Economic recession in Pattaya?

[Timwin]

I have noticed a lot of vacant rental houses all around, much more than usual. A lot of unfinished condo projects too. A lot of completed condo buildings are also empty, if not within 1 km from a beach. Bar owners are complaining the lack of customers. Pattaya seems to going through a deep recession. The rental and sale prices are still stubbornly high.

[Pdaz]

Lot's of bikes, Pick-ups, Cars and household goods for sale on the "Stuff for Sale in Pattaya" FaceBook pages too.. Can't say I know anyone personally that is currently in the process of leaving. But does seem to be evidence of Russians, Europeans from the poorer economies and elderly Brits selling and packing up. Pattaya isn't as cheap as it once was and there are always some forced to leave forr medical reasons or to have access to better education for their kids.

[Rajab Al Zarahni]

Many prospective UK visitors have not had a pay rise for years, those UK visitors on state pension income do not receive incremental increase here as a matter of government policy and the pound sterling is on its knees following the Brexit referendum.

There doesn't seem  to be as many Americans as there used to be but I am not sure what  factors are causing this.

There still seems to be a lot of Russians.

[mcfish]

Well if Pattaya is in a recession then jomtien is booming. The Russians have overwhelmed it and bars always lots of customers and baht buses loaded to breaking point

[champers]

I have noticed that since the Chinese New Year holiday period ended there are fewer of them around. I think there are more people in total coming here, but fewer of the type that spend their evening in bars. Investors are still investing in Pattaya and surely with a view to getting a solid return. If there is a downturn now it is overstating to call it a recession.

[ExpatOilWorker]

Google these words: " Pattaya condo market hits the pause button"

 

and you will find an interesting read from the Post's Spectrum section.

[manarak]

Pattaya's economy has been slow for some years now. 2009, 2010 and 2011 were the worst years for consumer spending in the West and in 2010 currency pressure added to lower spending because Western currencies lost 20 to 25% against the Baht, so Western tourists stayed away.

 

Until 2014, Russian tourists compensated part of the shortfall, but then the Rouble lost 50% of its value, so Pattay and Thailand as a whole had to find a new solution urgently.

 

That's why they had the zero baht tours for Chinese - tourists were desperately needed - but the Chinese, as the Russians too, do not frequent bars much.

The consequence is that the bar industry has been hit very hard since 2008, and every other business in Pattaya too.

 

It's not an entirely bad thing though - I think the crisis has helped to keep in check economic models that aren't sound, such as running long-term businesses on premises that are rented short term.

 

Now I expect Pattaya's economy to slowly recover.

It looks like Trump will have a positive effect on the value of US workers' wages, and it looks like Europe is posed for some growth again - if the tensions with Russia ease, then we might see even more Russians coming to Pattaya.

It will be like "the good old times" came back.

[newnative]

On the flip side, nice, new hotels are opening left and right with still others under construction--a good sign.  Central Center, now Central Marina,  has had a wonderful makeover in just a short period and looks to be busy every time I am there.  Good for Central to step up and spend some money to protect its investment.   Terminal 21will be massive and is rising quickly--it will also have a hotel element, I think.  Good condos in good locations are mostly selling ok.  The bars and restaurants at Jomtien Complex were busy the last time I was there--and it wasn't even the weekend.  Nice to see it lively and some fix-ups happening.  The list goes on.  New businesses open, others close, demographics shift, but it doesn't seem like a  slowdown to me.

[Forkinhades]

2 posts removed for inappropriate content.

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[JSixpack]

 

You must awfully new here never to have heard of the Pattaya Perpetual Death Spiral. The phenomenon was first noted in the Pattaya Mail around 1997, but commentary reached full fruition here in the forum.

 

2007: Pattaya's Dead

2008: Is Pattaya Dead Right Now?
2009: Pattaya Is Dead Dead Dead
2010: Why Is Everything Closing Down?
2011: Even More Dead Than Last Year?
2012: What'S Next For A Beach Tourist Destination Like Pattaya?
2013: Widening Of Beach Rd Started At North End
2014: Is Pattaya really on the bones of it arse at the minute?
2015: The beach walkway? Low season is really low Pattaya is dead.

 

And one of our Death threads just finished up a few months ago after 32 pages of autopsy, death certificates, and reburial:

 

2016: Pattaya going downhill!

 

Moreover our ace TVF Real Estate Analysts just finished another 8-page exhaustive Condo Glut thread a couple months ago here:

 

this is what is also behind the facade of the Pattaya condominium market?

 

And petered out into the same conclusion as they've reached for the last 10 years or more: that we don't actually know how many unsold condos [houses] there are, we KNOW there're too many for what we've determined as optimal, we prophecy again the great Condo Crash, and we're just completely mystified, as we always have been, as to why it hasn't happened but it must be real soon now. :) And it got all global, too, demonstrating the kind of mastery of macroeconomics you can only find here at TVF.

 

So what more do you need? Read over those threads; nothing new possibly be said here that hasn't already, so then we can just not waste our time here.

 

 

[KittenKong]

6 hours ago, Pdaz said:

Can't say I know anyone personally that is currently in the process of leaving.

 

I know several. The main reasons for them leaving being age/health and the poor exchange rate/high prices. None of those reasons currently affects me but even so there is no doubt at all that I could live the way I do much more cheaply in Spain or Portugal than I can here, and the climate etc is much nicer there, and the locals generally much less grasping and more friendly and easier to comprehend.

 

Only the lack of income tax here really keeps the balance in Thailand's favour as far as I'm concerned, and it's on a knife edge.

[Pdaz]

15 hours ago, KittenKong said:

 

I know several. The main reasons for them leaving being age/health and the poor exchange rate/high prices. None of those reasons currently affects me but even so there is no doubt at all that I could live the way I do much more cheaply in Spain or Portugal than I can here, and the climate etc is much nicer there, and the locals generally much less grasping and more friendly and easier to comprehend.

 

Only the lack of income tax here really keeps the balance in Thailand's favour as far as I'm concerned, and it's on a knife edge.

Yes I can only agree. No income tax is really the only advantage if comparing with Southern Europe. Almost everything I enjoy is cheaper there.. cars, bike, wine, cheese, cold meats, olives etc. Great weather, great views and entertainment. My only reservations would be Govt, taxes and the safety/nanny state interfering with my life and the constant increase in migrants from Africa and the Middle East. I would probably go to try it out if my Thai missus didn't have a good business here and a visa was easy to get.

[rott]

16 hours ago, KittenKong said:

 

I know several. The main reasons for them leaving being age/health and the poor exchange rate/high prices. None of those reasons currently affects me but even so there is no doubt at all that I could live the way I do much more cheaply in Spain or Portugal than I can here, and the climate etc is much nicer there, and the locals generally much less grasping and more friendly and easier to comprehend.

 

Only the lack of income tax here really keeps the balance in Thailand's favour as far as I'm concerned, and it's on a knife edge.

Interesting thought KK, but Spain and Portugal being cheaper to live in, is that based on already owning a property? I assume rents there would quickly make it more expensive than here. Not a troll post but could you throw out some sample costs for comparison please.

[Pdaz]

In my case yes. I'd buy a house or apartment. Okay local council taxes and charges would be higher than what I pay in Thailand ( next to zero) then there would be water, electricity, insurance etc.

For me the real saving would be on clothes, foodstuffs, alcohol and cars. As in Thailand they are my largest costs.  The only downside for me would be paying a lot of tax..

Swings and roundabouts really..

[KittenKong]

24 minutes ago, rott said:

Interesting thought KK, but Spain and Portugal being cheaper to live in, is that based on already owning a property? I assume rents there would quickly make it more expensive than here. Not a troll post but could you throw out some sample costs for comparison please.

 

Accommodation in Europe is difficult to compare with here. There are places in Spain and Portugal where you can get a nice condo with a nice sea view for not much more than you might pay for something of the same size in Jomtien or Pattaya. The condos at that price there wont be bang in the centre of a main resort area, largely because it is far more developed and there are hundreds of resort areas all offering similar and adequate facilities and so you dont need to be near the centre of the biggest one. You simply dont get that choice here.

At the same time there are also places there where all the property costs 1M Euros or more, which is rare (unheard of?) here. But if you buy a 1M Euro condo in Europe it's a fair bet that there wont be soi dogs loitering outside it, an open refuse tip at the bottom of the road and a karaoke bar/brothel in the house next door.

 

Southern Europe isnt alone in offering good value. Florida also would have to be considered by anyone who qualifies to live there permanently (I dont).

 

All that said, I was thinking more of day-to-day expenditure and notably what I would expect to spend at the supermarket for a week's shopping. And good free/subsidised health care really has to taken into account for anyone getting older who may need it.

 

As mentioned, swings and roundabouts certainly do apply.

[Banana7]

16 hours ago, KittenKong said:

 

I know several. The main reasons for them leaving being age/health and the poor exchange rate/high prices. None of those reasons currently affects me but even so there is no doubt at all that I could live the way I do much more cheaply in Spain or Portugal than I can here, and the climate etc is much nicer there, and the locals generally much less grasping and more friendly and easier to comprehend.

 

Only the lack of income tax here really keeps the balance in Thailand's favour as far as I'm concerned, and it's on a knife edge.

What about the women? Are there lots young, attractive (slim), easy ladies looking for a older foreigner in southern Spain or Portugal?

 

[rott]

1 minute ago, KittenKong said:

 I was thinking more of day-to-day expenditure and notably what I would expect to spend at the supermarket for a week's shopping. And good free/subsidised health care really has to taken into account for anyone getting older who may need it.

 

As mentioned, swings and roundabouts certainly do apply.

Actually I was thinking of daily costs too. Plus of course the price of a pint in an "average" bar. Do Spanish bars still sell wine by the glass for next to nowt.? Five years since I have been and my memory is a bit vague. I suppose food shopping can't cost much more than here if at all. Cheap healthcare is an attraction I did not realise that was available. But same as here there are always reports of Brits packing up due to low sterling.

[Naam]

6 minutes ago, Banana7 said:

What about the women? Are there lots young, attractive (slim), easy ladies looking for a older foreigner in southern Spain or Portugal?

 

yes, tens of thousands of young attractive ladies are looking to marry elderly gentlemen, preferably age 70+, with a net worth exceeding €UR 5 million. 

[rott]

8 minutes ago, Banana7 said:

What about the women? Are there lots young, attractive (slim), easy ladies looking for a older foreigner in southern Spain or Portugal?

 

I was wondering that but did not like to ask. Doubt if there's many actively "looking for" one, I wonder what sort of incentive/compensation would sort it.

[Naam]

28 minutes ago, Pdaz said:

In my case yes. I'd buy a house or apartment. Okay local council taxes and charges would be higher than what I pay in Thailand ( next to zero) then there would be water, electricity, insurance etc.

For me the real saving would be on clothes, foodstuffs, alcohol and cars. As in Thailand they are my largest costs.  The only downside for me would be paying a lot of tax..

Swings and roundabouts really..

you forgot income tax!

[Banana7]

There are lots of places in the world that have warm winter weather, good food, low cost of living. At least 50% of the guys that retire/stay long time in Thailand, not just Pattaya, are here for the lovely Thai ladies, many of who prefer western men.

 

 

[newnative]

2 hours ago, KittenKong said:

 

Accommodation in Europe is difficult to compare with here. There are places in Spain and Portugal where you can get a nice condo with a nice sea view for not much more than you might pay for something of the same size in Jomtien or Pattaya. The condos at that price there wont be bang in the centre of a main resort area, largely because it is far more developed and there are hundreds of resort areas all offering similar and adequate facilities and so you dont need to be near the centre of the biggest one. You simply dont get that choice here.

At the same time there are also places there where all the property costs 1M Euros or more, which is rare (unheard of?) here. But if you buy a 1M Euro condo in Europe it's a fair bet that there wont be soi dogs loitering outside it, an open refuse tip at the bottom of the road and a karaoke bar/brothel in the house next door.

 

Southern Europe isnt alone in offering good value. Florida also would have to be considered by anyone who qualifies to live there permanently (I dont).

 

All that said, I was thinking more of day-to-day expenditure and notably what I would expect to spend at the supermarket for a week's shopping. And good free/subsidised health care really has to taken into account for anyone getting older who may need it.

 

As mentioned, swings and roundabouts certainly do apply.

Interesting post.  You do need to weigh everything when comparing places and prices.  For example, how much is the condo monthly maintenance fee?  Most of the small 1 bedroom condos I owned in Northern Virginia, USA had a monthly maintenance fee of around $250 USA dollars or more.  One was $500 a month!  And, that was 7 years ago. Electricity, internet, cable, etc. was extra.  By contrast, my 2 bedroom condo on the ocean here runs me $88 a month in condo maintenance fees.  Then there were real estate property taxes, which I don't have here.  I think that was around $140 a month.  Condos in Florida by the ocean seem to have fairly high monthly maintenance fees--I guess because they need expensive hurricane insurance.  Most of the small Florida ocean condos I checked out on the internet before I moved here had monthly maintenance fees of $400 or more.  No Florida state tax but there are probably property taxes to pay--if you own.    Other than the maintenance fees, the Florida condo prices seemed pretty reasonable, depending on the area, for USA.

[Pdaz]

2 hours ago, Naam said:

you forgot income tax!

I meant all Taxes.. Income tax , VAT, council tax and all the stealth charges.. 

I know I'm ahead in Thailand cos I'm certain I don't spend $100k on wine, cheese and meat..

Can't say the same for cars and bikes though

[Naam]

24 minutes ago, newnative said:

No Florida state tax but there are probably property taxes to pay--if you own.  

not probably but for sure, not low but éffing high. average Florida property taxes are ~2.5% of the assessed tax value which is approximately 20% below market value. and mind you... these taxes are of course paid by the owner but included in the rent!

[newnative]

22 hours ago, JSixpack said:

 

You must awfully new here never to have heard of the Pattaya Perpetual Death Spiral. The phenomenon was first noted in the Pattaya Mail around 1997, but commentary reached full fruition here in the forum.

 

2007: Pattaya's Dead

2008: Is Pattaya Dead Right Now?
2009: Pattaya Is Dead Dead Dead
2010: Why Is Everything Closing Down?
2011: Even More Dead Than Last Year?
2012: What'S Next For A Beach Tourist Destination Like Pattaya?
2013: Widening Of Beach Rd Started At North End
2014: Is Pattaya really on the bones of it arse at the minute?
2015: The beach walkway? Low season is really low Pattaya is dead.

 

And one of our Death threads just finished up a few months ago after 32 pages of autopsy, death certificates, and reburial:

 

2016: Pattaya going downhill!

 

Moreover our ace TVF Real Estate Analysts just finished another 8-page exhaustive Condo Glut thread a couple months ago here:

 

this is what is also behind the facade of the Pattaya condominium market?

 

And petered out into the same conclusion as they've reached for the last 10 years or more: that we don't actually know how many unsold condos [houses] there are, we KNOW there're too many for what we've determined as optimal, we prophecy again the great Condo Crash, and we're just completely mystified, as we always have been, as to why it hasn't happened but it must be real soon now. :) And it got all global, too, demonstrating the kind of mastery of macroeconomics you can only find here at TVF.

 

So what more do you need? Read over those threads; nothing new possibly be said here that hasn't already, so then we can just not waste our time here.

 

 

This is by far my favorite TV post.  I love the variations on the 'Pattaya is Dead' list starting with 2007.  Always brings a chuckle.  So, here we are at the 10th Anniversary.  Been a verrrry slow death.

[KittenKong]

4 hours ago, rott said:

Actually I was thinking of daily costs too. Plus of course the price of a pint in an "average" bar. Do Spanish bars still sell wine by the glass for next to nowt.? Five years since I have been and my memory is a bit vague. I suppose food shopping can't cost much more than here if at all. Cheap healthcare is an attraction I did not realise that was available.

 

Yes, wine and beer still widely available at prices lower than here (depending on the type of venue, or whether you buy for home consumption, of course). Food shopping may cost more or less depending on what you buy. For example, Thailand is probably the cheapest place in the world to buy chicken but anything imported costs the earth here. So if for supper you like a glass or two of wine and a nice cheeseboard you would surely find it cheaper in southern Europe (even in the UK for that matter), but if you would rather eat chicken BBQ then probably best to stay here.

 

Health care is normally subsidised/free to anyone working or receiving an EU state pension.  For Brits this may change after Brexit (but probably wont). This is a benefit that can really add up fast if you need any sort of ongoing or major health care. Other benefits like right of abode and security of property ownership (with some provisos in Spain!) cant be given a real monetary value, but they would count as plus points for most people.

[KittenKong]

5 hours ago, Banana7 said:

What about the women? Are there lots young, attractive (slim), easy ladies looking for a older foreigner in southern Spain or Portugal?

 

 

I dont know. I can appreciate that many foreigners are here for company, but I'm not one of them. From what I can see that company often works out to be quite expensive anyway, even here!

[KittenKong]

2 hours ago, newnative said:

For example, how much is the condo monthly maintenance fee?  Most of the small 1 bedroom condos I owned in Northern Virginia, USA had a monthly maintenance fee of around $250 USA dollars or more.  One was $500 a month!  And, that was 7 years ago. Electricity, internet, cable, etc. was extra.  By contrast, my 2 bedroom condo on the ocean here runs me $88 a month in condo maintenance fees.  Then there were real estate property taxes, which I don't have here.  I think that was around $140 a month.  Condos in Florida by the ocean seem to have fairly high monthly maintenance fees--I guess because they need expensive hurricane insurance.  Most of the small Florida ocean condos I checked out on the internet before I moved here had monthly maintenance fees of $400 or more.  No Florida state tax but there are probably property taxes to pay--if you own.    Other than the maintenance fees, the Florida condo prices seemed pretty reasonable, depending on the area, for USA.

 

Yes, condo fees are certainly something that needs to be considered. As you mention, some places can be quite reasonable but some can cost a lot. Though the same applies here too: condo fees in some fancy new small buildings cost nearly 10 times what a larger older building with no facilities would cost.

[Daryle]

Interest the OP says "bar owners are complaining the lack of customers." Have you ever know a time when they are not complaining!

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[manarak]

2 minutes ago, Daryle said:

Interest the OP says "bar owners are complaining the lack of customers." Have you ever know a time when they are not complaining!
 

yes, but it was quite some years ago