Patong is dead.

[surangw]

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I don't even like the game or the loud blaring music they play in there.

Better of going to Big C.

we complained about the loud music, asked to turn it down because the customers ( there were only five of us there at the time) did not like it so loud

their reply, the workers like it loud, and hence would not turn it down ( seems like they actually increased the volume after our request)

[xylophone]

Is the nightlife becoming dead too?

Bangla going strong tonight as we talk..

Plenty of people walking on Bangla, but nowhere near as many spending in the bars.

A few of the more popular ones facing Bangla are doing ok, but not the ones in the sois off of it. If you want to buy a bar ask in So Freedom as there are many struggling and a few for sale.........e.g. one bar with eight years left on the lease for 3.9 million baht.

Never been so cheap, so that tells you something!

[falkan]

Is the nightlife becoming dead too?

Bangla going strong tonight as we talk..

Plenty of people walking on Bangla, but nowhere near as many spending in the bars.

A few of the more popular ones facing Bangla are doing ok, but not the ones in the sois off of it. If you want to buy a bar ask in So Freedom as there are many struggling and a few for sale.........e.g. one bar with eight years left on the lease for 3.9 million baht.

Never been so cheap, so that tells you something!

That's good less sex tourists and apparently Jungceylon making better money this month compared to last year from a internal press release to the bigger vendors

[RickyJB]

The Russians are broke. As are the Americans, the Brits, the Chinese, and most everyone else. (Except for the Nordic nations).

unfortunately i noticed an increase in Russian tourists this xmas and new year in Kamala, which really only means more people to not spend any money

I had never seen so many people on kamala beach in that time, but after january 6th , it was like there had been a tsunami warning and the place emptied...basically the bars were mostly locals ex pats in them, not so much tourists... plenty of swedes, and danish around

[Somtamnication]

I ride a few times a week through Rawai, typically near midday. Certainly the restaurants and bars along the beachfront are deserted. Maybe there's an improvement in the evening?

Cycle through Soi Crocodile and let us know.

[chriscurtis]

The Russians are broke. As are the Americans, the Brits, the Chinese, and most everyone else. (Except for the Nordic nations).

I'm American and I still have money. In fact, I was in Belize about three months ago, and there were lots of Americans there spending money. To be fair, it is a shorter flight, but price wise comparable, and hotels and dining out is actually more expensive than Phuket.

I was in Phuket in late December, and it was noticeably more quiet. Maybe the downturn will scour some elements out.

[Rangsitreppin]

Any farang promo workers in bangla?

[Gonsalviz]

The Russians are broke. As are the Americans, the Brits, the Chinese, and most everyone else. (Except for the Nordic nations).

Norwegian Krone has lost 20+% against the Baht.

[Rangsitreppin]

The Russians are broke. As are the Americans, the Brits, the Chinese, and most everyone else. (Except for the Nordic nations).

Norwegian Krone has lost 20+% against the Baht.

Why is the baht so strong?

what is the world coming to?

[hansgruber]

The Russians are broke. As are the Americans, the Brits, the Chinese, and most everyone else. (Except for the Nordic nations).

Norwegian Krone has lost 20+% against the Baht.

Why is the baht so strong?

what is the world coming to?

Gold and Foreign cash reserves.

A Norwegian friend was discussing this yesterday about his Krone isnt going as far as last year and has to cut back eating out. It's down 24%

He showed me some graphs of the year to date currency slide.

Australian dollar is down 27% since last year against the baht.

Euro is even worse at 29%

Russian ruble has nearly halved.

We found it amazing that the USD hasn't moved really at all in the last year which is very odd.

Thailand needs to weaken their baht or it will just get worse for tourism and exports which the country relies on.

[Bogan Koori]

The Thai run places are booming for the lead up to Chinese new year. Have a look round Phuket Town, it's pumping. Patong is a very small part of what actually goes on here. Lots of people actually never go there as much as some would believe otherwise.

[Valentine]

"however the point I was making in my original post in this thread, is that the numbers decline isn't solely happening in Patong." - at least the roads will be safer for your rides.

Whoever holds the clown suit concession must be doing well as I still see multitudes of clowns driving around the island. Most days at almost anytime there are large traffic numbers & I wonder what they are all doing since tourism & business in general is down. It is even easy to get a park in the big Lotus whereas previously most of the spaces were always full most of the day.

[schlog]

The Russians are broke. As are the Americans, the Brits, the Chinese, and most everyone else. (Except for the Nordic nations).

Norwegian Krone has lost 20+% against the Baht.

Why is the baht so strong?

what is the world coming to?

Gold and Foreign cash reserves.

A Norwegian friend was discussing this yesterday about his Krone isnt going as far as last year and has to cut back eating out. It's down 24%

He showed me some graphs of the year to date currency slide.

Australian dollar is down 27% since last year against the baht.

Euro is even worse at 29%

Russian ruble has nearly halved.

We found it amazing that the USD hasn't moved really at all in the last year which is very odd.

It isn't odd if you have a look at the us master plan. All this is clearly wanted by the us! No surprise at all.

[fiddlehead]

Sorry if this is off topic, but I was just on Koh Phayam.
Checked 8 places before one had a vacant room.
Yes, it's a younger crowd, but doing a robust high season there.

Traffic sure was bad going into Patong 2 days ago from Kathu.
Was backed up to the top of the mountain.

Yet construction goes on..........and on...................and on.

[chriscurtis]

The Russians are broke. As are the Americans, the Brits, the Chinese, and most everyone else. (Except for the Nordic nations).

Norwegian Krone has lost 20+% against the Baht.

Why is the baht so strong?

what is the world coming to?

Gold and Foreign cash reserves.

A Norwegian friend was discussing this yesterday about his Krone isnt going as far as last year and has to cut back eating out. It's down 24%

He showed me some graphs of the year to date currency slide.

Australian dollar is down 27% since last year against the baht.

Euro is even worse at 29%

Russian ruble has nearly halved.

We found it amazing that the USD hasn't moved really at all in the last year which is very odd.

Thailand needs to weaken their baht or it will just get worse for tourism and exports which the country relies on.

I can't explain it, but the dollar is strong against all other currencies, EXCEPT the Baht. Maye it is pegged, I don't know.

[grumpyoldman]

According to harleyclarkey on the Chinese tourist suicide thread, Phuket is pretty much hell on earth. So according to his opinion why would anyone want to be here now?

Low season amounts of people on high season white sand beaches................terrible.

Favorite restaurants, not so crowded..................horrible.

Backed up traffic into Chalong circle, not too bad for this time of year...........bummer !

Temperate temperatures and nice sunny days...........horrendous.

Better to be in Edinburgh, Moscow or the east coast of the USA.

[AJBangkok]

The biggest thing affecting tourism is the weakness of international currencies ex the US dollar. Over the years inbound tourism to phuket has gravitated to the package tourist who generally doesn't have the capacity to absorb a major cost increase due to currency fluctuations. The December high season was ok but that's probably because the packages were bout and paid for several months ago before we saw the major currency drops. The worst is yet to come.

Another issue that has a major effect albeit a much slower impact is the attitude of the local people toward tourism. Frankly over the past few years it seems that tourists have become the enemy on phuket. Tourists are exploited for every last penny that can be extracted from them legally and then subjected to all manners of illegal scams and overcharging monopolies which the locals defend with impolite dismissive verbiage, intimidation or in some situations violence.

The majority of people who can afford international travel would not be at the bottom of the soci-economic pile so they generally can realize when they are being treated badly, exploited , overcharged or cheated. They don't like it, it spoils their holiday and they are less likely to return.

The locals think there will always be another plane load or bus load coming in tomorrow but over time there won't be. There won't be a sudden death blow to the tourism golden goose it will be a slow painful process.

Things could be turned around but I have little faith they will be. As the ligitimate tourism dollar declines, locals will increase prices in an attempt to maintain their income and when that fails the scams, cheating, overcharging and crimes against tourists will increase and hasten the downfall.

That's my Sunday rant done - have a great day!

[PlastikbinLina]

The Russians are broke. As are the Americans, the Brits, the Chinese, and most everyone else. (Except for the Nordic nations).

And the Baht remains persistently high. Is still tied to the US dollar?

[hansgruber]

The Russians are broke. As are the Americans, the Brits, the Chinese, and most everyone else. (Except for the Nordic nations).

Norwegian Krone has lost 20+% against the Baht.

Why is the baht so strong?

what is the world coming to?

Gold and Foreign cash reserves.

A Norwegian friend was discussing this yesterday about his Krone isnt going as far as last year and has to cut back eating out. It's down 24%

He showed me some graphs of the year to date currency slide.

Australian dollar is down 27% since last year against the baht.

Euro is even worse at 29%

Russian ruble has nearly halved.

We found it amazing that the USD hasn't moved really at all in the last year which is very odd.

Thailand needs to weaken their baht or it will just get worse for tourism and exports which the country relies on.

I can't explain it, but the dollar is strong against all other currencies, EXCEPT the Baht. Maye it is pegged, I don't know.

It's hard to understand why considering they are nearly 20 trillion dollars in debt and been printing money at a crazy rate yet it barely moves in world markets.

It's obviously being manipulated.

[schlog]

Check the chart of USD/VND and you will see it is nearly the same like USD/THB in the last 2 years f.e....... So ask yourself why would this be good for the US?

Correct AJ! Non of my friends who easily afford it will come to Phuket this year. They will spend their money in Vietnam, Indonesia or Malaysia....but not here anymore.

[Felt 35]

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Pag, you cycle to Khao Lak. I am truly impressed. How long does that take.

Actual riding time there and back (201 km) was 6.5 hours, at an average of 30.4 km/hour.

Do you go it alone or is it a group ride?

Alone. I sometimes ride with the Phuket Cycling group, but haven't done so for a couple of months. The 300 km I did last week was a solo effort of a ride the group did a few days previously, which I couldn't join because of another commitment.

Impressive pagallim

[AJBangkok]

The baht is still fixed to a basket of currencies of which the usd is the main component.

In addition a simplified answer would be thailand has a trade surplus so that is creating demand for the Baht. Thailand's largest import is oil and with the price of oil dropping the trade surplus has increased so countries that are buying products from thailand need to buy baht to pay for them. That buying keeps the baht propped up.

[NamKangMan]

The biggest thing affecting tourism is the weakness of international currencies ex the US dollar. Over the years inbound tourism to phuket has gravitated to the package tourist who generally doesn't have the capacity to absorb a major cost increase due to currency fluctuations. The December high season was ok but that's probably because the packages were bout and paid for several months ago before we saw the major currency drops. The worst is yet to come.

Another issue that has a major effect albeit a much slower impact is the attitude of the local people toward tourism. Frankly over the past few years it seems that tourists have become the enemy on phuket. Tourists are exploited for every last penny that can be extracted from them legally and then subjected to all manners of illegal scams and overcharging monopolies which the locals defend with impolite dismissive verbiage, intimidation or in some situations violence.

The majority of people who can afford international travel would not be at the bottom of the soci-economic pile so they generally can realize when they are being treated badly, exploited , overcharged or cheated. They don't like it, it spoils their holiday and they are less likely to return.

The locals think there will always be another plane load or bus load coming in tomorrow but over time there won't be. There won't be a sudden death blow to the tourism golden goose it will be a slow painful process.

Things could be turned around but I have little faith they will be. As the ligitimate tourism dollar declines, locals will increase prices in an attempt to maintain their income and when that fails the scams, cheating, overcharging and crimes against tourists will increase and hasten the downfall.

That's my Sunday rant done - have a great day!

I wouldn't call your post a rant, I would call it an accurate forecast for Phuket.

You mentioned exchange rates, and we will see these hit the Russian market, hard, in the near future. As mentioned, the Russians stil coming here, are the ones that bought their package holiday in 2014.

The question is, why aren't the more wealthy western tourists coming to Phuket in the numbers they were periously, and I agree, it's all the things you mention in your post.

So, when the Phuket local economy starts to wobble, and we see rent increases, food and beverage increases, businesses closing, unemployment, for sale signs everywhere, scams increasing, crime increasing etc etc - things will slide down hill quite quickly, in relation to tourism.

The western market is just about gone. In the second quarter of 2015, I expect the Russian market to contract, sharply.

Of course, those incharge here will look to blame some event, outside of their control, but they will soon have to face the fact that they have allowed Phuket to become an island that no longer offers a satisfying, and value for money holiday, even for those who can well afford to come here.

[NomadJoe]

... For sure the number of hire cars and bikes are way way up.

Word of the extortionate, mafia-esque taxi's has spread.

[cloudhopper]

I haven't been to Patong yet this season but all the beaches and high end resorts on Ko Yaos Y&N and Ko Lanta seem well occupied and the speed boats look busy. Although we recently took the dinghy up the klong at the west end of Ao Nang and were astounded by the numbers of idled speed boats and long tails rafted up.

[simon43]

My booking stats for the 28 days of February are:

Occupancy rate - 100% (full every night)

Guest nationality breakdown - 100% Chinese!

Being full is a good thing ==> revenue

Being full with a single nationality is not a good thing ==> risky because the business is reliant on a single market

Being full with only Chinese is definitely not a good thing ==> minimal guest expenditure, other than room and maybe food

Actually, by the end of this month, I will probably scream if I hear another word of Mandarin

[NamKangMan]

My booking stats for the 28 days of February are:

Occupancy rate - 100% (full every night)

Guest nationality breakdown - 100% Chinese!

Being full is a good thing ==> revenue

Being full with a single nationality is not a good thing ==> risky because the business is reliant on a single market

Being full with only Chinese is definitely not a good thing ==> minimal guest expenditure, other than room and maybe food

Actually, by the end of this month, I will probably scream if I hear another word of Mandarin

From memory, your hotel/s are near the airport.

If so, why do they chose to stay near the airport? Is it because they only stay on Phuket for one night, as a stop over?

If so, you ar the only one on Phuket who sees a baht from them.

[simon43]

If so, why do they chose to stay near the airport?

- Many flights from China arrive between 11pm - 5am

- Outbound flights to China leave 3am - 7am

- My guests fear riding in an expensive taxi to Patong/Kata in the dark

- Maybe their holiday hotel doesn't have a 24/7 check-in

- Many have booked into 4 or 5-star hotels and don't want to pay an expensive hotel rate to stay for only half a night or less

- I won't deny that I have encouraged Chinese guests, on the basis that Chinese room bookings are better than no bookings (I would like to credit the wonderful marketing policy [NOT!] of TAT to the Russian and Chinese sector, and no thanks to the abysmal performance of the local government/authorities in looking after the island/beaches)

[Bogan Koori]

Check the chart of USD/VND and you will see it is nearly the same like USD/THB in the last 2 years f.e....... So ask yourself why would this be good for the US?

Correct AJ! Non of my friends who easily afford it will come to Phuket this year. They will spend their money in Vietnam, Indonesia or Malaysia....but not here anymore.

Malaysia are you serious? Worst overpriced dump in SE Asia.

[schlog]

Check the chart of USD/VND and you will see it is nearly the same like USD/THB in the last 2 years f.e....... So ask yourself why would this be good for the US?

Correct AJ! Non of my friends who easily afford it will come to Phuket this year. They will spend their money in Vietnam, Indonesia or Malaysia....but not here anymore.

Malaysia are you serious? Worst overpriced dump in SE Asia.

Only to name a few locations in Malaysia like Langkawi, Penang or Kuala Lumpur which are no way overpriced and where i stayed also no dumps were available.

My advice to you next time in Kuala Lumpur try the Teppanyaki on the Twin Towers and stay in the Hyatt or Mandarin O. and i am sure you won't feel like staying in a overpriced dump.