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BANGKOK 25 April 2019 17:06
JLT

Promenada - The Beginning of The End?

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Why are Cambodian banks able to pay such high rates?

From an economic standpoint, they probably aren't realistically able to pay such rates, at least based on the riskiness of their carry forward investments.. But, as the old saw says, risky investments require the payment of a risk premium. Otherwise, you'd be totally daft to plant your money somewhere that didn't compensate you for the risk taken. Question: Is the premium they're paying commensuarate with the risk you're putting your money into? That's the question that needs an answer to. Maybe they are moving forward from the Pol Pot era...........

............... or are they building a Promenade Mall in some rice field? smile.png

Edited by JimGant

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Mexico has surprisingly high CD rates, and that would also be a FX play, too. At 14.50 to the USD; MXP is a buy.....and tack on interest......you could also do this through large brokerage firms without having to speak Spanish or travel to Mexico.......or have a mailing address. http://www.banamex.com/en/personas/inversiones/tesoreria/inversiones_estructuradas.htm

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Why are Cambodian banks able to pay such high rates?

From an economic standpoint, they probably aren't realistically able to pay such rates, at least based on the riskiness of their carry forward investments.. But, as the old saw says, risky investments require the payment of a risk premium. Otherwise, you'd be totally daft to plant your money somewhere that didn't compensate you for the risk taken. Question: Is the premium they're paying commensuarate with the risk you're putting your money into? That's the question that needs an answer to. Maybe they are moving forward from the Pol Pot era...........

............... or are they building a Promenade Mall in some rice field? smile.png

Hate to sound like a broken record, but it's a legal ponzi scheme. They have high rates to attract hard currency (dollars, euros, etc), and then they turn around and use the money they've attracted to pay the high rates. Works like a charm until the bubble pops. Then the last ones holding the bag, so to speak, get shafted. I wouldn't put a dime into a country like Cambodia. But that's not to say a guy couldn't make some (relatively speaking) good money there before the bubble pops... Vulture capitalists like Soros likely are perching on the fence, waiting to destroy the Cambodian economy by shorting the currency (Thailand, 1997?) so they can swoop in and buy up the damage they've done for pennies on the dollar. Come to think of it, they're probably doing the same with regard to the US, especially as the value of the dollar spikes. As far as Pol Pot's victims go, guys like Soros and his ilk couldn't care less about them, dead or alive.

Edited by RikDao

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Banks are backed by the Japanese and Koreans ...so guessing all has to pop before this happens

There is a lot is infrastructure going on in Cambodia and of course the Chinese are already moving in to build new roads , apartments which didn't exist before ( Eg Bridge project in PP now) and buying up land taking advantage of the weaker laws there for acquisitions

Granted it's not for everyone but the Chinese have always have a bigger appetite for risks and that is why they are expanding this quick on the south east region

For me at 7% return on a fixed deposit instrument with no inventories is attractive as buying housing in Chiangmai

Both serve their purposes from a continued growth perspective

While Cambodia is not really on to radar of the Chinese due to no real commodities for trading , their jewels of Angkor will help them rise with the regions growth and the Chinese love for historical temples and picture taking

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Coming from a real estate, builder, developer, marketing background, I can't help but wonder to my self,,,,,,,,, Why would any seriously monied investor NOT immediately try and hire the TV Forum Brain Trust to TELL them what , where, when to invest their money. There is so much expressed knowledge herein and all sure and positive info,,,,,, no doubt at all..... It could be mistaken that all of the worlds most intelligent business people are instuctors on Thai Visa. Boy am I lucky to be living in such a neighborhood.

Make that self expressed if you please

Gonzo,

I had been thinking this for so long... but I am told that I am confused and have no idea.

Have you been following the rest of this..... these people are even more astute than you thought!

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Banks are backed by the Japanese and Koreans ...so guessing all has to pop before this happens

There is a lot is infrastructure going on in Cambodia and of course the Chinese are already moving in to build new roads , apartments which didn't exist before ( Eg Bridge project in PP now) and buying up land taking advantage of the weaker laws there for acquisitions

Granted it's not for everyone but the Chinese have always have a bigger appetite for risks and that is why they are expanding this quick on the south east region

For me at 7% return on a fixed deposit instrument with no inventories is attractive as buying housing in Chiangmai

Both serve their purposes from a continued growth perspective

While Cambodia is not really on to radar of the Chinese due to no real commodities for trading , their jewels of Angkor will help them rise with the regions growth and the Chinese love for historical temples and picture taking

Right. Risk is probably fairly low but there may be some risk. At one time (about 25 years ago) I had Tokyo Electric Power bonds that paid 10%. I held them for a few years. I never lost a night of sleep as I didn't think there was much risk. It was unlikely that Tokyo Electric Power would fail. But as the economy improved, the bonds were recalled and principal repaid. Each investor must weigh the risk.

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Banks are backed by the Japanese and Koreans ...so guessing all has to pop before this happens

There is a lot is infrastructure going on in Cambodia and of course the Chinese are already moving in to build new roads , apartments which didn't exist before ( Eg Bridge project in PP now) and buying up land taking advantage of the weaker laws there for acquisitions

Granted it's not for everyone but the Chinese have always have a bigger appetite for risks and that is why they are expanding this quick on the south east region

For me at 7% return on a fixed deposit instrument with no inventories is attractive as buying housing in Chiangmai

Both serve their purposes from a continued growth perspective

While Cambodia is not really on to radar of the Chinese due to no real commodities for trading , their jewels of Angkor will help them rise with the regions growth and the Chinese love for historical temples and picture taking

Right. Risk is probably fairly low but there may be some risk. At one time (about 25 years ago) I had Tokyo Electric Power bonds that paid 10%. I held them for a few years. I never lost a night of sleep as I didn't think there was much risk. It was unlikely that Tokyo Electric Power would fail. But as the economy improved, the bonds were recalled and principal repaid. Each investor must weigh the risk.

You're right there! No wonder at all that those bonds were recalled! But you had a nice ride...while it lasted!

Edited by Mapguy

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@JLT: I think the owner is a Dutch investor who in principle had a good idea to build a retail mall in the 2nd biggest city in Thailand. So the timing and idea was good. However I guess he didn't have much of an idea about what kind of malls Asians like, he could have gone to Singapore/Hong Kong/Shanghai/Tokyo or even Bangkok to get an idea. Not sure how long until they will sell it or do something different with the place. But I'm sure they are loosing money on this project.

Just for the record since I've seen many people incl. on TV state that CM is Thailand second largest city in Thailand, perhaps since the Rose of the North is considered the second capital by some.

Here is some of the numbers I've found

(assuming one is talking population which revelent to retail and not area etc.)

#4 http://www.livingthai.org/census-populations-for-cities-in-thailand.html

#6 by popuation according to wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_in_Thailand

#7 http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/thailand-population/major-cities-in-thailand/

#8 http://www.citypopulation.de/Thailand-Cities.html

There's lots of other stats, both newer and older, but I've never seen it listed as #2

thanks for the clarification. I didn't know that it was only somewhere no 6 in Thailand but good you highlight it.

Yoo hoo! Hike on up to Doi Suthep and look down. You'll see the makings for a LOTTTT more than 134,000. The Chiang Mai metro area has about a million.

1,640,000 according to one of the sites. I wouldn't trust any of them. I just know it is a big city and there is no others as big that, that are not bedroom communities for Bangkok.

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1Mbht is only $30k

I doubt any American in CM couldn't find 2-3M bht.

Not that you would want to bring that into Thailand at the moment.

Don't count on it. http://business.time.com/2011/06/01/nearly-half-of-americans-would-struggle-to-come-up-with-2k-in-30-days/

That article is dated June 2011; in the middle of the global financial crisis!

I was aware of the date, but most Americans don't have a lot of savings, even if it is 40-50K. Why the need for 3% down mortgages? So even people living in 400K homes, don't have a lot of cash...it was all they could do to save up 15-20 for the 3% down. Kind of disgusting, but that's reality. And the need for "the letter from the Consulate"? If that's not quid pro quo than nothing is. Many retirees live check to check and don't make the 65K per month....make no mistake about it. A newer article from mid 2013...paints even a more dire picture....76% of Americans living check to check.....http://money.cnn.com/2013/06/24/pf/emergency-savings/

Just out of curiosity what has Americans who don't have any money and can't afford to get a Visa to live in Thailand have to do with the Promenada?

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AOA says any American in CM could come up with 2-3 million THB....I would say more like 1/5.....

Edited by bangmai
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They should offer chiang mai immigration free rent there and give them a huge space, then ther would be a never ending flow of potential customers during the day. The Farangs can catch a movie and eat out and have plenty of parking and not stress out so much like they do now at the current crappy immigration location, which has no parking.

We will see how smart the owners are.

That has been talked about in jest and seriously. I agree with you.

It is not like they don't have the space. Eventually I would think immigration would come up with there own building and parking but that is a long way off. I am waiting for the Ex Pat interview to be presented. I was there but had a little bit of trouble understanding every thing said. Except that they prefer you mail in 90 day reports. Which I in all good intentions meant to do but forgot.

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They should offer chiang mai immigration free rent there and give them a huge space, then ther would be a never ending flow of potential customers during the day. The Farangs can catch a movie and eat out and have plenty of parking and not stress out so much like they do now at the current crappy immigration location, which has no parking.

We will see how smart the owners are.

That has been talked about in jest and seriously. I agree with you.

It is not like they don't have the space. Eventually I would think immigration would come up with there own building and parking but that is a long way off. I am waiting for the Ex Pat interview to be presented. I was there but had a little bit of trouble understanding every thing said. Except that they prefer you mail in 90 day reports. Which I in all good intentions meant to do but forgot.

I'm sure all the restaurants and the movie theater would love to see that. It's like a couple hundred farangs every day mon thru fri nonstop, and you know some will be spending money. There is a black hole near the banking area, perfect place to put the new offices, no one ever walks around there.
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