in place now - note it was the central government not the region who created the dams and powerstations from the north and the northeast, it wasn't money necessarily coming from that region, and as I am sure you are aware, the trend would likely be that large factories and central industrial estates are able to purchase power in a relatively less regulated market with a centralised grid system were there to be 2 countries, simply because the north/northeast would be left mostly with only SMEs and residential, none of whom currently pay the true cost of the power - they are all cross subsidised by the industrial/commercial sector (there are reasons for this relating to load profile, metering/admin costs, network costs to serve all people) - as most deregulated markets have discovered - homeowners/SMEs in the north/northeast would immediately be hit with massive price increases on their power to keep the power producers and network operators afloat - the lignite power would disappear pretty quickly at a guess other than to handle peak power and hydro cannot supply power easily matching the load profile of the typical home 24 hours a day (it provides a great base load, not so good for peak load). The north would only be able to sell power to the central area at market price, simply because the central area could use IPPs and new power stations with different fuel stocks which is what has happened now anyhow; this would also do away with transmission losses with embedded generation.

2012 data - power mostly it comes from the IPPs and natural gas:

HYDRO 8,431.22 5%

FUEL OIL 1,299.96 1%

LIGNITE 18,802.01 11%

GAS 52,568.77 30%

IMPORTED 10,527.43 6%

SPP 15,134.22 9%

IPP 70,143.04 40%

TOTAL 176,973.14

Rather what would happen, in the impossible and idiotic scenario would be that the production area of Thailand (Bangkok/Central) would simply bypass and source from Laos etc or build more power stations in their areas.

FOOD

Food would be a non issue - food can always be bought on the open market - given rice yields in the central plain, it would seem likely. were the central zone have the ability to buy at open market, while the north/northeast kept rice pledging, it is likely rice prices would reduce in price in the central area through importation/local crops, while the north/northeast would again, be likely to either go hungry and/or bankrupt as they would not have the tax base to keep the scheme going while they would be unable to sell the rice (if the scheme was kept as it is now) to anyone since their price is double market price.

Diversity of production could be maintained through imports for both 'countries'

WATER

Watershed is controlled via country agreements, in this case, it would be useful to consider that while none are concrete, the likelihood would be some form of agreement; again it would be quite possible for the central area to have fewer water problems than the likely impoverished north/northeast who would not have access to the sea without keeping water ways full enough to use them.

Helsinki Rules (see also new Berlin Rules)

Rules on the Uses of the Water of International Rivers (ILA, Helsinki, 1966)

http://www.internationalwaterlaw.org/IntlDocs/Helsinki_Rules.htm

Helsinki Convention

Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes (UN-ECE, Helsinki, 1992)

http://www.unece.org/env/water/

UN Convention

Convention on the Law of the Non-navigational Uses of International Watercourses (UN, New York, 1997)

http://www.internationalwaterlaw.org/IntlDocs/Watercourse_Conv.htm

SUMMARY

In this day and age with increasing reduction in borders, there is no justification or reason to consider breaking Thailand into multiple countries. I still feel that decentralising control and providing each region with their own government and control would then allow all regions to have the exact type of government they deserve.

I have a sneaking suspicion, this would also solve a lot of the current corruption problems, once local representatives became far more accountable.

Edited by steveromagnino
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As the north is very lucky with water - while most rice farms in Eesan and down south sadly have only 1or maybe 2 harvests a year the north has 3 rice harvests!

Do you know who initiated the building of the dams etc.? It's not Thaksin.

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As strange as it sounds, it might be the best solution to Thailand's yellow / red conflict. It will never end, because if yellow has the power, red will protest and if red has the power, yellow will protest.

Make North Thailand and South Thailand. Problem solved.

The division would probably be quite short. As the North Thailand "Takki" approaches 10 to the Laos Kip, I would expect to find members of the Shinawatra family and their supporters decorating light-poles along the highway south as emissaries head down to beg forgiveness and reunion.

And the folks in Bangkok might find that without all the farmers filling the bread basket they would have to import their food from somewhere else.

And what would be the difference? Do you think the people in bangkok get their rice for free now? They will just buy it from vietnam instead of buying it from the thai farmers/millers. It will not change the people in bangkok's ability to get rice and it will most likely be less expensive.

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An interesting concept, though which provinces choose to join which of the 2 halves might surprise many people.

The division of India was along religious lines. The idea of separation from the supporters of corrupt government who also happen to be nett taxation beneficiaries makes more sense, at least for the tax payers, but you can be sure Thaksin will be against it - he knows where the money comes from.

As a reminder, most of Thailand's hydro power flows down out of the north and north east. Lose Issan and other PTP strongholds, and Bangkok and the central industrial estates dependent upon that electricity go dark. The region is also the major source of fresh water that replenishes the watersheds upon which much of the population in the central and Bangkok regions depend. Consider the implications of impeded access to cheap food, even if it was only for a few months. As much as some people wish to discount the PTP loyalist regions, they are needed for the survival and prosperity of Thailand.

Sure ... like everyone in places like Singapore have no food to eat, no water to drink and live in kerosine light at night.

Who cares?

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Sorry, but I wasn't aware that Lanna culture was "Chinese based". In what sense? The architecture, religion, artistic styles, food, dialect, festivals, etc are quite distinct from Han culture as far as I know. Compare it to Vietnam, for instance, for a clearly Chinese influenced culture.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

So you think all of China is Han based?

Of course not, but Han is the dominant culture (and it is a dialect of the Han that is the official language). That's I why I specified Han and not Chinese ... "Chinese" is an otherwise meaningless term if not referring to Han culture. What does "Chinese-based" mean? Dai, Mogolian, Manchurian, Tibetan, etc? If someone is going to make an assertion about cultural influence, then they need to be precise. I assumed the term 'Chinese based' referred to Han culture, it being the dominant group. If not, then we need to know what minority culture is being referred to. Can you enlighten?

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What are the financial requirements for retirement visas? whistling.gif

Probably a lot higher since Thaksin is the one that raised it from 400k to 800k.

He is also the one that said if all the westerners had to leave Thailand the thai's would take over and run their businesses so nothing would change.

There are some on here that claim Suthep is anti westerner but thaksin is the only one that I have seen implement policies and make statements proving he is anti westerner. Not to mention an old high school friend of his stating that thaksin hates farangs.

However he may see us as a new source on income and try to milk us for every satang he can since the Bangkok source of income would no longer be there.

it's not a claim dude :

Thai deputy PM Suthep: "I don't respect 'farangs'. We do not have to surrender to them":

I do not see how not respecting translates into being actually anti farangs..

I have not seen this in context but I am going to guess it was in response to a western country or news report against the protests.

Edited by wolfmanjack
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What are the financial requirements for retirement visas? whistling.gif

Probably a lot higher since Thaksin is the one that raised it from 400k to 800k.

He is also the one that said if all the westerners had to leave Thailand the thai's would take over and run their businesses so nothing would change.

There are some on here that claim Suthep is anti westerner but thaksin is the only one that I have seen implement policies and make statements proving he is anti westerner. Not to mention an old high school friend of his stating that thaksin hates farangs.

However he may see us as a new source on income and try to milk us for every satang he can since the Bangkok source of income would no longer be there.

it's not a claim dude :

Thai deputy PM Suthep: "I don't respect 'farangs'. We do not have to surrender to them":

I do not see how not respecting translates into being actually anti farangs..

I have not seen this in context but I am going to guess it was in response to a western country or news report against the protests.

I Found the article this quote was from. It was a comment in regards to him not wanting foreigners monitoring the election. Personally I do not see how this translates into being anti farang.

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The redshirts are mainly poor working people, how do you expect them to attend rallies?

Should they just desert their jobs and farms?

9/10 people in CM support the redshirts.

99/100 in the more rural areas.

They did a pretty good job of holding Bangkok hostage for over 2 months in 2010. I guess that's when Thaksin was paying them though. Maybe he needs to break out his wallet again.

As i remember it, my sister died back in the UK and i could not attend her funeral because the airport was full of yellow shirts!!!

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I'd really like to see the reds try to set up a new capital if they think we can't live together.

Its like a divorce where your ex lives on the other side of the bedroom. You have to see them everyday, but your ex does not have access to the bathroom and kitchen frig. Interesting.

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The whole concept of 'Thainess' is an artificial social construct created in the 1930s and 40s by military dictator Marshal Plaek. It's likely to break apart at some stage just as Yugoslavia and other artificial constructs have.

could not agree more,i live in the north in Petchabun province,my wife and her family and the people up here speak issan or lao dialect,they have no love for bangkokians or southerners,like yugoslavia there is not a real 'thailand', i just hope is does not end up like the break up of yugoslavia,200,000 dead,and who knows how many injured,or look at syria,okay there may not be religous division,or ethnic hatreds on the scale of these countries[apart from the far south],but sooner or later something has to give,i could see 4 countries,issan,north thailand ,south thailand and pattani in the deep south.

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On a recent 3-day trip to Nan in the North I did not see a single plastic bag or other litter discarded anywhere. Early one morning outside the Guest House in a small Soi in Nan where I was staying, there was someone sweeping the Soi with a jacket saying "Volunteer" on it. Everything was neat and tidy.

Compare that to the situation near my condo at Cha-Am to the South. Plastic bags and rubbish in large amounts strewn everywhere beside the roads. It's a disgrace.

Maybe the North/South divide is more than just politics.

By the way, I was pleasantly surprised by the general prosperity of Nan and even (surprisingly) in the remoter areas in the vicinity like Pua and Chiang Klang. There was even a Tesco-Lotus in the latter town. Many road works in progress in the area. I don't believe the support for Phua Thai is due to the alleged vote buying to any significant extent. No doubt there is poverty in the remote areas, but even at the end of the road near the border with Laos I did not see any extreme poverty.

I do not support any political faction - I'm only reporting my observations.

just drive a little south of Cha am to kiri kan and the sois are spotless
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An interesting concept, though which provinces choose to join which of the 2 halves might surprise many people.

The division of India was along religious lines. The idea of separation from the supporters of corrupt government who also happen to be nett taxation beneficiaries makes more sense, at least for the tax payers, but you can be sure Thaksin will be against it - he knows where the money comes from.

As a reminder, most of Thailand's hydro power flows down out of the north and north east. Lose Issan and other PTP strongholds, and Bangkok and the central industrial estates dependent upon that electricity go dark. The region is also the major source of fresh water that replenishes the watersheds upon which much of the population in the central and Bangkok regions depend. Consider the implications of impeded access to cheap food, even if it was only for a few months. As much as some people wish to discount the PTP loyalist regions, they are needed for the survival and prosperity of Thailand.

Oh dear me. Hydro-power is less than 7 % of Thailand's generating capacity. But if they can't turn off the lights, they could stop their water. Like they did in the last flood.

Do you think asia has a shortage of farmers? That is the whole problem, Thailand's rice is costing far more than imports would, and the storehouses are overflowing with rice they can't sell.

Where were you last May?

On 22 May a massive power blackout hit more than 8 million people in Thailand's 14 southern provinces, including popular tourist areas such as Koh Samui and Phuket, in one of the country's biggest blackouts. The darkness also affected Thailand's three restive southern provinces, battling a smouldering Muslim insurgency, after a transmission failure on a high-voltage cable from Ratchaburi to Bang Saphan district in Prachuap Khiri Khan, the main power transmission line from the Central region to southern Prachuap Khiri Khan province, cut off supply from the central region. Key installations such as airports and hospitals switched to emergency back-up electricity supplies. The Thai PBS news team reported that lightning was involved.

Every year we get panic when a power plant shuts down and Egat has to scramble to replace it.

South Thailand now requires 2,500 megawatts of electricity supply per day while local power plants can only generate 2,000 megawatts. The other 500 megawatts are supplied from central Thailand via such power transmission lines as the high-voltage cable from Ratchaburi to Bang Saphan.

Yes, fossil fuels account for most of the energy generation, but the hydro electric power travels on the same lines that bring down the coal generated electricity from Mae Hot. You know where most of the stinky coal plants are located don't you? Smack dab in some of the poorest parts of Thailand, which by an interesting coincidence support the PTP. So please, don't be so dismissive. All it takes is one cable to get severed.

As for your dismissal of one of the largest sectors of the economy, I suggest you consider who purchases all those fertilizers made in the south. Who's buying the farm equipment imported or manufactured in the south? Those farmers aren't just planting rice.

Your arrogance on the flood speaks volumes. A large amount of the water was held up by intentionally flooding the region you ridicule. Next time, they will just let the water flow, and instead of people getting wet feet in Bangkok, they can deal with large parts of the BMA getting washed away.

Lots of nice strawman arguments to distract from your post that I replied to.

You claimed loss of HYDRO power would leave BKK industry in the dark - BS.

The concept that the rain that falls in the north might not reach the central and BKK regions - BS

The consequences of BKK not having enough food with 10,000,000 tons in storage - BS

I would be sad to see the north break away, but the loss of millions of nett tax recipients who are holding the country to ransom politically will hardly damage the remainder of Thailand's prosperity.

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From what I understand the red shirts are loyal because of the thaksanomics of populous programs which are funded by taxes. If Thailand wee to be split who in the north and northeast will be paying the bill for all the social programs?

Tax payers in the north.

Taxes from potential new businesses: casinos, gogos, deals with China, land sold to foreigners, etc

Income from BKK & the south for continued supplies of electricity, water & food from the north.

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"As his strategic options narrow, Thaksin has largely withdrawn from public view and closed channels of communication he once used to engage with outside mediators, according to sources familiar with the situation. Some analysts now wonder whether that withdrawal signals a will to ramp up violence, both to scare away middle-class supporters from PDRC rally sites and portend an armed response if Yingluck is eventually knocked from power through either judicial or extra-legal means.

"...Security analysts are now weighing Thaksin's potential ability to mount an insurgent response through the mobilization and transformation of the UDD into a fighting force if and when Yingluck is bumped from power. Civil war scenarios splitting the country between the pro-Thaksin north and northeast and the pro-Democrat south and national capital floated by certain Thai academics and perpetuated by the foreign media, however, seem overwrought in light of recent half-hearted UDD mobilizations.

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Yeah. This is craziness. If this happens, this country and any expat appeal is over.
May be some farang will leave, especially those living in BKK. However, I believe many will fight alongside the northern people - you may call them the Lanna people.

Send from my Mobile

I won't be picking up a gun for anyone.

He won't either.

By the level of excitement he shows at the prospect of a civil war and guerrilla fighting, he may have already picked up a box of Kleenex.

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It's high time the westerners started taking this current political situation seriously. It doesn't bode well for the future.

The red shirt/UDD radical wing is actually preparing for the war. Not only preparing for the war, they seem to be cherishing the opportunity to purge the elite. As I said earlier, some of those guys still live in 70's. Bloody lunatics.

Thai red shirts leader says 'It's time to get rid of the elite' As election day approaches in Thailand, supporters of prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra vow to take to the barricades in her defence...

"This is already a war, but so far it is an unarmed war," said Ko Tee. "If there is a coup, or the election doesn't happen, then it definitely becomes an armed war."

If anyone doubted the abyss into which Thailand could be heading, Ko Tee - who has been accused of orchestrating grenade attacks on anti-government marches in the thai capital - is the living proof.

"I want there to be lots of violence to put an end to all this," he said. "I'm bored by speeches. It's time to clean the country, to get rid of the elite, all of them."

http://www.telegraph...-the-elite.html

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Actually it might be a good idea. The reds can split Chiang Mei and the surrounding areas off from Thailand and set up ShinatwatraLand with Thaksin as King (or more likely Dictator).

But the kicker is, how will they finance their new country? Does anyone really think that Thaksin would dig deep (very deep) into his pockets to finance this. Highly unlikely.

So just more hot air from another brainless red.

If Bkk get separated it will die.Thaksinland will survive easy.They have rice they have the people.Bangkokians don't want to work for 5-6000bt a month and do some shity job what esaan people do now.Bkk will have to buy rice from esaan,bkk will hv to ask for manpower from esaan,It might take a while but after a few yrs a Thaksinland or North/east Thailand will boom and Bkk will die.It would be the right step to show Suthep and Bkk hiso how far they will come without esaan and maybe then they will stop their hiso behavior.

"how will they survive"see u have the same thinking as bkk hiso or Suthep.They also think esaan is to stupid for everything.Not everything is about Thaksin only.Bkk never did anything for esaan,Thaksin did.He came and said"hey I will give u education i will give u free health care, will give u bla bla,but I need to fill my pockets and pockets of friends."Then they should vote for who?Vote for Suthep who want to take everything away from them?Vote for Suthep who says they all stupid?i wonder who is brainless

My my, yet another newbie who has jumped on the red bandwagon. Makes me wonder where they are all coming from and whether or not they are the same person posting under various names.

And you wonder who is brainless ? After reading your post I believe you have left little doubt. clap2.gif

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It's high time the westerners started taking this current political situation seriously. It doesn't bode well for the future.

The red shirt/UDD radical wing is actually preparing for the war. Not only preparing for the war, they seem to be cherishing the opportunity to purge the elite. As I said earlier, some of those guys still live in 70's. Bloody lunatics.

Thai red shirts leader says 'It's time to get rid of the elite' As election day approaches in Thailand, supporters of prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra vow to take to the barricades in her defence...

"This is already a war, but so far it is an unarmed war," said Ko Tee. "If there is a coup, or the election doesn't happen, then it definitely becomes an armed war."

If anyone doubted the abyss into which Thailand could be heading, Ko Tee - who has been accused of orchestrating grenade attacks on anti-government marches in the thai capital - is the living proof.

"I want there to be lots of violence to put an end to all this," he said. "I'm bored by speeches. It's time to clean the country, to get rid of the elite, all of them."

http://www.telegraph...-the-elite.html

Who lives in the 70s? The red shirts or the behind the scenes ruling elite?

It seems to me the behind the scenes ruling elite are living in the 1500s or somewhere around there.

Each time the rural majority win an election, their voice is silenced by a military coup or another legal way to make sure their voices are not heard and their votes not counted. What did you expect? That they will be silent forever?

Thais are waking up. What you're seeing is only the start.

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It's high time the westerners started taking this current political situation seriously. It doesn't bode well for the future.

The red shirt/UDD radical wing is actually preparing for the war. Not only preparing for the war, they seem to be cherishing the opportunity to purge the elite. As I said earlier, some of those guys still live in 70's. Bloody lunatics.

Thai red shirts leader says 'It's time to get rid of the elite' As election day approaches in Thailand, supporters of prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra vow to take to the barricades in her defence...

"This is already a war, but so far it is an unarmed war," said Ko Tee. "If there is a coup, or the election doesn't happen, then it definitely becomes an armed war."

If anyone doubted the abyss into which Thailand could be heading, Ko Tee - who has been accused of orchestrating grenade attacks on anti-government marches in the thai capital - is the living proof.

"I want there to be lots of violence to put an end to all this," he said. "I'm bored by speeches. It's time to clean the country, to get rid of the elite, all of them."

http://www.telegraph...-the-elite.html

Who lives in the 70s? The red shirts or the behind the scenes ruling elite?

It seems to me the behind the scenes ruling elite are living in the 1500s or somewhere around there.

Each time the rural majority win an election, their voice is silenced by a military coup or another legal way to make sure their voices are not heard and their votes not counted. What did you expect? That they will be silent forever?

Thais are waking up. What you're seeing is only the start.

Yeah, we don't have to look far away to see what is awaiting Thailand if those lunatics get their way. Re-run of the civil war which destroyed Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam (luckily they came to their senses) etc...etc...Only deranged people could look forward to it.

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It's high time the westerners started taking this current political situation seriously. It doesn't bode well for the future.

The red shirt/UDD radical wing is actually preparing for the war. Not only preparing for the war, they seem to be cherishing the opportunity to purge the elite. As I said earlier, some of those guys still live in 70's. Bloody lunatics.

Thai red shirts leader says 'It's time to get rid of the elite' As election day approaches in Thailand, supporters of prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra vow to take to the barricades in her defence...

"This is already a war, but so far it is an unarmed war," said Ko Tee. "If there is a coup, or the election doesn't happen, then it definitely becomes an armed war."

If anyone doubted the abyss into which Thailand could be heading, Ko Tee - who has been accused of orchestrating grenade attacks on anti-government marches in the thai capital - is the living proof.

"I want there to be lots of violence to put an end to all this," he said. "I'm bored by speeches. It's time to clean the country, to get rid of the elite, all of them."

http://www.telegraph...-the-elite.html

Who lives in the 70s? The red shirts or the behind the scenes ruling elite?

It seems to me the behind the scenes ruling elite are living in the 1500s or somewhere around there.

Each time the rural majority win an election, their voice is silenced by a military coup or another legal way to make sure their voices are not heard and their votes not counted. What did you expect? That they will be silent forever?

Thais are waking up. What you're seeing is only the start.

But since they won the last election, in July-2011, the rural majority have seen their current leadership betray them.

Rice farmers are suddenly 'fake rice farmers' when they complain that they didn't get paid yet, the middle-class picked-up B100k subsidies for their new cars, it took the government 18-months to deliver the 300B/day minimum-wage, companies saw a cut in the corporate-tax rate, someone tried to charge them for using previously-free (if ill-resourced) hospitals, tablet-computers "just like mine" turned out to be cheap Chinese ones instead of flash Samsung products, corruption increased, the 2010 foot-soldiers' amnesty was hi-jacked & sunk by an attempt to extend it to soldiers & senior-politicians & all sorts of other criminals, the list goes on and on. facepalm.gif

Their own Red-elite turned out to be just as bad as the class-enemy they've been taught to hate.

They really do need to wake up, and take control of their own movement, or it will never change.

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As strange as it sounds, it might be the best solution to Thailand's yellow / red conflict. It will never end, because if yellow has the power, red will protest and if red has the power, yellow will protest.

..... you have not thought about the prospect of 'WAR' between the two new countries.

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Separate state? Okay but not here in Chiang Mai. Go set up shop anywhere else...places where people don't question greed, graft, corruption. This place is now my home and I am invested in Thai leadership. Too bad I can't vote.

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Separate state? Okay but not here in Chiang Mai. Go set up shop anywhere else...places where people don't question greed, graft, corruption. This place is now my home and I am invested in Thai leadership. Too bad I can't vote.

Agree. I don't want to see Chiang Mai to become another Bangkok either.

Better they do the Burmese thing and build a new capital in the back of beyond somewhere where all the corrupt officials can drive their luxury cars along empty sixteen lane highways, all living together and screwing each other to their heart's content.

Edited by bigbamboo
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