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New Brexit polls suggest shift in favour of leaving the EU


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Possibly clutching at straws, as the "young" may not have the same emotional attachment

to the EU, as the "old tyrants" have toward the United Kingdom and a life-changing exit door.

Consequently, the "youthful vote" may not materialise.

I would hazard a guess that with the strong jump in UK/EU stock markets this morning, the GBP rising over 1.49 to the dollar and the dramatic shortening of the odds of remain an awful lot of smart money is in play and for that sort of coin they will know exactly who has been going through the doors of those polling stations so far.

I don't think you can trust the polls/odds at this stage ..... Some polling stations are closed due to the weather ... Perhaps undecided or border line voters will not bother ...

It will be close whatever the bookies say imo ..

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Possibly clutching at straws, as the "young" may not have the same emotional attachment

to the EU, as the "old tyrants" have toward the United Kingdom and a life-changing exit door.

Consequently, the "youthful vote" may not materialise.

I would hazard a guess that with the strong jump in UK/EU stock markets this morning, the GBP rising over 1.49 to the dollar and the dramatic shortening of the odds of remain an awful lot of smart money is in play and for that sort of coin they will know exactly who has been going through the doors of those polling stations so far.

Which suggests that a Remain victory is already priced into GBP and thus in this event we won't see much movement beyond say 1.50?

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Oh I don't know:

"Betting markets have swung sharply towards “remain”, and now imply around a 75% chance that Britain stays in. If the answer to the country’s biggest political question for a generation is indeed “Remain”, it will be a triumph of youthful optimism over the tyranny of the old". http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/06/britain-s-eu-referendum-0

So the iPhone reins, UK social security reins, no worries we will be taken care of reins, what was WW2 reins..........

If some of you want to be controlled by folk who are very different from you, do your thing.....Do not come back crying cos your toilet paper ain't good enough, that classic car in your garage must stay there and not be used on the road.....Mark my words.....

But those EU nuts who control you drink cheaper wine, can retire before you, and are laughing at you for handing over huge amounts of your dosh to retire before you, drink cheaper wine and come into your coutry to work for sod all while you worry about your mortgage payment.....

Rule yourself, take care of your UK family and not those who sponge from YOU..

I would guess for young people today, those who have always known us to be a part of the Eu, the referendum and the thought of leaving might just be a little scary so there's one reason why I think they will vote as expected. The second is they are more flexible in their future thinking, not encumbered by the past and all that entails, probably more futuristic than you or me, certainly me anyway at my age.

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Possibly clutching at straws, as the "young" may not have the same emotional attachment

to the EU, as the "old tyrants" have toward the United Kingdom and a life-changing exit door.

Consequently, the "youthful vote" may not materialise.

I would hazard a guess that with the strong jump in UK/EU stock markets this morning, the GBP rising over 1.49 to the dollar and the dramatic shortening of the odds of remain an awful lot of smart money is in play and for that sort of coin they will know exactly who has been going through the doors of those polling stations so far.

I don't think you can trust the polls/odds at this stage ..... Some polling stations are closed due to the weather ... Perhaps undecided or border line voters will not bother ...

It will be close whatever the bookies say imo ..

Does anyone of this forum have any sensible comments to make regarding how in/out voting would be playing out during the day.

For example, would the "uneducated 'working man'", "much-beloved" of Grouse, and probably a Brexiteer, be more likely to vote at the

end of the day, as opposed to the educated youthful voter as lauded by Chiang Mai,who may vote at an earlier time?

If so, this may be one explanation of an excess of Remainian votes versus Brexit votes so far.

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Possibly clutching at straws, as the "young" may not have the same emotional attachment

to the EU, as the "old tyrants" have toward the United Kingdom and a life-changing exit door.

Consequently, the "youthful vote" may not materialise.

I would hazard a guess that with the strong jump in UK/EU stock markets this morning, the GBP rising over 1.49 to the dollar and the dramatic shortening of the odds of remain an awful lot of smart money is in play and for that sort of coin they will know exactly who has been going through the doors of those polling stations so far.

I don't think you can trust the polls/odds at this stage ..... Some polling stations are closed due to the weather ... Perhaps undecided or border line voters will not bother ...

It will be close whatever the bookies say imo ..

Does anyone of this forum have any sensible comments to make regarding how in/out voting would be playing out during the day.

For example, would the "uneducated 'working man'", "much-beloved" of Grouse, and probably a Brexiteer, be more likely to vote at the

end of the day, as opposed to the educated youthful voter as lauded by Chiang Mai,who may vote at an earlier time?

If so, this may be one explanation of an excess of Remainian votes versus Brexit votes so far.

With the reporting restrictions in place i doubt us mere mortals will be privy to such info but i would be amazed if there is not someone outside every polling station keying age, sex, ethnicity and style of dress plus anything else they can think of into a device for real time forcasting hence the importance of market movements and betting odds that those details are driving.

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He's voted. Have you? Polls open until 10.00.

CloYEJaWEAEqZCL.jpg

Do sensible, grounded UK citizens, of whatever demographic, still have any belief in this egotistical politician?

If there were any reason to vote "out" of the EU, it would be because he has voted to "remain"!

The fact that war criminal voted remain is reason enough to vote exit...he should be in dock in a court of law not a polling booth

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Does anyone of this forum have any sensible comments to make regarding how in/out voting would be playing out during the day.

For example, would the "uneducated 'working man'", "much-beloved" of Grouse, and probably a Brexiteer, be more likely to vote at the

end of the day, as opposed to the educated youthful voter as lauded by Chiang Mai,who may vote at an earlier time?

If so, this may be one explanation of an excess of Remainian votes versus Brexit votes so far.

No.
The undecided majority still choose the caution and the status quo at the last moment.
That is why the bookmakers who know this principle, bet for remain against opinion polls.
I also believe that GBP, euro and European stock markets fly away for the same reasons.
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Oh I don't know:

"Betting markets have swung sharply towards “remain”, and now imply around a 75% chance that Britain stays in. If the answer to the country’s biggest political question for a generation is indeed “Remain”, it will be a triumph of youthful optimism over the tyranny of the old". http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/06/britain-s-eu-referendum-0

So the iPhone reins, UK social security reins, no worries we will be taken care of reins, what was WW2 reins..........

If some of you want to be controlled by folk who are very different from you, do your thing.....Do not come back crying cos your toilet paper ain't good enough, that classic car in your garage must stay there and not be used on the road.....Mark my words.....

But those EU nuts who control you drink cheaper wine, can retire before you, and are laughing at you for handing over huge amounts of your dosh to retire before you, drink cheaper wine and come into your coutry to work for sod all while you worry about your mortgage payment.....

Rule yourself, take care of your UK family and not those who sponge from YOU..

I would guess for young people today, those who have always known us to be a part of the Eu, the referendum and the thought of leaving might just be a little scary so there's one reason why I think they will vote as expected. The second is they are more flexible in their future thinking, not encumbered by the past and all that entails, probably more futuristic than you or me, certainly me anyway at my age.

Agree.

Those who are not sure are likely to vote on the side of caution.

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With the reporting restrictions in place i doubt us mere mortals will be privy to such info but i would be amazed if there is not someone outside every polling station keying age,

sex, ethnicity and style of dress plus anything else they can think of into a device for real time forcasting hence the importance of market movements and betting odds that

those details are driving.

Yes, possibly so. I was rather hoping to hear what sort of pattern might have emerged and be analysed in previous general elections, for example.

It might be possible then to extrapolate it to today's referendum.

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I would hazard a guess that with the strong jump in UK/EU stock markets this morning, the GBP rising over 1.49 to the dollar and the dramatic shortening of the odds of remain an awful lot of smart money is in play and for that sort of coin they will know exactly who has been going through the doors of those polling stations so far.

I don't think you can trust the polls/odds at this stage ..... Some polling stations are closed due to the weather ... Perhaps undecided or border line voters will not bother ...

It will be close whatever the bookies say imo ..

Does anyone of this forum have any sensible comments to make regarding how in/out voting would be playing out during the day.

For example, would the "uneducated 'working man'", "much-beloved" of Grouse, and probably a Brexiteer, be more likely to vote at the

end of the day, as opposed to the educated youthful voter as lauded by Chiang Mai,who may vote at an earlier time?

If so, this may be one explanation of an excess of Remainian votes versus Brexit votes so far.

As Orac has pointed out, exit polls are against the referendum rules but unofficial profiling may well be going on.

I am not the author, neither am I agreeing with this article, but it may well be that people are keeping their voting choices close to their chest.

Brexit supporters urged to take own pens to polling station amid fears of MI5 conspiracy

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/eu-referendum-brexit-how-to-vote-own-pens-polling-station-polls-live-latest-mi5-conspiracy-fears-a7097011.html

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I have to say that the way some TVP behave on here is disgraceful, Yes have an opinion, even disagree but the way some people speak (write) to others,is shameful and disrespectful. We all have opinions and that's fine. I disagree with many people on here at times but that doesn't condone the insults here. Stop it now and grow up.Its a passionate subject but at lest you have an opinion and a vote and allowed to share it. Unlike others- such as China and North Korea, as examples.

I am back in the morning after the result. Hopefully the tone here will be a little more adult.

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