New Brexit polls suggest shift in favour of leaving the EU

[sandyf 6,358]

Will the UK be left at the side of the road?

How has the New Silk Road impacted Chinese-European relations?

"I would say that relations are warming," said the professor. "China has been pretty assertive about going to Europe with various deals. They have already announced deals with Scotland, Italy, and many countries."

Lee suggested that Europe has a lot to be gained by the arrangement, given the continent’s stagnating economy and the desire to explore emerging markets.

"China is offering a way for Europe to reach these markets, so for both sides it is a win-win, and it is fair to say that both sides would only engage in these negotiations if they see benefits to themselves," said Lee.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/news/20160603/1040704275/beijing-europe-washington-trade-geopolitics.html#ixzz4AZTgxN7k

[sandyf 6,358]

Exactly the point. The implications are global so it has everything to do with them.

This is one of the fundamental problems, the leave campaign cannot see beyond the UK borders.

That is one of the problems Sandy "we don't have any borders"

I must have it all wrong, I was under the impression that people had to show their passports to enter the UK.

[sandyf 6,358]

Let me tell you what I see happening, immediately a Brexit vote comes out on top in the referendum.

Firstly, the currency markets will in all probability gyrate for a while whist traders come to terms with the

new reality. Remember that nothing of substance will have taken place on 24th June; only the

emotional or psychological impact of the event! The markets will then settle down and stabilise, and in a

short period of time will not look too much different than the relative pricing levels at which currencies were

trading on the run up to the referendum.

Secondly, there will be a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth by the politicians and bodies who were

campaigning for the United Kingdom to stay in the EU. This will have no tangible expression, anywhere.

They will largely be wondering what their own futures were now going to be.

Thirdly, the European Commission will have to take a hard look at what Brexit will mean to the EU's

structure and stability, going forward, and what the deleterious effects Brexit will have on the value of

the Euro,and what it will mean for their budgets. Probably some "pet" projects are going to have to be put on

hold, for a considerable while. The accession of the poorest of the poor countries waiting in the wings

will have to be put back for an even longer period. Now the hard work begins for these non-elected

officials!

Simultaneously, there will be an enormous amount of soul-searching within the political ranks of the

United Kingdom, followed by a re-shuffle of leading positions and, perhaps, a new political order coming

to the fore. It is possible a General Election will be called within a short period.

Finally, a date will be set by the UK and the EU for the start of the complex negotiations to take place for

an orderly winding down of Britain's involvement within the EU, and a new relationship to take effect. A

full 24-months is provided for, for this process, although that is not to say that it cannot be extended,

subject to negotiation between the parties.

Simultaneously with this, the United Kingdom will continue to trade with the European Union whilst

negotiating and entering into any new global trade, commercial and sovereign agreements with which it will

need to engage, for the future.

Britain has always punched above its weight. Post-Brexit, I expect to see the nation pulling together with common

purpose, as it did in the War years. A bright future beckons.

As to what Brexit means for the United Kingdom: THE SKY WILL NOT FALL, NOR WILL BRITAIN SINK INTO THE

ATLANTIC. NOR WILL THERE BE MASS UNEMPLOYMENT OR SUICIDES. Life will continue largely as before,

whilst world affairs continues to evolve at a calm and measured pace, with not much discernible change.

All of the above, IMHO.

Reasonable hypothesis should the vote go that way. However, even if that were the situation I think that before any negotiations get very far that global events will push the whole issue to one side and the outcome lead to another referendum.

It is very unlikely that the UK will ever leave the EU.

[sandyf 6,358]

If the ballot paper was to be reworded, would it affect the polls?

""Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union at any cost?"

[RuamRudy 12,312]

LOL

" Yes, the EU can be made more democratic " well I wouldn't be holding my breath for that one
the only ones with a bright future will be the politicians and bureaucrats that will go on collecting their obscene salaries year after year as the rest of the real world economy sinks further and further into depression
I very much doubt the UK will prosper within the EU because I doubt whether the EU itself will prosper.look at Greece.
What's it got to offer for God's sake?

The EU has been prosperous for the last 10 years , or so compared to the down turn in the global economy. Without the EU, a number of countries, mostly ex Eastern Block ones, would not have a prospering economy like today. As far as the UK goes, where do the UK exports mostly go to? As far as the London Financial Centre is concerned, just imagine how much it will shrink without the EU. I do know that most of the readers will disagree, but I, and I am an economist, believe that the UK would be better off if it not only stays in the EU but joins the EURO, in spite of the Greek disaster, which albeit, has not been dealt with properly.

I really do believe it will be a disaster for the UK to leave the EU. Apart from the financial and social drawbacks, the nearly certain result will be the succession of Scotland, which is very keen on staying in the EU. Even Wales may follow thereafter. What a disaster that would be!

How as the EU been prosperous when it has one of the lowest economic growths on the planet?

This is the World Bank data for economic growth by country - the first country that is close to one I would want to be part of the labour force is Ireland at number 46. Do you want Europe to mirror the likes of Turkmenistan, Chad or Rwanda? Stable and steady is my preferred option.

With all due respect, I would suggest that you are referring to the incorrect chart in support of your conclusion. You would be much better served by looking
at the per capita GDP rankings, and not at the individual country's ranking. Why? Because total nominal GDP is influenced by a variety of inputs and one is not comparing apples with apples. Thus, in the chart you have cited, China and India, with GDP growth in the period of 7.3% each, ranks them at numbers 13 and
14 respectively. However, if you look at their "per capita" GDP rankings, it tells a whole new story, actually putting them at numbers 77 and 138 respectively, partly because of their huge populations.

GDP per capita does not show a "standard of living" comparison, although it is somewhat of a good guide. You might, for example, therefore, look at Norway (non-EU), Switzerland (non-EU) and Denmark (EU) for "slow and steady" with high GDP per capita rankings. Respectively, and interestingly, the are ranked numbers
2, 4 and 6 on a per capita GDP ranking, according to the World Bank (2014).

Firstly, thank you for bucking the trend and not opening with a salvo of insults about my economic comprehension, as is the way for many TV posters, especially with regards to BREXIT.

I need to digest your comments a while, but thanks for the counterpoint and, hopefully, additional insight.

[Grouse 9,170]

They did some geographical analysis of the polls.

Wales & Scotland are firmly Remain, England is a marginal Leave.

Not quite correct, the parts of the country that are willing to give up their independence to the EU are London and to reducing numbers Scotland. The parts of the country that are more likely to vote Brexit are Wales and the remaining parts of England. As for Northern Ireland,they will vote as the always have.

England is essentially 2 countries.

Correct. Yorkshire and the rest!

[allanos 1,134]

Let me tell you what I see happening, immediately a Brexit vote comes out on top in the referendum.

Firstly, the currency markets will in all probability gyrate for a while whist traders come to terms with the

new reality. Remember that nothing of substance will have taken place on 24th June; only the

emotional or psychological impact of the event! The markets will then settle down and stabilise, and in a

short period of time will not look too much different than the relative pricing levels at which currencies were

trading on the run up to the referendum.

Secondly, there will be a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth by the politicians and bodies who were

campaigning for the United Kingdom to stay in the EU. This will have no tangible expression, anywhere.

They will largely be wondering what their own futures were now going to be.

Thirdly, the European Commission will have to take a hard look at what Brexit will mean to the EU's

structure and stability, going forward, and what the deleterious effects Brexit will have on the value of

the Euro,and what it will mean for their budgets. Probably some "pet" projects are going to have to be put on

hold, for a considerable while. The accession of the poorest of the poor countries waiting in the wings

will have to be put back for an even longer period. Now the hard work begins for these non-elected

officials!

Simultaneously, there will be an enormous amount of soul-searching within the political ranks of the

United Kingdom, followed by a re-shuffle of leading positions and, perhaps, a new political order coming

to the fore. It is possible a General Election will be called within a short period.

Finally, a date will be set by the UK and the EU for the start of the complex negotiations to take place for

an orderly winding down of Britain's involvement within the EU, and a new relationship to take effect. A

full 24-months is provided for, for this process, although that is not to say that it cannot be extended,

subject to negotiation between the parties.

Simultaneously with this, the United Kingdom will continue to trade with the European Union whilst

negotiating and entering into any new global trade, commercial and sovereign agreements with which it will

need to engage, for the future.

Britain has always punched above its weight. Post-Brexit, I expect to see the nation pulling together with common

purpose, as it did in the War years. A bright future beckons.

As to what Brexit means for the United Kingdom: THE SKY WILL NOT FALL, NOR WILL BRITAIN SINK INTO THE

ATLANTIC. NOR WILL THERE BE MASS UNEMPLOYMENT OR SUICIDES. Life will continue largely as before,

whilst world affairs continues to evolve at a calm and measured pace, with not much discernible change.

All of the above, IMHO.

"Firstly, the currency markets will in all probability gyrate for a while whist traders come to terms with the

new reality. Remember that nothing of substance will have taken place on 24th June; only the

emotional or psychological impact of the event! The markets will then settle down and stabilise, and in a

short period of time will not look too much different than the relative pricing levels at which currencies were

trading on the run up to the referendum".

You appear to have glossed over a series of hugely important events and consolidated several years of change into a few throw away lines, perhaps we can look at them in more detail.

Here's a link to three different scenario's put together by the FT, your preferred scenario is outlined in Option 1, the one that is caveated with the words, "Most economists question the underlying assumptions in this scenario".

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/70d0bfd8-d1b3-11e5-831d-09f7778e7377.html

Poster/readers who are interested in the financial implications of Brexit may wish to read and understand those options.

Clearly, what has eluded you, or that you have failed to understand, is that the whole of the Brexit debate, on both sides, is predicated upon "assumptions".

[chiang mai 12,655]

"Firstly, the currency markets will in all probability gyrate for a while whist traders come to terms with the

new reality. Remember that nothing of substance will have taken place on 24th June; only the

emotional or psychological impact of the event! The markets will then settle down and stabilise, and in a

short period of time will not look too much different than the relative pricing levels at which currencies were

trading on the run up to the referendum".

You appear to have glossed over a series of hugely important events and consolidated several years of change into a few throw away lines, perhaps we can look at them in more detail.

Here's a link to three different scenario's put together by the FT, your preferred scenario is outlined in Option 1, the one that is caveated with the words, "Most economists question the underlying assumptions in this scenario".

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/70d0bfd8-d1b3-11e5-831d-09f7778e7377.html

Poster/readers who are interested in the financial implications of Brexit may wish to read and understand those options.

Clearly, what has eluded you, or that you have failed to understand, is that the whole of the Brexit debate, on both sides, is predicated upon "assumptions".

Assumptions, you don't say!

So which of the three options are you going to choose to fill in the gaps in your post Brexit scenario?

[allanos 1,134]

If the UK needs any further motivation to BREXIT this video is it. With just weeks left to one of the most important votes of the EU...one of the most important of a member state, this kpjackarse is drunk, acting the fool. Considering the hour and those meeting, this is effed up.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?ebc=ANyPxKoAoYsmJKdpJR8_QB2xKuX-oUHNYUD1NjseHdfiC7tIahwAx6VnuvVHGIivAC6Hy4GyiSgu_Iq6dyCU_c3WTWGoFkVR_g&v=XPgiI46FCDU&time_continue=62

"All power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely".

Sir John Dalberg-Acton

1834-1902

[allanos 1,134]

"Firstly, the currency markets will in all probability gyrate for a while whist traders come to terms with the

new reality. Remember that nothing of substance will have taken place on 24th June; only the

emotional or psychological impact of the event! The markets will then settle down and stabilise, and in a

short period of time will not look too much different than the relative pricing levels at which currencies were

trading on the run up to the referendum".

You appear to have glossed over a series of hugely important events and consolidated several years of change into a few throw away lines, perhaps we can look at them in more detail.

Here's a link to three different scenario's put together by the FT, your preferred scenario is outlined in Option 1, the one that is caveated with the words, "Most economists question the underlying assumptions in this scenario".

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/70d0bfd8-d1b3-11e5-831d-09f7778e7377.html

Poster/readers who are interested in the financial implications of Brexit may wish to read and understand those options.

Clearly, what has eluded you, or that you have failed to understand, is that the whole of the Brexit debate, on both sides, is predicated upon "assumptions".

Assumptions, you don't say!

So which of the three options are you going to choose to fill in the gaps in your post Brexit scenario?

My original post was of necessity, conflated. However, the comments made there are not "throw away lines", as you so sneeringly call them, but considered

opinions which I have formed over time.

I do not set great store by economists "forecasts". They, and the "modelling" they choose to use, often make the wrong call. They will then spend a considerable amount of time and effort to explain why they were wrong. It is counter-productivity at its most egregious.

I stand by my original thoughts on the subject, but will lighten the tone a little, with the following quotes.

Economic forecasting is like trying to drive a car blindfolded and following directions given by a person who is looking out of the back window.

OR

A physicist, a chemist, and an economist are stranded on an island with nothing to eat. A can of soup washes ashore.

The physicist says, "Let's smash the can open with a rock."

The chemist says, "Let's build a fire and heat the can first."

The economist says, "Let's assume that we have a can opener."

I hope you will be able to appreciate the irony. If you struggle to understand, let me know and I may be able to take the time to explain it to you.

[chiang mai 12,655]

Assumptions, you don't say!

So which of the three options are you going to choose to fill in the gaps in your post Brexit scenario?

My original post was of necessity, conflated. However, the comments made there are not "throw away lines", as you so sneeringly call them, but considered

opinions which I have formed over time.

I do not set great store by economists "forecasts". They, and the "modelling" they choose to use, often make the wrong call. They will then spend a considerable amount of time and effort to explain why they were wrong. It is counter-productivity at its most egregious.

I stand by my original thoughts on the subject, but will lighten the tone a little, with the following quotes.

Economic forecasting is like trying to drive a car blindfolded and following directions given by a person who is looking out of the back window.

OR

A physicist, a chemist, and an economist are stranded on an island with nothing to eat. A can of soup washes ashore.

The physicist says, "Let's smash the can open with a rock."

The chemist says, "Let's build a fire and heat the can first."

The economist says, "Let's assume that we have a can opener."

I hope you will be able to appreciate the irony. If you struggle to understand, let me know and I may be able to take the time to explain it to you.

The one thing the Brexit campaign has lacked since day one is that nobody has been prepared to set out any form of financial model detailing what the financial impacts of a Brexit might be. Even when presented with different models that set out various scenarios they have been unanimously unable to point to one and say yes, this is what we think will happen, this is the most likely. Instead, In the absence of any even remotely vague economic or financial model of their own, Remain has constructed models and said here, this is what we think will happen and Team Brexit turns around and says no, that's all lies and propaganda! That experience is rather like going shopping for a birthday present with a fickle partner who doesn't like anything that is suggested to her yet still can't decide or describe what she wants!

OK so no financial model from you guys and no comment from you on the options already prepared for you, cool! So is your reason for wanting Brexit based just based on nostalgia, patriotism, a feeling that it's what we should do or what? What exactly is your argument that will convince people they should vote for Brexit and how do you set aside all the potential economic woes that nearly every economist and informed interested player in the debate has expressed?

[Grouse 9,170]

The most cogent Brexit comment was from that woman from Romford:

Which way are you inclined to vote?

OUT

And why is that?

I DONT KNOW BUT I WANT OUT!

(Fools)

[chiang mai 12,655]

If that came back as the answer I may actually be OK with it, to a (small) degree. What I find bizarre though is that no answer comes back, no logical reasoning, no supportable facts, no detailed rebuttal of financial/economic arguments, no substance, nothing and I'm certain I'm not the only person who's having difficulty with that.

[chiang mai 12,655]

The most cogent Brexit comment was from that woman from Romford:

Which way are you inclined to vote?

OUT

And why is that?

I DONT KNOW BUT I WANT OUT!

(Fools)

Not really a fool, the lady has seen how her country has gone to sponging foreign folk.

You quote you have a business, perhaps you fear Brexit cos you fear a financial business problem, same as Cameron fears a financial problem with himself and his chums eh...?

With all due respect, the question is not why someone might fear Brexit, the question is why do you want it, what does it give us and at what cost.

[oxo1947 4,146]

If the ballot paper was to be reworded, would it affect the polls?

""Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union at any cost?"

Is it really slanted like that sandyf---?--I didn't realise "Dodgy" Dave had gone that far.

.

I do remember the Irish voting not to take the Euro......then the politicians took it back to them with even stronger fear pills to vote on it again, until they got the answer that they wanted. I wonder if that could be a scenario here.