US military units to stay for South China Sea patrols

[keemapoot]

It's interesting if TVF posters can dig up so much information about the deployment of the USA Navy

I know it annoys the hell out of the USA commanders they can never find the Chinese and Russians so forthcoming with this kind of information as they understand what military secrets are

Personally the USA military units can do whatever they want but they know realistically they are not in a position to checkmate the Chinese anymore

This is Asia and no matter how much allies you have here in bases, the supply chain is too stretched for the USA to keep any campaign going for long periods.

The Chinese won't fire the first volley and honestly they have enough to overwhelm the islands close by

The new strategy is to flood the enemies with people ....just watch how the EU is struggling with the current migrant crisis

On the next war path, send out the vessels loaded with Chinese citizens arriving in Seoul , Okinawa , Manila , Taiwan , Singapore

Unlike the movie saving private Ryan, you cannot gun down civilians ...be an interesting weapon and military tactic to overwhelm the ports blocking the passage of war ships with civilian vessels

They are building enough Panamax vessels to have that kind of resources

This is Asia and no matter how much allies you have here in bases, the supply chain is too stretched for the USA to keep any campaign going for long periods.

No campaign is necessary in dealing with the CCP and its military in the South China Sea or in the East Sea where CCP are campaigning against Japan.

USN Pacific Command and US Pacific Air Forces Command operate throughout this region regularly, long term, consistently. This is not World War 2 either when the USN had 2000 Pacific Command ships in six major campaigns throughout the Western Pacific south to north (two thousand). http://www.ww2pacific.com

What is likely to occur in the SCS are a series of individual instances of live fire incidents quickly occurring, instantly concluded, much examined, and surrounded by a lot of diplomatic alarm with military hollering back and forth and all around. Emergency meetings would be held and resolutions voted by individual nations, regional groupings, international bodies and organisations (yawn).

The worst case scenario for CCP would be a USN (standoff) blockade of all CCP seaports from Dalian just north of Shanghai to Shenzhen on the SCS (excluding Hong Kong). CCP knows that a USN blockade will shock its continuously downward spiraling economy and financial system to little impact on the economy of the world and the region.

Or a USN (close-in) blockade of only the CCP ports on the SCS, to include its PLA Naval forces on Hainan Island would be implemented as a more targeted and focused limited action to separate CCP from all islands natural or manmade in the Sea (always excepting Hong Kong). Draw a new line from Taiwan to Malaysia between the SCS islands and the CCP mainland/Hainan (south and west). (Reinforce Vietnam territorial waters which would be inside (west of) the blockade line.) The blockade line would protect the international shipping lanes through the Sea, separating them from CCP reach.

First thing a blockaded country (or partially blockaded one) does is to test the blockade by trying to run it. CCP doesn't have the balls for even that. (CCP submarines btw make more noise than the motor on a Thai longboat.)

In either event, the only direct route PLA Navy have to the open western Pacific is through the Miyako Strait between Japan and Taiwan, possessed by Japan. The Strait is already well covered by the US-Japan military treaty alliance but, still, Japan the past three years has reinforced their command of it with new and additional missiles, radars, submarines. (Japan doesn't need to float anything on the water to control the Strait.) Which makes the PLA Navy sitting ducks trapped in the shallow coastal waters of China.

USN and USAF supply lines include regional treaty allies, strategic partner countries as well as the wide open Pacific from Hawaii and the US west coast.

I'm trying to figure out why the US would ever blockade China when all US and world companies supply chains rely heavily on Chinese sources and US-invested supply companies. This would not only impact the US negatively, but would cause a huge disruption in supply chains and private investment and private enterprise of many global companies and countries worldwide.

That seems like a pretty stupid thing to do, and doubt it that's ever a possibility (unless Donald Duck is elected, which is highly unlikely).

[LawrenceChee]

It's interesting if TVF posters can dig up so much information about the deployment of the USA Navy

I know it annoys the hell out of the USA commanders they can never find the Chinese and Russians so forthcoming with this kind of information as they understand what military secrets are

Personally the USA military units can do whatever they want but they know realistically they are not in a position to checkmate the Chinese anymore

This is Asia and no matter how much allies you have here in bases, the supply chain is too stretched for the USA to keep any campaign going for long periods.

The Chinese won't fire the first volley and honestly they have enough to overwhelm the islands close by

The new strategy is to flood the enemies with people ....just watch how the EU is struggling with the current migrant crisis

On the next war path, send out the vessels loaded with Chinese citizens arriving in Seoul , Okinawa , Manila , Taiwan , Singapore

Unlike the movie saving private Ryan, you cannot gun down civilians ...be an interesting weapon and military tactic to overwhelm the ports blocking the passage of war ships with civilian vessels

They are building enough Panamax vessels to have that kind of resources

This is Asia and no matter how much allies you have here in bases, the supply chain is too stretched for the USA to keep any campaign going for long periods.

No campaign is necessary in dealing with the CCP and its military in the South China Sea or in the East Sea where CCP are campaigning against Japan.

USN Pacific Command and US Pacific Air Forces Command operate throughout this region regularly, long term, consistently. This is not World War 2 either when the USN had 2000 Pacific Command ships in six major campaigns throughout the Western Pacific south to north (two thousand). http://www.ww2pacific.com

What is likely to occur in the SCS are a series of individual instances of live fire incidents quickly occurring, instantly concluded, much examined, and surrounded by a lot of diplomatic alarm with military hollering back and forth and all around. Emergency meetings would be held and resolutions voted by individual nations, regional groupings, international bodies and organisations (yawn).

The worst case scenario for CCP would be a USN (standoff) blockade of all CCP seaports from Dalian just north of Shanghai to Shenzhen on the SCS (excluding Hong Kong). CCP knows that a USN blockade will shock its continuously downward spiraling economy and financial system to little impact on the economy of the world and the region.

Or a USN (close-in) blockade of only the CCP ports on the SCS, to include its PLA Naval forces on Hainan Island would be implemented as a more targeted and focused limited action to separate CCP from all islands natural or manmade in the Sea (always excepting Hong Kong). Draw a new line from Taiwan to Malaysia between the SCS islands and the CCP mainland/Hainan (south and west). (Reinforce Vietnam territorial waters which would be inside (west of) the blockade line.) The blockade line would protect the international shipping lanes through the Sea, separating them from CCP reach.

First thing a blockaded country (or partially blockaded one) does is to test the blockade by trying to run it. CCP doesn't have the balls for even that. (CCP submarines btw make more noise than the motor on a Thai longboat.)

In either event, the only direct route PLA Navy have to the open western Pacific is through the Miyako Strait between Japan and Taiwan, possessed by Japan. The Strait is already well covered by the US-Japan military treaty alliance but, still, Japan the past three years has reinforced their command of it with new and additional missiles, radars, submarines. (Japan doesn't need to float anything on the water to control the Strait.) Which makes the PLA Navy sitting ducks trapped in the shallow coastal waters of China.

USN and USAF supply lines include regional treaty allies, strategic partner countries as well as the wide open Pacific from Hawaii and the US west coast.

I'm trying to figure out why the US would ever blockade China when all US and world companies supply chains rely heavily on Chinese sources and US-invested supply companies. This would not only impact the US negatively, but would cause a huge disruption in supply chains and private investment and private enterprise of many global companies and countries worldwide.

That seems like a pretty stupid thing to do, and doubt it that's ever a possibility (unless Donald Duck is elected, which is highly unlikely).

You got this spot on and China has learnt from Singapore ....economic defence is a strong line of defence to have

China has been very open about learning the best in governance from lots of think tanks and various governments mainly from Europe and Australasia

They like this closed door method , not in admittance their policies are not good enough , it's just more appropriate for generals and Govt heads to have a closed forum where they don't feel the media is monitoring their brain waves

[keemapoot]

It's interesting if TVF posters can dig up so much information about the deployment of the USA Navy

I know it annoys the hell out of the USA commanders they can never find the Chinese and Russians so forthcoming with this kind of information as they understand what military secrets are

Personally the USA military units can do whatever they want but they know realistically they are not in a position to checkmate the Chinese anymore

This is Asia and no matter how much allies you have here in bases, the supply chain is too stretched for the USA to keep any campaign going for long periods.

The Chinese won't fire the first volley and honestly they have enough to overwhelm the islands close by

The new strategy is to flood the enemies with people ....just watch how the EU is struggling with the current migrant crisis

On the next war path, send out the vessels loaded with Chinese citizens arriving in Seoul , Okinawa , Manila , Taiwan , Singapore

Unlike the movie saving private Ryan, you cannot gun down civilians ...be an interesting weapon and military tactic to overwhelm the ports blocking the passage of war ships with civilian vessels

They are building enough Panamax vessels to have that kind of resources

This is Asia and no matter how much allies you have here in bases, the supply chain is too stretched for the USA to keep any campaign going for long periods.

No campaign is necessary in dealing with the CCP and its military in the South China Sea or in the East Sea where CCP are campaigning against Japan.

USN Pacific Command and US Pacific Air Forces Command operate throughout this region regularly, long term, consistently. This is not World War 2 either when the USN had 2000 Pacific Command ships in six major campaigns throughout the Western Pacific south to north (two thousand). http://www.ww2pacific.com

What is likely to occur in the SCS are a series of individual instances of live fire incidents quickly occurring, instantly concluded, much examined, and surrounded by a lot of diplomatic alarm with military hollering back and forth and all around. Emergency meetings would be held and resolutions voted by individual nations, regional groupings, international bodies and organisations (yawn).

The worst case scenario for CCP would be a USN (standoff) blockade of all CCP seaports from Dalian just north of Shanghai to Shenzhen on the SCS (excluding Hong Kong). CCP knows that a USN blockade will shock its continuously downward spiraling economy and financial system to little impact on the economy of the world and the region.

Or a USN (close-in) blockade of only the CCP ports on the SCS, to include its PLA Naval forces on Hainan Island would be implemented as a more targeted and focused limited action to separate CCP from all islands natural or manmade in the Sea (always excepting Hong Kong). Draw a new line from Taiwan to Malaysia between the SCS islands and the CCP mainland/Hainan (south and west). (Reinforce Vietnam territorial waters which would be inside (west of) the blockade line.) The blockade line would protect the international shipping lanes through the Sea, separating them from CCP reach.

First thing a blockaded country (or partially blockaded one) does is to test the blockade by trying to run it. CCP doesn't have the balls for even that. (CCP submarines btw make more noise than the motor on a Thai longboat.)

In either event, the only direct route PLA Navy have to the open western Pacific is through the Miyako Strait between Japan and Taiwan, possessed by Japan. The Strait is already well covered by the US-Japan military treaty alliance but, still, Japan the past three years has reinforced their command of it with new and additional missiles, radars, submarines. (Japan doesn't need to float anything on the water to control the Strait.) Which makes the PLA Navy sitting ducks trapped in the shallow coastal waters of China.

USN and USAF supply lines include regional treaty allies, strategic partner countries as well as the wide open Pacific from Hawaii and the US west coast.

I'm trying to figure out why the US would ever blockade China when all US and world companies supply chains rely heavily on Chinese sources and US-invested supply companies. This would not only impact the US negatively, but would cause a huge disruption in supply chains and private investment and private enterprise of many global companies and countries worldwide.

That seems like a pretty stupid thing to do, and doubt it that's ever a possibility (unless Donald Duck is elected, which is highly unlikely).

You got this spot on and China has learnt from Singapore ....economic defence is a strong line of defence to have

China has been very open about learning the best in governance from lots of think tanks and various governments mainly from Europe and Australasia

They like this closed door method , not in admittance their policies are not good enough , it's just more appropriate for generals and Govt heads to have a closed forum where they don't feel the media is monitoring their brain waves

The basic economic truth that exists today, admittedly partially resulting from China's study of the Singapore model, is the absolute interdependent nature of world trade with China as the workshop of the US and the world. Much of this result was US & global firms simply looking for a cheaper and more sustainable production base.

Because of this interdependence, China cannot be blockaded in any reasonable scenario that seeks to preserve world economic order.

As a result, these South China Sea machinations will continue, and the dance will continue with a series of small moves, counter-moves, wins, losses, and redrawing of negotiation terms and definitions of maritime law and order.

There will be no world war III. There will be no blockade. There will be no great conflict between the US and China.

It's bad for business.

[boomerangutang]

Why talk of blockading? That's a non-starter.

The basic issue is China, because of its relatively recent economic and military might, wants to extend its range. It wants to covet and control every-more resources. that's why it's expanding biz interests in Africa and S.America, Australia, and anywhere else it can. I don't put it down for extending its economic interests. My problem is with its claiming properties that belong to others. Tibet was mid-last-century, so it's considered a done-deal, by Chinese mainly. Taiwan is a face-off lasting as long as the Israeli-Palestinian face-off and similarly destined to go on for decades/centuries in the future.

In the S.China Sea, the Chinese saw an opportunity to commandeer little rock islands which no one else seemed to covet. Just because Philippines didn't plant flags on the rocks off their shore, doesn't mean they didn't know about them, nor considered them their territory. The rocks are far closer to the Phil coast than to Hainan.

Once China gets its sights on something like that, it won't turn away. Rule of law (whether UN or Int'l or maritime or whatever) won't get them to leave. The only thing that would get the Chinese to abandon their island-grab is military might. That's why I advise action soon, rather than later. The longer it's put off, the greater the conflict will be. Each week the rest of the world tarries is another week the Chinese can dredge sand to extend runways, build ports, bring in troops, pour concrete for armnaments, and other such build-ups. I am the only person on the planet mentioning the possibility of a designation for ALL the contested islands: International Marine Preserve.

[boomerangutang]

Americans do it. British do it. Why is it such an alien concept for Chinese (and Asians in general) to designate any large sections of sea as a MARINE PRESERVE. ?

If Chinese want to show the world they have some leanings toward environmental husbandry, that would be one way to go about it.

Otherwise, if it's business-as-usual, the world views China as this gargantuan conglomerate of conglomerates, ceaselessly tearing out natural habitat in order to build concrete monolithic cities from horizon to horizon.

[LawrenceChee]

Americans do it. British do it. Why is it such an alien concept for Chinese (and Asians in general) to designate any large sections of sea as a MARINE PRESERVE. ?

If Chinese want to show the world they have some leanings toward environmental husbandry, that would be one way to go about it.

Otherwise, if it's business-as-usual, the world views China as this gargantuan conglomerate of conglomerates, ceaselessly tearing out natural habitat in order to build concrete monolithic cities from horizon to horizon.

They will get to this ...in the meantime , they are shutting polluting factories , and also building the nuclear and solar power plants with explorations of wind technology in Mongolia deserts and trying or shut the coal factories down slowly ;

This year they have introduced an environmental KPI for officials ...it sounds brutal but basically if you fail the KPI you get no funds the following year for projects

This they learned from the Nordic countries which are the environmental leaders in this field

Honestly they have done more in the last quarter of a century ...give them some credit when it's due instead of bashing them.

There are huge designated national Parks ...have a look at the link below and it has some stunning stuff

I have been an advocate on this forum for a balanced opinion on China and environmental protection and I have not stopped lobbying this to the Govt and I will say in the last ten years there is a renewed energy in this area

I can assure those who have never been there to make an Air Asia trip.

Behind the urban buzz, there are stunning places I have been personally and hosted people who cannot believe this is China. The friendliness of the folks are amazing to interact with and they are as open as anyone you met in any developed country.

HAVE A LOOK AT THIS LINK :-

https://www.facebook.com/idiscoverchina/

[Publicus]

This is Asia and no matter how much allies you have here in bases, the supply chain is too stretched for the USA to keep any campaign going for long periods.

No campaign is necessary in dealing with the CCP and its military in the South China Sea or in the East Sea where CCP are campaigning against Japan.

USN Pacific Command and US Pacific Air Forces Command operate throughout this region regularly, long term, consistently. This is not World War 2 either when the USN had 2000 Pacific Command ships in six major campaigns throughout the Western Pacific south to north (two thousand). http://www.ww2pacific.com

What is likely to occur in the SCS are a series of individual instances of live fire incidents quickly occurring, instantly concluded, much examined, and surrounded by a lot of diplomatic alarm with military hollering back and forth and all around. Emergency meetings would be held and resolutions voted by individual nations, regional groupings, international bodies and organisations (yawn).

The worst case scenario for CCP would be a USN (standoff) blockade of all CCP seaports from Dalian just north of Shanghai to Shenzhen on the SCS (excluding Hong Kong). CCP knows that a USN blockade will shock its continuously downward spiraling economy and financial system to little impact on the economy of the world and the region.

Or a USN (close-in) blockade of only the CCP ports on the SCS, to include its PLA Naval forces on Hainan Island would be implemented as a more targeted and focused limited action to separate CCP from all islands natural or manmade in the Sea (always excepting Hong Kong). Draw a new line from Taiwan to Malaysia between the SCS islands and the CCP mainland/Hainan (south and west). (Reinforce Vietnam territorial waters which would be inside (west of) the blockade line.) The blockade line would protect the international shipping lanes through the Sea, separating them from CCP reach.

First thing a blockaded country (or partially blockaded one) does is to test the blockade by trying to run it. CCP doesn't have the balls for even that. (CCP submarines btw make more noise than the motor on a Thai longboat.)

In either event, the only direct route PLA Navy have to the open western Pacific is through the Miyako Strait between Japan and Taiwan, possessed by Japan. The Strait is already well covered by the US-Japan military treaty alliance but, still, Japan the past three years has reinforced their command of it with new and additional missiles, radars, submarines. (Japan doesn't need to float anything on the water to control the Strait.) Which makes the PLA Navy sitting ducks trapped in the shallow coastal waters of China.

USN and USAF supply lines include regional treaty allies, strategic partner countries as well as the wide open Pacific from Hawaii and the US west coast.

I'm trying to figure out why the US would ever blockade China when all US and world companies supply chains rely heavily on Chinese sources and US-invested supply companies. This would not only impact the US negatively, but would cause a huge disruption in supply chains and private investment and private enterprise of many global companies and countries worldwide.

That seems like a pretty stupid thing to do, and doubt it that's ever a possibility (unless Donald Duck is elected, which is highly unlikely).

You got this spot on and China has learnt from Singapore ....economic defence is a strong line of defence to have

China has been very open about learning the best in governance from lots of think tanks and various governments mainly from Europe and Australasia

They like this closed door method , not in admittance their policies are not good enough , it's just more appropriate for generals and Govt heads to have a closed forum where they don't feel the media is monitoring their brain waves

The basic economic truth that exists today, admittedly partially resulting from China's study of the Singapore model, is the absolute interdependent nature of world trade with China as the workshop of the US and the world. Much of this result was US & global firms simply looking for a cheaper and more sustainable production base.

Because of this interdependence, China cannot be blockaded in any reasonable scenario that seeks to preserve world economic order.

As a result, these South China Sea machinations will continue, and the dance will continue with a series of small moves, counter-moves, wins, losses, and redrawing of negotiation terms and definitions of maritime law and order.

There will be no world war III. There will be no blockade. There will be no great conflict between the US and China.

It's bad for business.

Two replies here from your post but first a reply to the CCP comrade Mr. Chee (whom you nestled quoted)

The poster Lawrence Chee said, which is astounding by any standard.....

The new strategy is to flood the enemies with people ....just watch how the EU is struggling with the current migrant crisis

On the next war path, send out the vessels loaded with Chinese citizens arriving in Seoul , Okinawa , Manila , Taiwan , Singapore

Unlike the movie saving private Ryan, you cannot gun down civilians ...be an interesting weapon and military tactic to overwhelm the ports blocking the passage of war ships with civilian vessels

There is no stomach to fight civilians and you can surround them or do what you wish ...there will be no fleet commander of any country that will ram a boat filed with civilians into the waters

Once they arrived at your ports ....you have the real Hollywood movie zombie scenario ....what do you do with hundreds of thousands flooding your shores within days ?

Using civilians as a weapon in a conflict or for any reason puts you Mr. Chee in the same league as ISIS or al Qaeda and all the rest of 'em.

Exploiting women and children who are assigned by the CCP as refugees willing or unwilling for the purpose of supporting military aggression is reprehensible and repugnant. Yet this is the openly bold and shameless statement you make.

Let's hope CCP whom you say you advise does not have this as a policy option to be employed in certain circumstances. Given the CCP record however -- and one thinks Tiananmen in 1989 -- perhaps all of us could expect the worst, i.e., exactly as you present so brazenly and coldly whilst you also consider yourself as being clever and astute.

To the poster keemapoot, a blockade of military assets to include hardware and personnel would hardly disrupt the global economy or supply chain. It would be in the South China Sea only, it would protect and guarantee international passage in the shipping and travel lanes of the Sea, and it would be restricted to military matters only.

It would be like a no-fly zone as had been in force in Iraq but on the high seas which the SCS is.

The last US Navy and general military blockade I recall was in 1962 during the Cuban Missile Crisis when President Kennedy ordered what he called a "Quarantine" of Cuba to stop Soviet Union cargo ships already en route to Cuba from Russia loaded with missiles capable of striking three-quarters of the land territory of the United States.

And no, the Soviet Union fascist dictatorship was not allowed or permitted to place missiles in Cuba because they were the bad guys. There are good guys in the world and there are bad guys. I'd mentioned it because a lot of people miss the fact, claiming that if the US can put missiles on, say, Guam, then CCP could if it decided to place missiles in, say, Cuba. No. No it cannot. Period.

[Publicus]

Americans do it. British do it. Why is it such an alien concept for Chinese (and Asians in general) to designate any large sections of sea as a MARINE PRESERVE. ?

If Chinese want to show the world they have some leanings toward environmental husbandry, that would be one way to go about it.

Otherwise, if it's business-as-usual, the world views China as this gargantuan conglomerate of conglomerates, ceaselessly tearing out natural habitat in order to build concrete monolithic cities from horizon to horizon.

They will get to this ...in the meantime , they are shutting polluting factories , and also building the nuclear and solar power plants with explorations of wind technology in Mongolia deserts and trying or shut the coal factories down slowly ;

This year they have introduced an environmental KPI for officials ...it sounds brutal but basically if you fail the KPI you get no funds the following year for projects

This they learned from the Nordic countries which are the environmental leaders in this field

Honestly they have done more in the last quarter of a century ...give them some credit when it's due instead of bashing them.

There are huge designated national Parks ...have a look at the link below and it has some stunning stuff

I have been an advocate on this forum for a balanced opinion on China and environmental protection and I have not stopped lobbying this to the Govt and I will say in the last ten years there is a renewed energy in this area

I can assure those who have never been there to make an Air Asia trip.

Behind the urban buzz, there are stunning places I have been personally and hosted people who cannot believe this is China. The friendliness of the folks are amazing to interact with and they are as open as anyone you met in any developed country.

HAVE A LOOK AT THIS LINK :-

https://www.facebook.com/idiscoverchina/

The link to Facebook is to a website that is strictly prohibited in the CCP China by the CCP. The people of the People's Republic have no idea of what you are posting.

It is one of hundreds of banned websites in the CCP that the population cannot access. Only a tiny fraction of CCP sheeple people get vpn which is also prohibited and even among those only a small fraction go to Facebook because it is dangerous to do so even with a vpn.

The appeal to our freedoms to learn what the CCP people cannot access is contradictory to say the least.

Here are only the biggest blocks so far (most recently updated December 29: added in Gmail’s IMAP, SMAP, and POP servers):

Social media

Twitter, Facebook, Google+, Google Hangouts, Google Blogspot, WordPress.com, Line, KakaoTalk, TalkBox, selected Tumblr sites, FC2, Soundcloud, Hootsuite, Adultfriendfinder, Ustream, Twitpic, Instagram

Newspapers and media

New York Times, New York Times Chinese, Bloomberg, Bloomberg Businessweek, BBC Chinese, Chosun Chinese, WSJ, WSJ Chinese, Flipboard (international version only), Google News, YouTube, Vimeo, Dailymotion, LiveLeak, Break, Crackle, selected international Wikipedia pages, selected Chinese Wikipedia pages, Wikileaks

Search engines

Google, DuckDuckGo, Baidu Japan, Baidu Brazil, Yahoo Hong Kong, Yahoo Taiwan

Work and productivity

Microsoft OneDrive, Dropbox, Slideshare, iStockPhoto, Google Drive, Google Docs, Gmail (inc Gmail’s IMAP, SMAP, and POP servers), Google Translate, Google Calendar, Google Groups, Google Keep

Online tools

Flickr, Google Play, Google Picasa, Feedburner, Twitter URL shortener, Google URL shortener, Bit.ly, Archive.org, Pastebin, Change.org, 4Shared, The Pirate Bay, OpenVPN

Redux: gagging Google

Yes, a lot of those are Google services. Let’s recap the Google blocklist in full:

Google search, Gmail, Google Drive, Google Docs, Google Play, Google Translate, Google Calendar, Google Picasa, Google Groups, Google Keep, Google Voice, Google Wallet, YouTube, Google Earth, Google Earth, Google Chrome homepage, Google Code, Google Blogspot, Google Feedburner

https://en.greatfire.org

https://www.techinasia.com/list-of-websites-blocked-in-china-by-great-firewall

CCP people have no idea of what is occurring in the SCS in respect of what the CCP are actually doing and what the response is by individual nations of the region, by Asean, by the USA and allies, strategic partners, supporting nations or internationally at the Hague in the International Court of Arbitration -- not anything we know.

This is no way to run a railroad y'know. Or do youse guyz know this...

[Publicus]

Maybe I'm getting crabbier as I get older, but dynamic action is needed by the US. Philippines is a friend of the US, but this build-up by China is bigger than any of the individual players.

The best case scenario would be a declaration of Marine Reserve status for the entire SC sea. Since Asians are incapable of those types of thoughts (everything for them is about amassing money and possessions), then the next best thing would be a preemptive strike (taking out all weapons, docks and troop installations) by the world's most advanced military. All interested countries, except China, would be behind the US doing so. It might bring on a military response by China, but it would be short lived. The longer a military confrontation is put off, the bigger it will be when it eventually happens. It's like an infection. Better to lance it now, then let it fester. The next US prez will undoubtedly have to deal with the SCS issue - and hopefully dynamically. Anything China's leaders say is aimed at delaying the issue. The longer it's delayed, the longer China can pour concrete, place weapons on the commandeered rocks (fast being covered in dredged-up sand), and get their navy beefed up. Each week that goes by, is another week China can shift troops down to newly built facilities/airports there - to man weapons and bunkers.

You are pretty accurate in these descriptions ....hence the need by the Chinese to bunker down as they cannot guarantee there will be no escalated tension with the idiot Trump still looking like he is going to the poll card

China have learnt , looking at USA politics that the current pattern of military tactics from the USA military which is to carpet bomb everything and hope the other party is going to submit

Won't work with China or Russia but then again who would want a blanket bombing by a trigger irresponsible country and hence they are bunkering down like the Japanese did in the pacific wars and knowing the USA have no political will for any ground war and those islands give them first strike as much as the USA has done by basing themselves in Korea , Japan , Philippines and Guam ...these countries will be pawns in an unwanted war but it won't be started by the Chinese ....history favours the trigger happy yanks rather than the money conscious China

It's a good deterrent for China in having these islands to build first strike capabilities against USA that could potentially pick a nut case as a president

China has a nutcase party ruling it, the Chinese Communist Party.

They are a dynasty of emperors in business suits, nothing more.

As with all new Chinese dynasties, the CCP is a young dynasty and it is a nervous dynasty.

Hence the belligerence and bellicosity against democracies in the region, Japan especially, and then of course, typically and predictably, against the United States.

Japan PM Shinzo Abe speaks of the "Democracy Diamond" of the larger region. The democracy diamond is from Japan to Hawaii, back to Australia and on to India, back across most of Asean to Taiwan, up to South Korea back to Japan.

CCP can never become a regional dynasty of power or influence in the face of this kind of a steadfast regional alliance of democracies and free market economies that focus on human rights among many other civilisational positives.

The Democracy Diamond is an effective one. This is in contrast to the democracies of Europe between the two great wars of the 20th century that were ineffective and bungling in response to the rise of Hitler and Mussolini. Or in any previous situation or region of the world where dictatorship has sought to prevail by destroying democracy, market economics, private property and private ownership personal and institutional and the like.

This is the fight that continues from a hundred years ago...and further back in world history, to include a necessary war of independence in the United States and an overdue revolution in France, both of which impacted the world then and continue to impact the world presently and going forward.

Zhou Enlai had his head up where the sun don't shine when he responded to the question of what he thought of the French Revolution, "It's too soon to tell." Wong again. It's too late for China and the CCP especially, who are the not so swift boyz over there still living their authoritarian and corrupt dynasties.

[tonbridgebrit]

It's interesting if TVF posters can dig up so much information about the deployment of the USA Navy

I know it annoys the hell out of the USA commanders they can never find the Chinese and Russians so forthcoming with this kind of information as they understand what military secrets are

Personally the USA military units can do whatever they want but they know realistically they are not in a position to checkmate the Chinese anymore

This is Asia and no matter how much allies you have here in bases, the supply chain is too stretched for the USA to keep any campaign going for long periods.

The Chinese won't fire the first volley and honestly they have enough to overwhelm the islands close by

The new strategy is to flood the enemies with people ....just watch how the EU is struggling with the current migrant crisis

On the next war path, send out the vessels loaded with Chinese citizens arriving in Seoul , Okinawa , Manila , Taiwan , Singapore

Unlike the movie saving private Ryan, you cannot gun down civilians ...be an interesting weapon and military tactic to overwhelm the ports blocking the passage of war ships with civilian vessels

They are building enough Panamax vessels to have that kind of resources

This is Asia and no matter how much allies you have here in bases, the supply chain is too stretched for the USA to keep any campaign going for long periods.

No campaign is necessary in dealing with the CCP and its military in the South China Sea or in the East Sea where CCP are campaigning against Japan.

USN Pacific Command and US Pacific Air Forces Command operate throughout this region regularly, long term, consistently. This is not World War 2 either when the USN had 2000 Pacific Command ships in six major campaigns throughout the Western Pacific south to north (two thousand). http://www.ww2pacific.com

What is likely to occur in the SCS are a series of individual instances of live fire incidents quickly occurring, instantly concluded, much examined, and surrounded by a lot of diplomatic alarm with military hollering back and forth and all around. Emergency meetings would be held and resolutions voted by individual nations, regional groupings, international bodies and organisations (yawn).

The worst case scenario for CCP would be a USN (standoff) blockade of all CCP seaports from Dalian just north of Shanghai to Shenzhen on the SCS (excluding Hong Kong). CCP knows that a USN blockade will shock its continuously downward spiraling economy and financial system to little impact on the economy of the world and the region.

Or a USN (close-in) blockade of only the CCP ports on the SCS, to include its PLA Naval forces on Hainan Island would be implemented as a more targeted and focused limited action to separate CCP from all islands natural or manmade in the Sea (always excepting Hong Kong). Draw a new line from Taiwan to Malaysia between the SCS islands and the CCP mainland/Hainan (south and west). (Reinforce Vietnam territorial waters which would be inside (west of) the blockade line.) The blockade line would protect the international shipping lanes through the Sea, separating them from CCP reach.

First thing a blockaded country (or partially blockaded one) does is to test the blockade by trying to run it. CCP doesn't have the balls for even that. (CCP submarines btw make more noise than the motor on a Thai longboat.)

In either event, the only direct route PLA Navy have to the open western Pacific is through the Miyako Strait between Japan and Taiwan, possessed by Japan. The Strait is already well covered by the US-Japan military treaty alliance but, still, Japan the past three years has reinforced their command of it with new and additional missiles, radars, submarines. (Japan doesn't need to float anything on the water to control the Strait.) Which makes the PLA Navy sitting ducks trapped in the shallow coastal waters of China.

USN and USAF supply lines include regional treaty allies, strategic partner countries as well as the wide open Pacific from Hawaii and the US west coast.

I'm trying to figure out why the US would ever blockade China when all US and world companies supply chains rely heavily on Chinese sources and US-invested supply companies. This would not only impact the US negatively, but would cause a huge disruption in supply chains and private investment and private enterprise of many global companies and countries worldwide.

That seems like a pretty stupid thing to do, and doubt it that's ever a possibility (unless Donald Duck is elected, which is highly unlikely).

And keemapoot, you're right !

Look, what's happening is this. The Washington government spends billions every year building military hardware. Those aircraft carriers that are built, there needs to be a justification for them. People like Publicus either don't know the reality, or more likely, they do. Publicus is here, trotting out stuff that paints an absurd picture that China is a threat to the USA.

China is NOT a threat. And IF Washington was to ever think that China was a threat, well, Washington would simply massively reduce the amount of goods America imports from China. So, Washington knows that China is not a threat, but it still spends billions of tax-payers money on it's military, and it has to justify the military. All this talk of making sure that the sea lanes are open is absurd and ridiculous. Publicus IS being ridiculous. Those sea-lanes are the very routes that China is using to export it's goods to America and the EU.

Oh, so America is using it's navy to gaurantee that Chinese manufactured goods can get to America and Europe ??? America is scared that China might interrupt or partially block those sea-lanes ? No, it's ridiculous. China wants those sea-lanes OPEN, that way, China can export it's goods to America and Europe.

[keemapoot]

You got this spot on and China has learnt from Singapore ....economic defence is a strong line of defence to have

China has been very open about learning the best in governance from lots of think tanks and various governments mainly from Europe and Australasia

They like this closed door method , not in admittance their policies are not good enough , it's just more appropriate for generals and Govt heads to have a closed forum where they don't feel the media is monitoring their brain waves

The basic economic truth that exists today, admittedly partially resulting from China's study of the Singapore model, is the absolute interdependent nature of world trade with China as the workshop of the US and the world. Much of this result was US & global firms simply looking for a cheaper and more sustainable production base.

Because of this interdependence, China cannot be blockaded in any reasonable scenario that seeks to preserve world economic order.

As a result, these South China Sea machinations will continue, and the dance will continue with a series of small moves, counter-moves, wins, losses, and redrawing of negotiation terms and definitions of maritime law and order.

There will be no world war III. There will be no blockade. There will be no great conflict between the US and China.

It's bad for business.

Two replies here from your post but first a reply to the CCP comrade Mr. Chee (whom you nestled quoted)

The poster Lawrence Chee said, which is astounding by any standard.....

The new strategy is to flood the enemies with people ....just watch how the EU is struggling with the current migrant crisis

On the next war path, send out the vessels loaded with Chinese citizens arriving in Seoul , Okinawa , Manila , Taiwan , Singapore

Unlike the movie saving private Ryan, you cannot gun down civilians ...be an interesting weapon and military tactic to overwhelm the ports blocking the passage of war ships with civilian vessels

There is no stomach to fight civilians and you can surround them or do what you wish ...there will be no fleet commander of any country that will ram a boat filed with civilians into the waters

Once they arrived at your ports ....you have the real Hollywood movie zombie scenario ....what do you do with hundreds of thousands flooding your shores within days ?

Using civilians as a weapon in a conflict or for any reason puts you Mr. Chee in the same league as ISIS or al Qaeda and all the rest of 'em.

Exploiting women and children who are assigned by the CCP as refugees willing or unwilling for the purpose of supporting military aggression is reprehensible and repugnant. Yet this is the openly bold and shameless statement you make.

Let's hope CCP whom you say you advise does not have this as a policy option to be employed in certain circumstances. Given the CCP record however -- and one thinks Tiananmen in 1989 -- perhaps all of us could expect the worst, i.e., exactly as you present so brazenly and coldly whilst you also consider yourself as being clever and astute.

To the poster keemapoot, a blockade of military assets to include hardware and personnel would hardly disrupt the global economy or supply chain. It would be in the South China Sea only, it would protect and guarantee international passage in the shipping and travel lanes of the Sea, and it would be restricted to military matters only.

It would be like a no-fly zone as had been in force in Iraq but on the high seas which the SCS is.

The last US Navy and general military blockade I recall was in 1962 during the Cuban Missile Crisis when President Kennedy ordered what he called a "Quarantine" of Cuba to stop Soviet Union cargo ships already en route to Cuba from Russia loaded with missiles capable of striking three-quarters of the land territory of the United States.

And no, the Soviet Union fascist dictatorship was not allowed or permitted to place missiles in Cuba because they were the bad guys. There are good guys in the world and there are bad guys. I'd mentioned it because a lot of people miss the fact, claiming that if the US can put missiles on, say, Guam, then CCP could if it decided to place missiles in, say, Cuba. No. No it cannot. Period.

The way I read what Lawrence Chee wrote is that the Chinese strategy is not to use civilians or refugees as a weapon in floating barges or as sitting ducks in newly reclaimed islands in the sea, but rather, that China views its overseas Chinese diaspora as a strategic asset in preventing military conflict, same as there are so many Chinese-Americans, or how overseas Chinese diaspora are the important and large minority groups in places such as Thailand, Indonesia, etc. now. So that China will continue to encourage civilian merchant and commercial activity that acts as a deterrent to conflict. Maybe I read that wrong, and if Lawrence is advocating rubber rafts filled with duped peasants floating in the sea as sitting duck targets for US naval aviators then I agree with you.

Regarding the blockade, perhaps I read your post too expansively, but you specifically said, quoting: "blockade of all CCP seaports from Dalian just north of Shanghai to Shenzhen on the SCS (excluding Hong Kong)" and that draconian irresponsible proposal is what I was referring to. Perhaps that was an error because you then went on to mention specific blockade tactics in SCS, excluding shipping zones. However, if you are targeting "CCP" ports and/or vessels'' and thinking those are not used for commercial purposes, many are, and I think you need to exclude any that are to have a valid point, and specifically state only military ports used for military purposes.

In any event, blockades are silly in today's age between the two most powerful economies and two nuclear powers, and just lead to escalation. And, anyway, such a huge police effort would strain US resources, disrupt trade, have huge dollar costs, as well as create a sense of false protectorate status and assumed obligation among those Asia Pacific nations with claims. There are better ways to get cozy with Vietnam, such as enact the TPP!

[LawrenceChee]

Comrade Publicius - Not that I am sure you will ever pass the Chinese sovereign test element of it seeing you will probably scribble - USA is the best in every question

Use a VPN - The Chinese youth and professionals of today are seeking answers in a balanced way and a VPN is as common as one expects a tissue box at Big C foodcourt. they even use Amazon which I know is a surprise only for you

The old age idea that all Chinese are blocked from everything is ridiculous ...how do you think they get all the foreign goods in ?

There are crazy publications for the sake of a small population group and most don't read it or talk about it unless you are a fanatic which you can probably relate to seeing your postings and answers at times and all the crazy extreme nut cases you describe in China ....

I showed your postings at some meetings and Govt people have a great laugh about your comments as they are as rare as pandas in China

Most professionals read a variety of newspaper including NYT / FT / WSJ / SCMP / AGE for a balanced viewpoint

Believe it or not a meeting these days is not like those you see in North Korea Kim ....

I wont describe it as a varsity debate but the flow of ideas is much more receptive than before ....the Govt officials are trying to engage a communist ideology of providing for everyone, stay capitalistic and spur growth, listen to feedback and react to social media and slowly reform to populace governance ...

That's a tough calling these days to be in the Govt body and they are willing to listen to all advice as long as it is given respectfully ; there are USA business man on these panels too and they are a good representation of the country

Their ideas are often well thought through and with sensitivity to the local culture ; no shouting and no brash calls of "you are fired"

[keemapoot]

Comrade Publicius - Not that I am sure you will ever pass the Chinese sovereign test element of it seeing you will probably scribble - USA is the best in every question

Use a VPN - The Chinese youth and professionals of today are seeking answers in a balanced way and a VPN is as common as one expects a tissue box at Big C foodcourt. they even use Amazon which I know is a surprise only for you

The old age idea that all Chinese are blocked from everything is ridiculous ...how do you think they get all the foreign goods in ?

There are crazy publications for the sake of a small population group and most don't read it or talk about it unless you are a fanatic which you can probably relate to seeing your postings and answers at times and all the crazy extreme nut cases you describe in China ....

I showed your postings at some meetings and Govt people have a great laugh about your comments as they are as rare as pandas in China

Most professionals read a variety of newspaper including NYT / FT / WSJ / SCMP / AGE for a balanced viewpoint

Believe it or not a meeting these days is not like those you see in North Korea Kim ....

I wont describe it as a varsity debate but the flow of ideas is much more receptive than before ....the Govt officials are trying to engage a communist ideology of providing for everyone, stay capitalistic and spur growth, listen to feedback and react to social media and slowly reform to populace governance ...

That's a tough calling these days to be in the Govt body and they are willing to listen to all advice as long as it is given respectfully ; there are USA business man on these panels too and they are a good representation of the country

Their ideas are often well thought through and with sensitivity to the local culture ; no shouting and no brash calls of "you are fired"

Lawrence, I have to chuckle at some of Publicus' posts. I have spent 30 years doing business in China, have spent extensive time in most important cities and have deep friendships and business relations with many in important government and non government positions.

I have a friend who has served on the People's PCC special committee for Hong Kong and Overseas Chinese and he has told me similar things as you are saying.

I would suspect that most people who post on China don't have the advantage of knowing these things from an insider's perspective, so nice to have you set things straight.

[LawrenceChee]

I really think you should run through the no fly zone in China with the military commanders

They will send you for a medical mate ...that's how ridiculous the idea is

[tonbridgebrit]

Okay everybody, let's just stop this nonsense, and get back to the REAL world. Anybody who knows about America will know that WalMart is what America is built on. WalMart IS America, we all know that, even people who are NOT from America (people like myself) know this. Now then, the sea lanes around China (including those in the South China Sea) must be kept open, why ?

So that the flow of Chinese goods to America (WalMart) and Europe will continue. Period. It's in everybody's interest. Why are America and China fighting against each other, to acheive the SAME goal ?

[LawrenceChee]

There are no lifeboats of Chinese coming your way as described by Comrade P

The flood of migrants has been happening for centuries , my ancestors included and we have all made our mark everywhere influencing local politics and how the world views China

Take a Caribbean cruise out of Fort Lauderdale and at all the stops in Cozumel , St Vincent's etc talk to the crew ....most will tell you they are heading for the Chinese restaurants for some fried rice and free wifi ....that's how far out the migrant has already moved for decades , influencing culture and culinary and interaction.

I know it rankles Comrade P a little there are Chinatowns everywhere but not USA towns globally

[LawrenceChee]

walmart.jpg

Okay everybody, let's just stop this nonsense, and get back to the REAL world. Anybody who knows about America will know that WalMart is what America is built on. WalMart IS America, we all know that, even people who are NOT from America (people like myself) know this. Now then, the sea lanes around China (including those in the South China Sea) must be kept open, why ?

So that the flow of Chinese goods to America (WalMart) and Europe will continue. Period. It's in everybody's interest. Why are America and China fighting against each other, to acheive the SAME goal ?

Agree with you , hence China will never initiate a war ...protect itself from trigger happy nations yes , start a war I can give you a definitive NO.

I can assure you behind all the politicking and grand media court cases, the behind the scene Govt negotiations for trade concessions for those rocks is happening.

It's the Asian way , let the Politicians have their day because they are needed, but the end goal is the same ; what's the trade off and make sure trade does not stop

Chinese understand this and because one Chinese President has 2.5 terms of any one term USA President ...they have enough time to effect the changes they want to see and negotiate slowly

[tonbridgebrit]

And also, America, it's not just about YOU and WalMart. In Britain, we have Argos, and Argos also has a whole load of Chinese made stuff. Yes, the sea lanes must be kept open. Chinese goods must be allowed to enter Britain, and Europe.

Keep the sea lanes open. Who is against keeping the sea lanes open ? Who is against the Chinese goods being in WalMart and Argos ? Who ?

I want to know, I demand answers now !!

[LawrenceChee]

argos-uk.jpg

And also, America, it's not just about YOU and WalMart. In Britain, we have Argos, and Argos also has a whole load of Chinese made stuff. Yes, the sea lanes must be kept open. Chinese goods must be allowed to enter Britain, and Europe.

Keep the sea lanes open. Who is against keeping the sea lanes open ? Who is against the Chinese goods being in WalMart and Argos ? Who ?

I want to know, I demand answers now !!

Answer : Comrade P ?

Have a great day TVF ....looks like another hot blistering day with 42 degrees in the horizon ...I'm flying out tonight to South Korea for some cool comfort and business talks on more trade to keep those sea lanes open

Actually it's interesting in my last trip when I was in Dongguan ; I met a specialist group of factories that produces stuff for the American military bases.

I hope those Commanders won't ever agree to a blockade as their Christmas gifts wont arrive at the bases and it would be a sad Christmas for the boys

[Publicus]

China is pushing the envelope in several directions. It the old days, countries did it by rolling out armies, or (as with Louisiana Purchase, Seward's Folly or HK) by treaties/purchases. Nowadays, China is doing it like a 900 lb sumo wrestler, just leaning, leaning leaning (no matter how long it takes) and the opponent being pushed out.

It's got several border disputes with India, occasional tiffs with VN, bad blood with Tibet, Taiwan and Japan, and now the insidious expansion to islands owned by smaller SE Asian countries.

No matter how slow/clandestine it tries to go, or how China tries to assuage concerns ("no involvement by UN, by US, by int'l law"), shit will hit the fan, particularly in the S.China Sea.

China as has expansion plans for SE Asia. Each country is being dealt with individually. Laos, Cambodia and Thailand are the easiest for China to impress, because all three are helplessly in awe of China's might. For its part, Burma is showing some backbone, in particular, not allowing China to build giant dams. Thailand has the spine of a jellyfish, as it agrees with every Chinese request.

Indeed, CCP Dictators in Beijing 15 years ago knew what they were going to try to pull off in the SCS so they set out also to butter up Asean with money, projects, more corruption, a velvet glove approach etc.

They called it the "Ripe Fruit" strategy, i.e., to win over Asean so that CCP could get a free reign over the SCS without any Asean opposition, hesitation, reservation. Certainly get no resistance by Asean.

However the ripe fruit strategy turned into the rotted fruit with flies bin. Now it's sour grapes in Beijing. Asean did divide, with Cambodia leading among Beijing allies Laos and Thailand, but the main group of the seven are either not in Beijing's pocket or are standing there throwing tomatoes at CCP.

Vietnam is fierce about it and so are the Phillipines. Singapore is steadfastly receiving USN littoral combat ships, four of 'em, a P8 recon plane and had already built a new aircraft carrier harbor channel and docking facilities.

Indonesia which had figured it didn't have dog in the fight is now arming up its Natuna Island archipelago in the south SCS which has territorial waters CCP says belong to them. Brunei is alarmed and moving toward support from Indonesia and Malaysia, while Malaysia is openly connecting to US, India, Australia.

Myanmar has moved decidedly away from CCP while not completely throwing them out, which is not much to say for the CCP wobbly standing there.

The consensus among the outstanding seven is the SCS Code of Conduct which Asean adopted in its first forms in 2005 then revised and expanded in 2012 with its present ten member states. The CoC calls for cooperation between Asean and CCP, mutuality, negotiations, sharing of resources by agreed terms, common approaches, terms, conciliation by all parties involved etc etc.

No dice in Beijing which will only dictate to one country at a time rather than deal with Asean as a whole. Again, it is the summary and arbitrary authoritarian and summary absolutism of the CCP in Beijing that is mucking up the works and turning almost everyone in the region against Beijing.

The long and the short of it is that there will be no Munich in East and South Asia.

[Publicus]

argos-uk.jpg

And also, America, it's not just about YOU and WalMart. In Britain, we have Argos, and Argos also has a whole load of Chinese made stuff. Yes, the sea lanes must be kept open. Chinese goods must be allowed to enter Britain, and Europe.

Keep the sea lanes open. Who is against keeping the sea lanes open ? Who is against the Chinese goods being in WalMart and Argos ? Who ?

I want to know, I demand answers now !!

Answer : Comrade P ?

Have a great day TVF ....looks like another hot blistering day with 42 degrees in the horizon ...I'm flying out tonight to South Korea for some cool comfort and business talks on more trade to keep those sea lanes open

Actually it's interesting in my last trip when I was in Dongguan ; I met a specialist group of factories that produces stuff for the American military bases.

I hope those Commanders won't ever agree to a blockade as their Christmas gifts wont arrive at the bases and it would be a sad Christmas for the boys

A military blockade of military assets, material and personnel only in the South China Sea. That is, a limited and targeted and focused blockade if one is to occur, which may eventuate if CCP does not quit its absolutism about the SCS.

The expansive aspect of a blockade was presented in my post as a part of the perspective of a naval blockade in a larger picture which does not presently exist nor is it ever likely to eventuate.

Recommend youse guyz try here plse thx: http://www.readingrockets.org/helping/target/comprehension

[Publicus]

argos-uk.jpg

And also, America, it's not just about YOU and WalMart. In Britain, we have Argos, and Argos also has a whole load of Chinese made stuff. Yes, the sea lanes must be kept open. Chinese goods must be allowed to enter Britain, and Europe.

Keep the sea lanes open. Who is against keeping the sea lanes open ? Who is against the Chinese goods being in WalMart and Argos ? Who ?

I want to know, I demand answers now !!

Answer : Comrade P ?

Have a great day TVF ....looks like another hot blistering day with 42 degrees in the horizon ...I'm flying out tonight to South Korea for some cool comfort and business talks on more trade to keep those sea lanes open

Actually it's interesting in my last trip when I was in Dongguan ; I met a specialist group of factories that produces stuff for the American military bases.

I hope those Commanders won't ever agree to a blockade as their Christmas gifts wont arrive at the bases and it would be a sad Christmas for the boys

Let's hope CCP does not exploit and abuse innocent civilians in any disputes or conflicts, either to some extent or en masse.

It would be criminal, repugnant, repulsive.

Give an horrendous new Chinese meaning to 'women and children first'.

[tonbridgebrit]

China is pushing the envelope in several directions. It the old days, countries did it by rolling out armies, or (as with Louisiana Purchase, Seward's Folly or HK) by treaties/purchases. Nowadays, China is doing it like a 900 lb sumo wrestler, just leaning, leaning leaning (no matter how long it takes) and the opponent being pushed out.

It's got several border disputes with India, occasional tiffs with VN, bad blood with Tibet, Taiwan and Japan, and now the insidious expansion to islands owned by smaller SE Asian countries.

No matter how slow/clandestine it tries to go, or how China tries to assuage concerns ("no involvement by UN, by US, by int'l law"), shit will hit the fan, particularly in the S.China Sea.

China as has expansion plans for SE Asia. Each country is being dealt with individually. Laos, Cambodia and Thailand are the easiest for China to impress, because all three are helplessly in awe of China's might. For its part, Burma is showing some backbone, in particular, not allowing China to build giant dams. Thailand has the spine of a jellyfish, as it agrees with every Chinese request.

Indeed, CCP Dictators in Beijing 15 years ago knew what they were going to try to pull off in the SCS so they set out also to butter up Asean with money, projects, more corruption, a velvet glove approach etc.

They called it the "Ripe Fruit" strategy, i.e., to win over Asean so that CCP could get a free reign over the SCS without any Asean opposition, hesitation, reservation. Certainly get no resistance by Asean.

However the ripe fruit strategy turned into the rotted fruit with flies bin. Now it's sour grapes in Beijing. Asean did divide, with Cambodia leading among Beijing allies Laos and Thailand, but the main group of the seven are either not in Beijing's pocket or are standing there throwing tomatoes at CCP.

Vietnam is fierce about it and so are the Phillipines. Singapore is steadfastly receiving USN littoral combat ships, four of 'em, a P8 recon plane and had already built a new aircraft carrier harbor channel and docking facilities.

Indonesia which had figured it didn't have dog in the fight is now arming up its Natuna Island archipelago in the south SCS which has territorial waters CCP says belong to them. Brunei is alarmed and moving toward support from Indonesia and Malaysia, while Malaysia is openly connecting to US, India, Australia.

Myanmar has moved decidedly away from CCP while not completely throwing them out, which is not much to say for the CCP wobbly standing there.

The consensus among the outstanding seven is the SCS Code of Conduct which Asean adopted in its first forms in 2005 then revised and expanded in 2012 with its present ten member states. The CoC calls for cooperation between Asean and CCP, mutuality, negotiations, sharing of resources by agreed terms, common approaches, terms, conciliation by all parties involved etc etc.

No dice in Beijing which will only dictate to one country at a time rather than deal with Asean as a whole. Again, it is the summary and arbitrary authoritarian and summary absolutism of the CCP in Beijing that is mucking up the works and turning almost everyone in the region against Beijing.

The long and the short of it is that there will be no Munich in East and South Asia.

Publicus, stop being ridiculous.

Yes, you're right on one thing. Cambodia, Thailand and Laos are IN with Beijing. Them three nations are satellite states of China, they're NOT satellite states of Washington. Little Singapore, who are they ? They're actually a bunch of Chinese who are on an island called Singapore.

So, we have People's Republic of China (the real China), Republic of China (Taiwan) and now we have another China : ISLAND of China (Singapore). Anybody who has been to Singapore will know that the Singaporeans look the same as the Chinese. That's because THEY ARE A BUNCH of Chinese. Any people who look the same as them people working in your local Chinese take-away food shop, they ARE Chinese.

[tonbridgebrit]

Let's hope CCP does not exploit and abuse innocent civilians in any disputes or conflicts, either to some extent or en masse.

It would be criminal, repugnant, repulsive.

Give an horrendous new Chinese meaning to 'women and children first'.

Publicus, stop being ridiculous AND hypocritical.

You want to talk about 'exploitation and abuse of innocent civilians in disputes and conflicts, to some extent or en masse' ?? What ??

Man, how many civilians has Washington killed using it's foreign policy ? How many have died (civilians who are Arabs in the Middle East) ??

[keemapoot]

China is pushing the envelope in several directions. It the old days, countries did it by rolling out armies, or (as with Louisiana Purchase, Seward's Folly or HK) by treaties/purchases. Nowadays, China is doing it like a 900 lb sumo wrestler, just leaning, leaning leaning (no matter how long it takes) and the opponent being pushed out.

It's got several border disputes with India, occasional tiffs with VN, bad blood with Tibet, Taiwan and Japan, and now the insidious expansion to islands owned by smaller SE Asian countries.

No matter how slow/clandestine it tries to go, or how China tries to assuage concerns ("no involvement by UN, by US, by int'l law"), shit will hit the fan, particularly in the S.China Sea.

China as has expansion plans for SE Asia. Each country is being dealt with individually. Laos, Cambodia and Thailand are the easiest for China to impress, because all three are helplessly in awe of China's might. For its part, Burma is showing some backbone, in particular, not allowing China to build giant dams. Thailand has the spine of a jellyfish, as it agrees with every Chinese request.

Indeed, CCP Dictators in Beijing 15 years ago knew what they were going to try to pull off in the SCS so they set out also to butter up Asean with money, projects, more corruption, a velvet glove approach etc.

They called it the "Ripe Fruit" strategy, i.e., to win over Asean so that CCP could get a free reign over the SCS without any Asean opposition, hesitation, reservation. Certainly get no resistance by Asean.

However the ripe fruit strategy turned into the rotted fruit with flies bin. Now it's sour grapes in Beijing. Asean did divide, with Cambodia leading among Beijing allies Laos and Thailand, but the main group of the seven are either not in Beijing's pocket or are standing there throwing tomatoes at CCP.

Vietnam is fierce about it and so are the Phillipines. Singapore is steadfastly receiving USN littoral combat ships, four of 'em, a P8 recon plane and had already built a new aircraft carrier harbor channel and docking facilities.

Indonesia which had figured it didn't have dog in the fight is now arming up its Natuna Island archipelago in the south SCS which has territorial waters CCP says belong to them. Brunei is alarmed and moving toward support from Indonesia and Malaysia, while Malaysia is openly connecting to US, India, Australia.

Myanmar has moved decidedly away from CCP while not completely throwing them out, which is not much to say for the CCP wobbly standing there.

The consensus among the outstanding seven is the SCS Code of Conduct which Asean adopted in its first forms in 2005 then revised and expanded in 2012 with its present ten member states. The CoC calls for cooperation between Asean and CCP, mutuality, negotiations, sharing of resources by agreed terms, common approaches, terms, conciliation by all parties involved etc etc.

No dice in Beijing which will only dictate to one country at a time rather than deal with Asean as a whole. Again, it is the summary and arbitrary authoritarian and summary absolutism of the CCP in Beijing that is mucking up the works and turning almost everyone in the region against Beijing.

The long and the short of it is that there will be no Munich in East and South Asia.

Publicus, stop being ridiculous.

Yes, you're right on one thing. Cambodia, Thailand and Laos are IN with Beijing. Them three nations are satellite states of China, they're NOT satellite states of Washington. Little Singapore, who are they ? They're actually a bunch of Chinese who are on an island called Singapore.

So, we have People's Republic of China (the real China), Republic of China (Taiwan) and now we have another China : ISLAND of China (Singapore). Anybody who has been to Singapore will know that the Singaporeans look the same as the Chinese. That's because THEY ARE A BUNCH of Chinese. Any people who look the same as them people working in your local Chinese take-away food shop, they ARE Chinese.

The problem with viewing China and the region as if you're reading an academic article in 'Foreign Affairs' journal (which I had a subscription to for years and enjoyed reading) is that China and the Asia-Pacific Chinese influenced region are not so conveniently nor unrealistically viewed in real life as in abstract academia or foreign affairs analysis.

Thailand is a mixed bag, vacillating between Chinese and American influence. Cambodia and Laos have been basket cases who easily were drawn into the arms of a Chinese lover who showered them with gifts. Vietnam has SCS territorial disputes and historical distrust and hatred yet shared economic and development interests. We can go on and on in the region and every place has its wrinkles and variations and there is no master plan by a Darth Vader evil communist empire, but simply a 4,000-5,000 year old empire that has finally reached its international blossoming, and yes, expansionism stage.

Chiefly important is the vast overseas Chinese diaspora, which keep Chinese identity and cultural and sometimes political values for many generations. China is like the Borg in that they are everywhere, but unlike the Borg in that they do not seek to assimilate and subsume all cultures, but rather integrate and maintain their separate cultural identity. (Star trek reference if unfamiliar google it)

Chinatown in every country does not equate to Chinese takeover of that country.

[tonbridgebrit]

Publicus, stop being ridiculous.

Yes, you're right on one thing. Cambodia, Thailand and Laos are IN with Beijing. Them three nations are satellite states of China, they're NOT satellite states of Washington. Little Singapore, who are they ? They're actually a bunch of Chinese who are on an island called Singapore.

So, we have People's Republic of China (the real China), Republic of China (Taiwan) and now we have another China : ISLAND of China (Singapore). Anybody who has been to Singapore will know that the Singaporeans look the same as the Chinese. That's because THEY ARE A BUNCH of Chinese. Any people who look the same as them people working in your local Chinese take-away food shop, they ARE Chinese.

The problem with viewing China and the region as if you're reading an academic article in 'Foreign Affairs' journal (which I had a subscription to for years and enjoyed reading) is that China and the Asia-Pacific Chinese influenced region are not so conveniently nor unrealistically viewed in real life as in abstract academia or foreign affairs analysis.

Thailand is a mixed bag, vacillating between Chinese and American influence. Cambodia and Laos have been basket cases who easily were drawn into the arms of a Chinese lover who showered them with gifts. Vietnam has SCS territorial disputes and historical distrust and hatred yet shared economic and development interests. We can go on and on in the region and every place has its wrinkles and variations and there is no master plan by a Darth Vader evil communist empire, but simply a 4,000-5,000 year old empire that has finally reached its international blossoming, and yes, expansionism stage.

Chiefly important is the vast overseas Chinese diaspora, which keep Chinese identity and cultural and sometimes political values for many generations. China is like the Borg in that they are everywhere, but unlike the Borg in that they do not seek to assimilate and subsume all cultures, but rather integrate and maintain their separate cultural identity. (Star trek reference if unfamiliar google it)

Chinatown in every country does not equate to Chinese takeover of that country.

Very interesing point.

We might as well say, that the European diaspora in the Americas and Australia has taken over a large mass of land. And that this European diaspora has kept it's cultural identity and has never been interested in being assimilated to the indigenous culture (the aborigenes of Australia and native Americans of the Americas).

It's not just them Chinese who have kept their seperate identity and culture after many generations. Them Europeans have done it as well. And them Jews too. Maybe them Arabs/Muslims will follow in the same footsteps.

[LawrenceChee]

argos-uk.jpg

And also, America, it's not just about YOU and WalMart. In Britain, we have Argos, and Argos also has a whole load of Chinese made stuff. Yes, the sea lanes must be kept open. Chinese goods must be allowed to enter Britain, and Europe.

Keep the sea lanes open. Who is against keeping the sea lanes open ? Who is against the Chinese goods being in WalMart and Argos ? Who ?

I want to know, I demand answers now !!

Answer : Comrade P ?

Have a great day TVF ....looks like another hot blistering day with 42 degrees in the horizon ...I'm flying out tonight to South Korea for some cool comfort and business talks on more trade to keep those sea lanes open

Actually it's interesting in my last trip when I was in Dongguan ; I met a specialist group of factories that produces stuff for the American military bases.

I hope those Commanders won't ever agree to a blockade as their Christmas gifts wont arrive at the bases and it would be a sad Christmas for the boys

Let's hope CCP does not exploit and abuse innocent civilians in any disputes or conflicts, either to some extent or en masse.

It would be criminal, repugnant, repulsive.

Give an horrendous new Chinese meaning to 'women and children first'.

The American military has already beaten the Chinese and many nations to that

Like I say , fly down to the town of Danang and from there bus to any of the rehab Centres of Agent Orange all supported by private donations

You will see the horrendous meaning to devastation on civilians first hand ....these adults are in a sad state of vegetation for their entire lives and these are not in small numbers and unfortunately I am not exaggerating.

The humane thing is most families have forgiven the American military as they know they were just following orders and yet a simple apology has never been made for closure .

I have many American colleagues contributing to this which always helps balances out the views that private individuals are never the same as the government and media politics

Many at the centre are touched by the kindness of these Americans and in a small and meaningful way, they reconcile the past and reality for these families

Admitting to your past and apologising doesn't make you any smaller

[LawrenceChee]

China is pushing the envelope in several directions. It the old days, countries did it by rolling out armies, or (as with Louisiana Purchase, Seward's Folly or HK) by treaties/purchases. Nowadays, China is doing it like a 900 lb sumo wrestler, just leaning, leaning leaning (no matter how long it takes) and the opponent being pushed out.

It's got several border disputes with India, occasional tiffs with VN, bad blood with Tibet, Taiwan and Japan, and now the insidious expansion to islands owned by smaller SE Asian countries.

No matter how slow/clandestine it tries to go, or how China tries to assuage concerns ("no involvement by UN, by US, by int'l law"), shit will hit the fan, particularly in the S.China Sea.

China as has expansion plans for SE Asia. Each country is being dealt with individually. Laos, Cambodia and Thailand are the easiest for China to impress, because all three are helplessly in awe of China's might. For its part, Burma is showing some backbone, in particular, not allowing China to build giant dams. Thailand has the spine of a jellyfish, as it agrees with every Chinese request.

Indeed, CCP Dictators in Beijing 15 years ago knew what they were going to try to pull off in the SCS so they set out also to butter up Asean with money, projects, more corruption, a velvet glove approach etc.

They called it the "Ripe Fruit" strategy, i.e., to win over Asean so that CCP could get a free reign over the SCS without any Asean opposition, hesitation, reservation. Certainly get no resistance by Asean.

However the ripe fruit strategy turned into the rotted fruit with flies bin. Now it's sour grapes in Beijing. Asean did divide, with Cambodia leading among Beijing allies Laos and Thailand, but the main group of the seven are either not in Beijing's pocket or are standing there throwing tomatoes at CCP.

Vietnam is fierce about it and so are the Phillipines. Singapore is steadfastly receiving USN littoral combat ships, four of 'em, a P8 recon plane and had already built a new aircraft carrier harbor channel and docking facilities.

Indonesia which had figured it didn't have dog in the fight is now arming up its Natuna Island archipelago in the south SCS which has territorial waters CCP says belong to them. Brunei is alarmed and moving toward support from Indonesia and Malaysia, while Malaysia is openly connecting to US, India, Australia.

Myanmar has moved decidedly away from CCP while not completely throwing them out, which is not much to say for the CCP wobbly standing there.

The consensus among the outstanding seven is the SCS Code of Conduct which Asean adopted in its first forms in 2005 then revised and expanded in 2012 with its present ten member states. The CoC calls for cooperation between Asean and CCP, mutuality, negotiations, sharing of resources by agreed terms, common approaches, terms, conciliation by all parties involved etc etc.

No dice in Beijing which will only dictate to one country at a time rather than deal with Asean as a whole. Again, it is the summary and arbitrary authoritarian and summary absolutism of the CCP in Beijing that is mucking up the works and turning almost everyone in the region against Beijing.

The long and the short of it is that there will be no Munich in East and South Asia.

Publicus, stop being ridiculous.

Yes, you're right on one thing. Cambodia, Thailand and Laos are IN with Beijing. Them three nations are satellite states of China, they're NOT satellite states of Washington. Little Singapore, who are they ? They're actually a bunch of Chinese who are on an island called Singapore.

So, we have People's Republic of China (the real China), Republic of China (Taiwan) and now we have another China : ISLAND of China (Singapore). Anybody who has been to Singapore will know that the Singaporeans look the same as the Chinese. That's because THEY ARE A BUNCH of Chinese. Any people who look the same as them people working in your local Chinese take-away food shop, they ARE Chinese.

The problem with viewing China and the region as if you're reading an academic article in 'Foreign Affairs' journal (which I had a subscription to for years and enjoyed reading) is that China and the Asia-Pacific Chinese influenced region are not so conveniently nor unrealistically viewed in real life as in abstract academia or foreign affairs analysis.

Thailand is a mixed bag, vacillating between Chinese and American influence. Cambodia and Laos have been basket cases who easily were drawn into the arms of a Chinese lover who showered them with gifts. Vietnam has SCS territorial disputes and historical distrust and hatred yet shared economic and development interests. We can go on and on in the region and every place has its wrinkles and variations and there is no master plan by a Darth Vader evil communist empire, but simply a 4,000-5,000 year old empire that has finally reached its international blossoming, and yes, expansionism stage.

Chiefly important is the vast overseas Chinese diaspora, which keep Chinese identity and cultural and sometimes political values for many generations. China is like the Borg in that they are everywhere, but unlike the Borg in that they do not seek to assimilate and subsume all cultures, but rather integrate and maintain their separate cultural identity. (Star trek reference if unfamiliar google it)

Chinatown in every country does not equate to Chinese takeover of that country.

Agree for me Chinatown is the place I go to for Dim Sum and catch up of some local gossip and politics which is the whole point of it

No one there talks about take overs only taxes and mundane stuff like the weather ....

Join in one of these clubs especially calligraphy ...it has helped me honed patience even though my writing is still not up to scratch

[LawrenceChee]

argos-uk.jpg

And also, America, it's not just about YOU and WalMart. In Britain, we have Argos, and Argos also has a whole load of Chinese made stuff. Yes, the sea lanes must be kept open. Chinese goods must be allowed to enter Britain, and Europe.

Keep the sea lanes open. Who is against keeping the sea lanes open ? Who is against the Chinese goods being in WalMart and Argos ? Who ?

I want to know, I demand answers now !!

Answer : Comrade P ?

Have a great day TVF ....looks like another hot blistering day with 42 degrees in the horizon ...I'm flying out tonight to South Korea for some cool comfort and business talks on more trade to keep those sea lanes open

Actually it's interesting in my last trip when I was in Dongguan ; I met a specialist group of factories that produces stuff for the American military bases.

I hope those Commanders won't ever agree to a blockade as their Christmas gifts wont arrive at the bases and it would be a sad Christmas for the boys

A military blockade of military assets, material and personnel only in the South China Sea. That is, a limited and targeted and focused blockade if one is to occur, which may eventuate if CCP does not quit its absolutism about the SCS.

The expansive aspect of a blockade was presented in my post as a part of the perspective of a naval blockade in a larger picture which does not presently exist nor is it ever likely to eventuate.

Recommend youse guyz try here plse thx: http://www.readingrockets.org/helping/target/comprehension

This above recommendation is the reason why the foreign military policy has always failed the USA

It's always targetted ( read recently Iraq , Afghanistan , Syria , Iran, ) and it's always limited because they run out of money , time and political resolution

This methodology is rejected by many nations as there is no Long term planning or strategy

Just blocked them limited time and limited to CCP...in all of these dumb speeches , the USA has been caught with expensive campaigns with no ability to close out any of them or have a firm idea what the end game looks like

Have you seen how difficult it was to locate MH370 ....that's just one plane went missing ...you think there is military hardware and technology where you can block the Chinese vessels or is this some wild dream like when the steamers rolled into Yokohama and forced Japanese to open up ?

This is China and the USA military is still guessing the actual strength of the military forces because the Chinese won't publish it

This is 21st century ....no ally will be a fool to join such a dumb campaign as the Chinese foreign minister says ...the state of intertwined trade is so independent , USA and China has to co-exist

That is the best summary of today's world.

No military , just lets continue talking and be sensible please like TVF

[keemapoot]

argos-uk.jpg

And also, America, it's not just about YOU and WalMart. In Britain, we have Argos, and Argos also has a whole load of Chinese made stuff. Yes, the sea lanes must be kept open. Chinese goods must be allowed to enter Britain, and Europe.

Keep the sea lanes open. Who is against keeping the sea lanes open ? Who is against the Chinese goods being in WalMart and Argos ? Who ?

I want to know, I demand answers now !!

Answer : Comrade P ?

Have a great day TVF ....looks like another hot blistering day with 42 degrees in the horizon ...I'm flying out tonight to South Korea for some cool comfort and business talks on more trade to keep those sea lanes open

Actually it's interesting in my last trip when I was in Dongguan ; I met a specialist group of factories that produces stuff for the American military bases.

I hope those Commanders won't ever agree to a blockade as their Christmas gifts wont arrive at the bases and it would be a sad Christmas for the boys

A military blockade of military assets, material and personnel only in the South China Sea. That is, a limited and targeted and focused blockade if one is to occur, which may eventuate if CCP does not quit its absolutism about the SCS.

The expansive aspect of a blockade was presented in my post as a part of the perspective of a naval blockade in a larger picture which does not presently exist nor is it ever likely to eventuate.

Recommend youse guyz try here plse thx: http://www.readingrockets.org/helping/target/comprehension

This above recommendation is the reason why the foreign military policy has always failed the USA

It's always targetted ( read recently Iraq , Afghanistan , Syria , Iran, ) and it's always limited because they run out of money , time and political resolution

This methodology is rejected by many nations as there is no Long term planning or strategy

Just blocked them limited time and limited to CCP...in all of these dumb speeches , the USA has been caught with expensive campaigns with no ability to close out any of them or have a firm idea what the end game looks like

Have you seen how difficult it was to locate MH370 ....that's just one plane went missing ...you think there is military hardware and technology where you can block the Chinese vessels or is this some wild dream like when the steamers rolled into Yokohama and forced Japanese to open up ?

This is China and the USA military is still guessing the actual strength of the military forces because the Chinese won't publish it

This is 21st century ....no ally will be a fool to join such a dumb campaign as the Chinese foreign minister says ...the state of intertwined trade is so independent , USA and China has to co-exist

That is the best summary of today's world.

No military , just lets continue talking and be sensible please like TVF

Indeed. One of my very close associates is on the city council in Bangkok's Chinatown (Yaowarat - Samphanthawong district). He also happens to be quite highly placed in the democrat party as you might guess, but that's a discussion for another thread.

He comes from a long line of Chinese Thai Chinatown families, and can't speak more than a few words of Chinese. His main interest in the great empire of China is that he gets to sit on the master of ceremonies float during the Chinese New Year parade in Chinatown every year. That's about it. No secret agendas, no spying for the Chinese government.

**woops, just saw that I quoted the wrong post, I meant to quote your post about Chinatown. Oh well, not serious, this is just a way to waste time between meetings with my Thai Chinese partners coming in a few minutes to my office.