New Brexit polls suggest shift in favour of leaving the EU

[arjunadawn]

I met an elderly Welch couple out for a walk today. We talked at length about the beauty of Wales. After we talked a bit they opened up and the topic turned to Brexit. I continued to observe the rugged individualism that coaled the nation, indeed the world fir a time. He explained they think they will vote Remain.

The talk turned to the dock area, the dead shipping, the dead harbor, the dead coal mining, the dead fishing. In describing its past he seemed pained to be describing landmarks that are now forever lost. He seemed slightly disoriented by the changing landscape, disappointed in his NHS, ad angry that so many suck up benefits where he had to "work for his wages." His tone changed as he walked down memory lane.

I nudged this on. "Brits lunched from here to conquer the world," I prodded. "The US president had the gall to come on British soil and threaten you, this should say all you need to know." I added that many other are also threatening UK. We talked a bit more and then there was a long pause as he and his wife just stared at each other.

I suppose it's just what marriage dies after forever, reading each other's minds. "We will be voting to LEAVE" he said. He seemed relieved. It was done. Two more for Brexit.

*It should be noted UK news today states that UK MPs are already staying they will wiggle out of the Brexit, if voted. What further evidence do people need for the EU's malignancy?

[Thaiwine]

One of things I noticed while reading about the 1975 referendum was that then there were claims of lies and exaggeration

one instance the Leave side said the price of butter would double if we stayed in, they were wrong it quadrupled.

[chiang mai]

"Investors are moving billions of pounds in assets out of British currency and assets ahead of the European Union referendum, new figures suggest.

An analysis by Sky News found £65bn left the UK or was converted into other currencies in March and April, the largest amount since the economic crash.

In the six months to the end of April, £77bn was pulled out of British pounds, compared to just £2bn in the six months to the end of last October.The figures, published by the Bank of England, are consistent with investors worrying that the pound is due for a sharp fall should Brexit to occur". http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/billions-of-pounds-taken-out-of-the-british-economy-amid-fears-of-brexit-a7069786.html

[chiang mai]

"Negotiations about the shape of the UK’s post-Brexit trade arrangements would have to start from scratch after a leave vote in the EU referendum, the head of the World Trade Organisation said as he admitted there had been no preliminary discussions with the UK government. Roberto Azevêdo, the WTO director-general, said he expected any talks to be long and difficult, adding: “We haven’t had any discussions about the process. We don’t know what the process would be. We do know it would be a very unusual situation. Trade has featured heavily during the referendum campaign, with much debate about whether a post-Brexit UK would seek to retain its membership of the European single market or aim for a looser arrangement in which exporters had the same access as other WTO members. Azevêdo said the position was complicated by the fact that all Britain’s trade commitments had been negotiated by the EU and that these would cease to apply in the event of a decision to leave".

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/07/wto-chief-brexit-trade-talks-start-scratch-eu-referendum

[chiang mai]

This one is just too funny, it's a parody or is it, maybe crystal ball stuff, dunno - Britain in 2025:

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/eu-referendum-brexit-britain-in-2025-if-we-leave-eu-a7069476.html

[Srikcir]

And I'm still waiting to hear whether the Brexit numbers on the economy pass the meter/smell test.

More negativity from the Institute for Fiscal Studies, an independent think tank:

"It assessed that leaving the EU would lead to two more years of austerity as the economy struggles to get back on track post a Brexit decision. However it also suggested that some of the economic disaster figures being put about by the vote Leave campaign were somewhat exaggerated and the U.K economy would eventually recover, but that it could take some time. It also assessed, on the other hand, that the economic predictions put out by the Brexit campaign were ‘absurd’

Latest analysis from the OECD also confirms the opinion that the U.K.’s economy would be hit significantly in post Brexit years should there be a leave vote but that also there would be "substantial negative consequences for the United Kingdom, the European Union and the rest of the world".

... an immediate knee-jerk reaction would likely see a dive in the value of the pound sterling against the US dollar and a likely decline in the value of the euro too given the boost a Brexit would give to anti-EU sentiment in many other member states."

http://news.sharpspixley.com/article/lawrie-williams-latest-polls-suggest-a-brexit-should-europeans-buy-gold/250748/

[chiang mai]

"It also assessed, on the other hand, that the economic predictions put out by the Brexit campaign were ‘absurd’".

As many times as they're told, from different sources, the Brexit guys on this forum at least just want to ignore it and tell us everything will be OK. Hmm, I wonder how they are at taking medication and reading the warning labels!

[Caps]

The European Union always was a CIA project, as Brexiteers discover

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Telegraph . . .

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/04/27/the-european-union-always-was-a-cia-project-as-brexiteers-discov/

Another great reason to leave

[sandyf]

UK: DBRS said it is not likely that it would immediately follow the UK...

UK: DBRS said it is not likely that it would immediately follow the UKreferendum on the EU by downgrading its AAA credit ratings on the UK. - DBRS said it does not anticipate that the UK government's capacity to pay itsdebt in the period directly following the vote would significantly decline. - "A vote to leave the EU would likely increase financial market volatility,weaken the currency, lower capital inflows, deepen the economic slowdown, andraise questions about Britain's longstanding relations with Europe," added DBRS.

Source: Market News International (MNI) – A Deutsche Börse company

7. June 2016 20:06:07

DBRS is a credit rating agency founded in 1976 in Toronto by Walter Schroeder, who sold the company to a consortium led by The Carlyle Group and Warburg Pincus in December 2014. Wikipedia

[chiang mai]

The European Union always was a CIA project, as Brexiteers discover

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Telegraph . . .

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/04/27/the-european-union-always-was-a-cia-project-as-brexiteers-discov/

Another great reason to leave

You haven't read the article, if you had you would have responded differently because the last paragraph reads:

"You can quarrel with Europe, or you can quarrel with the US, but it is courting fate to quarrel with the whole democratic world at the same time".

So, not only do you want out of the EU but one of your reasons for wanting that is to spite the US for pushing for its formation in the first place. Really!

[nontabury]

Well I have liquidated all my UK equities...

If the vote goes for Remain then I will reinvest as soon as the result is clear if we do vote for Britexit then I will invest in none UK equities.

If your investments are on the stock exchange,maybe better to leave them there,as it seems this has not been effected by the Referendum.

Regarding GBP this can and is moving, but strangely not very much,although this could change, not because of the referendum, but due to the US Fed altering its rates as expected.

[sandyf]

Some more scaremongering facts.

"So, we can allow into the UK goods duty free from the EU and from countries with which the EU has negotiated preferential deals. Such agreements are already in force for Turkey, Switzerland and South Korea, for example."

"On leaving the EU, the UK would no longer be party to those agreements (unless replacements had been negotiated in the meantime). Without a deal in place, we would, under WTO rules, have to impose tariffs on goods from the rest of the EU and those other countries."

"Nor could be sure how long negotiations would take.

"Two, three, four years. It can take a decade or more. It depends on the complexities of the negotiations and the appetite for members to do it quickly."In the meantime, "there would be a vacuum. The UK would be the only WTO member without a list of its commitments… it's a legal uncertainty".

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36470809

[chiang mai]

Well I have liquidated all my UK equities...

If the vote goes for Remain then I will reinvest as soon as the result is clear if we do vote for Britexit then I will invest in none UK equities.

If your investments are on the stock exchange,maybe better to leave them there,as it seems this has not been effected by the Referendum.

Regarding GBP this can and is moving, but strangely not very much,although this could change, not because of the referendum, but due to the US Fed altering its rates as expected.

"not because of the referendum, but due to the US Fed altering its rates as expected".

You alone in the world think that.

[Caps]

The European Union always was a CIA project, as Brexiteers discover

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Telegraph . . .

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/04/27/the-european-union-always-was-a-cia-project-as-brexiteers-discov/

Another great reason to leave

You haven't read the article, if you had you would have responded differently because the last paragraph reads:

"You can quarrel with Europe, or you can quarrel with the US, but it is courting fate to quarrel with the whole democratic world at the same time".

So, not only do you want out of the EU but one of your reasons for wanting that is to spite the US for pushing for its formation in the first place. Really!

My choice, Yes I did read it......Its not just about wanting to leave because the yanks want us to stay....I said 'another'

If it means not having the yanks in favour or not been at the front of the queue for trade or whatever other crap they spout then so be it

[nontabury]

Some more scaremongering facts.

"So, we can allow into the UK goods duty free from the EU and from countries with which the EU has negotiated preferential deals. Such agreements are already in force for Turkey, Switzerland and South Korea, for example."

"On leaving the EU, the UK would no longer be party to those agreements (unless replacements had been negotiated in the meantime). Without a deal in place, we would, under WTO rules, have to impose tariffs on goods from the rest of the EU and those other countries."

"Nor could be sure how long negotiations would take.

"Two, three, four years. It can take a decade or more. It depends on the complexities of the negotiations and the appetite for members to do it quickly."In the meantime, "there would be a vacuum. The UK would be the only WTO member without a list of its commitments it's a legal uncertainty".

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36470809

As has been pointed out by many, on Brexit in would be in the interest of the EU to come to a speedy agreement with the U.K. In order to safeguard their exports to the UK. On a negative the EU will try to make it as difficult as possibly for Brexit to be successful, so as to discourage those ever increasing numbers still left in the EU to follow the British example.

[sawadee1947]

I'm sure some take it as truth

[nontabury]

Well I have liquidated all my UK equities...

If the vote goes for Remain then I will reinvest as soon as the result is clear if we do vote for Britexit then I will invest in none UK equities.

If your investments are on the stock exchange,maybe better to leave them there,as it seems this has not been effected by the Referendum.

Regarding GBP this can and is moving, but strangely not very much,although this could change, not because of the referendum, but due to the US Fed altering its rates as expected.

"not because of the referendum, but due to the US Fed altering its rates as expected".

You alone in the world think that.

Not at all,many of the so called money experts are also thinking the same.

The trick is to think.

[Grouse]

This one is just too funny, it's a parody or is it, maybe crystal ball stuff, dunno - Britain in 2025:

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/eu-referendum-brexit-britain-in-2025-if-we-leave-eu-a7069476.html

Hilarious!

They should bring back spitting image for a Brexit special ?

[sandyf]

The European Union always was a CIA project, as Brexiteers discover

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Telegraph . . .

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/04/27/the-european-union-always-was-a-cia-project-as-brexiteers-discov/

Following the war, the US was obliged to help fund reconstruction in Europe, it would be naive to think that they were going to spend that money without trying to manipulate some benefit.

It is the current situation with the US that has to be taken into account and I would agree it is an area for concern. Difficult to negotiate with a nation that has no morals, the UK on its own would stand no chance.

[chiang mai]

Well I have liquidated all my UK equities...

If the vote goes for Remain then I will reinvest as soon as the result is clear if we do vote for Britexit then I will invest in none UK equities.

If your investments are on the stock exchange,maybe better to leave them there,as it seems this has not been effected by the Referendum.

Regarding GBP this can and is moving, but strangely not very much,although this could change, not because of the referendum, but due to the US Fed altering its rates as expected.

"not because of the referendum, but due to the US Fed altering its rates as expected".

You alone in the world think that.

Not at all,many of the so called money experts are also thinking the same.

The trick is to think.

It's you alone, unless you can post a reliable credible source confirming what you say. No, I didn't think so!

[i claudius]

Well I have liquidated all my UK equities...

If the vote goes for Remain then I will reinvest as soon as the result is clear if we do vote for Britexit then I will invest in none UK equities.

Well thats your 273 pounds sorted

[Caps]

Cameron/Farage Debate

[cumgranosalum]

Sense at last!

"Lead not Leave".......

https://www.facebook.com/peoplesincampaign/videos/1053759234700690/

[Grouse]

Sense at last!

"Lead not Leave".......

https://www.facebook.com/peoplesincampaign/videos/1053759234700690/

Yes, excellent!

Of course the intelligent Brexiteers will miss the point completely and go on about selling gold at the wrong time!

[dick dasterdly]

Well you asked for it

UKIP supporters are deeply unpleasant people. No humanity, no common decency. No place for such people in UK. Much same as National Front.

I may well be losing the argument to the seething masses of great unwashed, uneducated under classes. Fine you win.

I'm out.

May I suggest you snuggle up to the Americans?

BTW, try and get your facts right. Try and find out about refugees, asylum seekers, economic migrants, free movement of people, Schengen. You are so badly informed, it's just not amusing. I see Brexiteers much like the massed orks in the Lord of the Rings trilogy.

Finally, do me a favour and stay in England with your football, your dumbed down TV, your hip hop, your celebrity culture, your tattoos, your crap education, your lack of civil society. I will be elsewhere in Germany or Scandinavia.

Quote "UKIP supporters are deeply unpleasant people. No humanity, no common decency. No place for such people in UK. Much same as National Front."

You have just condemned over 4,000,000 British people without knowing any of them and they are from all walks of life, from young and old, male and female, all sorts of jobs.

Your arrogance and ignorance is showing yet again. Do you actually know ANY UKIP supporters personally?

I know quite a few personally from several walks of life, many of them professional engineers and senior managers.

To be fair, he has a point about UKIP supporters - although its always possible that supporters haven't read the policies or haven't worked out that those policies are bad news for the average and poorer paid.

I have read their policies and to be fair they available here online.

They are only a couple of click from your mouse away.

http://www.ukip.org/local2016

Same here, I read their policies online - albeit many years ago.

[dick dasterdly]

At the end of the day, the EU needs serious reform - and I'd previously thought that Brexit may force this reform.

But I now think it could only result in more right-wing policies from the Brit. govt. as its become more obvious that most wish to leave the EU for reasons diametrically opposed to mine .

[Grouse]

Cameron/Farage Debate

Watched and listened to that with great interest. I thought Farage put his case but canes across as rent-a-mouth. For a change, I thought Cameron came across as quite balanced and sensible. I give that bout to Cameron on points

[allanos]

The European Union always was a CIA project, as Brexiteers discover

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Telegraph . . .

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/04/27/the-european-union-always-was-a-cia-project-as-brexiteers-discov/

Another great reason to leave

You haven't read the article, if you had you would have responded differently because the last paragraph reads:

"You can quarrel with Europe, or you can quarrel with the US, but it is courting fate to quarrel with the whole democratic world at the same time".

So, not only do you want out of the EU but one of your reasons for wanting that is to spite the US for pushing for its formation in the first place. Really!

My choice, Yes I did read it......Its not just about wanting to leave because the yanks want us to stay....I said 'another'

If it means not having the yanks in favour or not been at the front of the queue for trade or whatever other crap they spout then so be it

I feel that the author's conclusion of the article, was a non sequitur and rather puerile. Where is the argument which he alludes to?

The United Kingdom has no argument with Europe, nor the USA, nor the world. And nor will it, post-Brexit.

Britain is simply practicing its Sovereign right (as of this present time), to ask the country what the majority of the citizens believe the

way forward should be in respect of membership of the European Union.

[RickBradford]

The Remainian anthem..........

[Grouse]

At the end of the day, the EU needs serious reform - and I'd previously thought that Brexit may force this reform.

But I now think it could only result in more right-wing policies from the Brit. govt. as its become more obvious that most wish to leave the EU for reasons diametrically opposed to mine .

I agree the EU needs serious reform and we could drive that through. We could soon be the biggest economy in Europe

I also agree that the conservatives need to be on a very short leash. I guess my politics are social democrat with no capitals. Scandinavian social justice I think. I feel the Scots also tend toward that. Whereas I personally flourished in Thatcher's Britain (venture capital start ups, Porsches, braces), I saw the immense damage done to great swathes of the country through mindless monitarism (a la Minford). It was not particularly the shedding of old industry, more the rate of change and lack of investment. The huge dole queues ate all our North Sea oil revenues. For what?